Analysts including Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International, as well as analysts from Barclays, JPMorgan, and Bank of America, have all mentioned that early data shows the iPhone 16 Pro series is below expectations. This has led to a general decline in Apple's stock and related concept stocks on Monday. Kuo stated that one of the key factors for the decrease in demand for the iPhone 16 series is that the main selling point, Apple Intelligence, was not released with the iPhone 16.
On Monday, due to investors' concerns about the demand for iPhone 16, related stocks of Guo Lian generally fell.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ The stock price once fell more than 3.85%, hitting a intra-day low of $213.92 since August 9th, and ultimately closed down 2.78%. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Fell nearly 2%, ending the previous three consecutive trading days of upward trend. $Cirrus Logic (CRUS.US)$ Fell nearly 6%. $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ Dropped more than 4%.
Earlier, Guo Mingkho, known as one of the most accurate analysts at Apple, indicated that the pre-sale sales volume of the iPhone 16 series in the first weekend was estimated to be about 37 million units, a year-on-year decrease of about 12.7% compared to last year's iPhone 15 series first weekend sales, the key lies in the lower-than-expected sales of the iPhone 16 Pro series. Guo Mingkho compiled data on the pre-sale sales, average delivery time, and pre-order shipping volume of each model of iPhone 16 from the Apple website to make this estimate.
An article on the Wall Street News website also provided evidence of weak sales of the iPhone 16 series. The article pointed out that on September 14, the e-commerce pre-sale performance review of the iPhone 16 series indicated that the iPhone 16 Pro Max was sold out on multiple platforms within seconds of opening for sale. However, this kind of 'popularity' is based on the premise of 'price reduction of the entire series at launch' and the pre-sale breaking price.
Guo Mingkho stated that one of the key factors leading to the decline in demand for the iPhone 16 series is that the major selling point Apple Intelligence was not released with the iPhone 16. In addition, the intense competition in the Chinese market continues to impact the demand for iPhones.
Last week, Apple held an event called 'Glowtime'. However, the first batch of iPhones with Apple Intelligence functionality will not be available until next month in the form of a test version. The most anticipated feature of the iPhone 16 series is the Apple Intelligence function.
In contrast to the unfavorable situation mentioned above, prior to the release of the iPhone 16 series, Guo Mingkho had repeatedly been bullish on the market sales performance of the iPhone 16 series.
The demand decrease is widely mentioned by major Wall Street banks.
Analysts from Barclays, JPMorgan, and Bank of America also wrote in their latest reports that, compared to last year, the delivery time may indicate a decrease in consumer demand for the latest iPhone Pro models.
According to Barclays analysts:
Based on our conversations with distributors and analysis of data from major e-commerce websites in China, the total number of pre-orders in the past few days has declined compared to the same period last year. The sales of iPhone Pro models have declined by double digits compared to the previous year, while the sales of Base and Plus models have recorded growth.
The Chinese version of Apple Intelligence will not be released until 2025, which may weaken people's early enthusiasm for the iPhone 16.
Macroeconomic conditions and competition continue to drag down iPhone sales in China. Apple has had to rely on significant discounts to help boost iPhone 15 sales in China.
JPMorgan analysts use delivery time in key markets as a demand indicator and wrote in their report:
Early delivery times indicate that the demand for the iPhone 16 Base model in the first week of pre-orders is consistent with the iPhone 15 series, while the early demand indicator for the Pro model is slightly weak compared to the iPhone 15 series.
According to analysts from Bank of America, after tracking the iPhone delivery dates on Apple's own website and various carrier websites, it is reported that
The delivery time for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models has been slightly extended, but overall, it has decreased compared to this stage in the pre-order period last year.
Although the extension of delivery dates can reflect the demand for iPhones, other factors such as supply, inventory, distribution, and pricing may also affect the delivery dates.
Apple has reduced the price of the iPhone 16 in Australia and India.
Editor/Somer