The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does Estée Lauder Companies Carry?
As you can see below, Estée Lauder Companies had US$7.74b of debt at June 2024, down from US$8.07b a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$3.40b, its net debt is less, at about US$4.34b.
A Look At Estée Lauder Companies' Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Estée Lauder Companies had liabilities of US$5.70b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$10.7b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$3.40b in cash and US$1.73b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$11.2b.
Estée Lauder Companies has a very large market capitalization of US$30.3b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Estée Lauder Companies's net debt of 1.8 times EBITDA suggests graceful use of debt. And the alluring interest cover (EBIT of 7.5 times interest expense) certainly does not do anything to dispel this impression. The bad news is that Estée Lauder Companies saw its EBIT decline by 12% over the last year. If that sort of decline is not arrested, then the managing its debt will be harder than selling broccoli flavoured ice-cream for a premium. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Estée Lauder Companies's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, Estée Lauder Companies's free cash flow amounted to 27% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
Estée Lauder Companies's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example, its interest cover is relatively strong. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Estée Lauder Companies is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Estée Lauder Companies you should be aware of.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
