The online sales performance of alcoholic beverages in August was good; in the mass market, packaged beverages benefited from the peak season of summer consumption and performed well; the dividend in the leisure snack industry is still ongoing.
It was reported by the China Securities Journal app that, according to the research report released by Open Source Securities, the online sales performance of alcoholic beverages was good in August. As the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, the baijiu market has already started pre-holiday stocking. Channels are more inclined towards top brands that have a quick turnover and can capture consumers' minds. Internal differentiation in the baijiu industry has increased. In the mass market, packaged beverages benefited from the peak season of summer consumption and performed well; the dividend in the leisure snack industry is still ongoing, with online sales in August basically flat year-on-year. Considering that the summer vacation, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day Golden Week scenes will continue to drive the terminal, it is expected that listed companies that continue to focus on launching new products and new channels will benefit. It is recommended to pay close attention to the snack food sector in the mass market.
The major viewpoints of Open source Securities are as follows:
Alcohol: online sales revenue growth, baijiu concentration ratio decreased compared to the previous period, beer concentration ratio increased compared to the previous period
In August 2024, the online sales of alcoholic beverages in the Alibaba system reached 0.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. In terms of split volume and price, the sales volume decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the average selling price increased by 9.8% year-on-year. In August, the sales of domestic baijiu sub-industry performed relatively well, with a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. The online sales of domestic baijiu accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 66%. The concentration ratio of top brands in the baijiu industry decreased by -36.2% compared to the previous period, to 43.5%. The concentration ratio of top brands in the beer industry increased by 2.2% compared to the previous period, to 32.7%.
Food: sales of leisure food remained flat, while sales of grain and oil convenience food decreased
Snack Food: In August 2024, the Alibaba system's online sales of leisure food reached 2.77 billion yuan, basically the same as the previous year. The sales volume increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the average selling price decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. Among the sub-industries, traditional pastries performed well, with a 43% year-on-year increase. The concentration ratio of top brands in the leisure food industry decreased by -1.7% compared to the previous period, to 8.3%.
In August 2024, the online sales of grain and oil fast food industry affiliated with Alibaba reached 2.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%. In terms of quantity and price breakdown, sales volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year, while the average selling price decreased by 12.1% year-on-year. The baking raw materials performed well in August 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 30.6%. The concentration of top brands in the grain and oil fast food industry increased by 0.75 percentage points to 13.62% on a month-on-month basis.
Beverage and instant cereal: Online sales of dairy products and instant cereals have decreased, while online sales of packaged beverages have increased.
Dairy products: In August 2024, the online sales of Alibaba's dairy product industry reached 0.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. In terms of quantity and price breakdown, sales volume decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while the average selling price decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. In terms of sub-industry, the low-temperature formulated milk performed well in August 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 109.2%. Online sales of ambient milk accounted for a high proportion, reaching 43.5%. The concentration of top brands in the dairy product industry decreased by 10.3 percentage points to 36.7% on a month-on-month basis.
Instant cereal: In August 2024, the online sales of Alibaba's instant cereal industry reached 0.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%. In terms of quantity and price breakdown, sales volume decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, while the average selling price increased by 1.7% year-on-year. The concentration of top brands in the instant cereal industry decreased by 0.41 percentage points to 32.7% on a month-on-month basis.
Packaged beverages: In August 2024, the online sales of Alibaba's packaged beverage industry reached 0.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. In terms of quantity and price breakdown, sales volume increased by 19.2% year-on-year, while the average selling price decreased by 9.6% year-on-year. In terms of sub-industry, carbonated drinks performed well in August 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 29.8%; flavored beverages had the second highest growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2%. Ready-to-drink tea had a higher proportion of online sales, reaching 17.2%.
As for the target sectors, it is recommended to pay more attention to Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (600809.SH), Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), etc.
Risk warning: Macroeconomic performance lower than expected, food safety risks, intensifying industry competition.
