成本相对稳定，财务费用同比下降，京福安徽持续减亏。24H1 营业成本为109.8 亿元，同比+1.8%，主要系上半年公司担当列车旅客票价收入增长、为非担当列车提供路网服务收入增长所致，24H1 实现毛利率47.4%，同比提升3.3pcts；24H1 管理费用为4 亿元，同比+0.7%，财务费用9.3 亿元，同比-27.5%，主要系上半年公司存量借款减少，财务费用利息支出减少所致。24H1京福安徽公司实现净亏损1.5 亿元，同比减亏4.2 亿元，其中Q2 实现净亏损约1 亿元，同比减亏2.2 亿元。Q2 较Q1 亏损有所扩大，主要由于一季度有春运需求支撑，预计Q3 暑运催化下持续减亏。The Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail released its 2024 semi-annual report. 24H1 achieved revenue of 20.86 billion yuan, +8.2% year over year, achieved net profit of 6.36 billion yuan, +23.8% year over year, and achieved net profit of 6.35 billion yuan without return to mother, or +23.7% year over year.
Among them, 24Q2 achieved operating income of 10.76 billion yuan, +4% year-on-year, achieved net profit of 3.39 billion yuan, +16.6% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 3.39 billion yuan without deduction to mother, and +16.5% year-on-year.
There was a slight decline in the main line and significant growth across the line. The company's revenue increased in the first half of the year, and the railway passenger transport market recovered. The 24H1 Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail Main Line carried 24.709 million passengers, -1.1% over the same period. The operating mileage of the cross-line train reached 48.502 million kilometers, +7.9% compared to the same period, and the operating mileage of trains on the Beijing-Fu-Anhui Company line reached 18.984 million kilometers, +10.5% compared to the same period last year. The Q3 summer travel season was quite good. From August 1 to 31, the total number of passengers sent by railways across the country was +6.7%, with an average of 14.312 million passengers per day. It is expected that the company's main line transmission volume and cross-line ranking will maintain good growth under the influence of the Q3 summer travel season.
Costs are relatively stable, financial expenses have declined year-on-year, and Beijing, Fujian, and Anhui have continued to reduce losses. 24H1's operating costs were 10.98 billion yuan, +1.8% year over year, mainly due to the increase in the company's passenger fare revenue in the first half of the year, and the increase in revenue from providing road network services for non-responsible trains. 24H1 achieved a gross profit margin of 47.4%, an increase of 3.3 pcts year on year; 24H1 management expenses were 0.4 billion yuan, +0.7% year over year, financial expenses were 0.93 billion yuan, and -27.5% year over year, mainly due to a decrease in the company's stock loans in the first half of the year and a decrease in interest expenses on financial expenses. 24H1 Jingfu Anhui achieved a net loss of 0.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year loss of 0.42 billion yuan. Of these, Q2 achieved a net loss of about 0.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year loss of 0.22 billion yuan. The loss in Q2 increased compared to Q1, mainly due to the support of demand from the Spring Festival travel season in the first quarter. It is expected that losses will continue to decrease under the catalyst of the Q3 summer travel season.
Investment advice. In the short term, passenger traffic and cross-line numbers are expected to maintain good growth under the catalyst of the Q3 summer travel season. In the long run, the company has great potential for cross-line growth. Beijing, Fujian, and Anhui are expected to continue to reduce losses. The Hu-Su-Shanghai Railway and Beijing-Xiongshang High Speed Rail are scheduled to open and operate by the end of 24. After opening, the railway networking effect around Anhui is prominent, and the number of cross-line routes is expected to continue to grow. We expect the company's net profit to be 12.97, 13.56, and 15.16 billion yuan respectively in 24-26, corresponding to a 24-year PE of 19.9x and PB of 1.3x, maintaining a “highly recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Competition risks brought about by other means of transportation, risk of untimely liquidation of China Railway and changes in clearing policies, risk that capacity growth between Beijing, Fujian and Anhui falls short of expectations, risk of major safety accidents in high-speed rail, etc.
