Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingcheng stated that the pre-ordered sales of the iPhone 16 series in the first weekend are estimated to be around 37 million units, a decrease of about 12.7% compared to the first weekend sales of the iPhone 15 series last year, primarily due to lower-than-expected sales of the iPhone 16 Pro series.
Guo Mingchi pointed out that the shipment time of the iPhone 16 Pro series is significantly lower than that of the 15 Pro series. Despite the increase in pre-order inventory, the decrease in sales compared to the first weekend indicates that the key issue is the lower-than-expected demand. The significant year-on-year increase in pre-order inventory of the iPhone 16 Pro Max is due to improvements in the production yield of the periscope camera and Apple's optimistic outlook for the demand for this model.
One of the possible key factors for the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is that the major selling point, Apple Intelligence, cannot be launched simultaneously with the release of the iPhone 16. In addition, the intense competition in the Chinese market continues to impact iPhone demand. Although both the iPhone 16 Plus and the standard version saw year-on-year sales growth in the first weekend, their contribution to overall iPhone shipments is limited.
Although the first weekend pre-order sales of the iPhone 16 Pro series declined compared to the previous year, Guo Mingchi believes that there will not be significant changes in the production plans of the supply chain in the short term. Apple still has the opportunity to improve sales by releasing Apple Intelligence and promoting sales during the subsequent peak seasons (the year-end peak season in Europe and the US and China's singles' day sales), which will be a key focus for observing changes in iPhone demand.
In addition, the strategy of equipping the 16 Pro with a periscope camera and keeping the price of the iPhone 16 series unchanged has limited impact on the first weekend sales of the iPhone 16. If the release of Apple Intelligence in the fourth quarter and promotion during the peak season have limited impact on iPhone 16 shipments, it is believed that Apple will have a more aggressive iPhone product strategy in 2025 to boost demand.
Editor/Lambor