鲍威尔确认美联储将很快开始降息后，金价上涨。较低的借贷成本对黄金有利，因为黄金不支付利息。自2023年7月以来，美联储一直将关键政策利率维持在5.250-5.5%的目标区间内，这是20多年来的最高水平。The ING Group stated that the gold rally has just begun, and the long-awaited rate cut by the Federal Reserve is bringing new momentum to the gold price. The institution has raised its forecast for the gold price, believing that the average gold price in 2025 will be $2700.
ING pointed out that gold has been one of the best-performing commodities among major commodities so far this year. Gold has risen by more than 20% year to date, benefiting from expectations of Fed rate cuts, strong central bank purchases, and strong Asian buying. Geopolitical risks escalating and the uncertainty before the November US election have increased safe-haven demand, supporting gold's record rally this year.
At the Jackson Hole Symposium held in August, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that the bank would cut interest rates on September 18 and said, 'It is now time for policy adjustments, and the direction forward is clear'.
After Powell confirmed that the Fed will soon start cutting rates, the gold price rose. Lower borrowing costs are favorable for gold because gold does not yield interest. Since July 2023, the Fed has kept the key policy rate within a target range of 5.25-5.5%, the highest level in over 20 years.
The current problem facing the gold market is the pace of the Fed's easing. The latest US employment data, which is mixed, has intensified the ongoing debate about the extent of the Fed's rate cut at the September meeting. ING US economists believe the Fed will opt for a 50 basis point cut, but the results could vary widely.
Fed prepares to cut rates, gold hits new highs:
(Source:ING)
After years of outflows, the ETF funds have turned positive.
(Source:ING)
Demand for gold ETFs has also seen a recovery, with global gold ETF inflows for four consecutive months, all regions recording positive inflows, and Western funds leading in August.
When the price of gold rises, investors usually increase their holdings of gold ETFs, and vice versa. However, for most of 2024, the amount of gold ETF holdings has been declining, while the spot gold price has reached a new high. ETF flows finally turned positive in May.
The total net long position of COMEX has also continued to rise, increasing by 17% compared to the end of August, reaching the highest month-end level since February 2020.
(Source:ING)
Despite the rise in gold prices, central bank demand for gold strengthened in July. Data from the World Gold Council shows that net purchases by central banks more than doubled in July, reaching 37 tons. This represents a month-on-month increase of 206%, the highest monthly purchase volume since January (when central bank purchases totaled 45 tons).
The National Bank of Poland was the largest buyer in the month, followed by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan and the Reserve Bank of India.
In 2023, central banks around the world increased their gold purchases by 1,037 tons, the second highest annual purchase volume in history, with 1,082 tons being the record high in 2022. Looking ahead, ING expects central bank demand to remain strong in the current economic environment and geopolitical tensions.
(Source:ING)
ING summarizes and predicts, "We believe that the long-awaited interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will drive gold prices to new highs. We also believe that the U.S. presidential election in November will continue to fuel the upward momentum of gold prices until the end of the year. Geopolitical tensions will continue to be one of the key factors driving gold prices. The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the tense relationship between China and the United States, indicate that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term. Central banks are also expected to continue increasing their holdings of gold, which should provide support for gold prices."
"We now expect the average price of gold in the fourth quarter to be $2,580, with an annual average price of $2,388. Gold prices are expected to continue to rise next year, with an average price of $2,700 in 2025."
