This week's important schedule overview

• The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is imminent! There are divergent views on the extent of the interest rate cut.

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. It is expected that there will be a rate cut for the first time - the key question is whether it will be a 25 or 50 basis point cut. After a week of intense swings, CME's "Federal Reserve Watch Tool" showed on Friday that the market's probability of choosing either option remained evenly split.

Since Federal Reserve officials have entered a quiet period, the movements of macro reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed megaphone," are particularly important in the first few days of next week. This week, he hinted that a 25 basis point rate cut is the "path of least resistance," but at the same time, he pointed out that starting with a 50 basis point rate cut can reduce the market's debate on the extent of future rate cuts. Analysts believe that Nick Timiraos' rekindling of market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September should not be underestimated. It is his article that has triggered strong expectations in the market for a "50 basis point" rate cut, pushing the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones closer to new historical highs.

As important as the extent of the rate cut next week, the Federal Reserve will also release its latest economic projections, including officials' expectations for future rate paths.

• U.S. retail sales data for August will be released on Tuesday.

It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales in the United States in August will slow down from 1% last month to 0.1%. If the data falls short of expectations, there may be a risk of a return of recession concerns. Conversely, if the economy continues to show resilience, this will weaken the need for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

CNBC host and former hedge fund manager, Jim Cramer, called it the last important data before the Federal Reserve makes its decision. He said that the report is a good indicator of consumer spending and he predicts that the data will be weak. Consumer spending is a major pillar of the US economy and one of the reasons why the most aggressive interest rate cycle by the Federal Reserve in decades has not led to an economic recession.

• Huang Renxun will discuss AI with the CEO of Salesforce.

On Tuesday, Pacific Time 16:15-17:00 (Wednesday, Beijing Time 7:15-8:00), Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun will discuss AI with Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff. The market expects Huang Renxun to provide more information on AI.

• Microsoft CEO Nadella will host a special event to discuss the next phase of innovation for Copilot.

According to The Verge, on Monday at 11:00 Eastern Time (23:00 Beijing Time), Microsoft CEO Nadella will host a special event to discuss the next phase of innovation for Copilot. Against the backdrop of Huang Renxun's talk this week and OpenAI's release of the "GPT-3" large model, Nadella's performance will also be closely watched.

• FedEx will release its earnings after the market closes on Thursday.

As it is still the earnings reporting season, there aren't many earnings reports worth paying attention to. FedEx, the major delivery company in the United States, will release its earnings after the market closes on Thursday, and options trading indicates that there may be a 7% volatility in the stock price at that time. Investors will closely watch the delivery giant's expectations for the end-of-year holiday season.

• Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision.

The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Friday. The central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates by 15 basis points in July and has since indicated that another rate hike is imminent, leading investors to bet with an 85% probability that there will be another 10 basis point rate hike before the end of the year. The divergence in monetary policy strategies between the central bank and the rest of the world has caused the yen to surge and triggered a wave of arbitrage liquidation, with many blaming the hawkish Bank of Japan for exacerbating the global market turmoil in early August.

However, over the past month, Japan's inflation rate and wage growth have exceeded expectations, giving the Bank of Japan more confidence that the benign wage-price cycle will keep the inflation rate above 2%, which should pave the way for further policy normalization in the future.

However, it is expected that the Bank of Japan will not take any policy action at this meeting, so the focus will be on whether Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his colleagues will continue to hint at further rate hikes in the future. Any confirmation of market expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise rates again before the end of the year could further strengthen the yen.

• China's LPR for September will be announced.

On Friday, the central bank will announce the latest LPR. In August, the one-year LPR was 3.35% and the LPR for more than five years remained unchanged at 3.85% after both rates were lowered in July.

Wen Bin, Chief Economist at China Minsheng Bank, believes that under the conditions of increased room for monetary policy easing, overall downward revision of interest rate levels, and the need to boost effective market demand, loan interest rates set by financial institutions are expected to continue in a downward trend, especially with the impact of asset repricing driven by LPR cuts. However, after the release of debt control measures, the downward momentum and progress of deposit interest rates may weaken, putting further pressure on banks' interest rate spreads. As a result, the space for further LPR rate cuts in the short term is limited.

Monday, September 16th

Keywords: Microsoft CEO hosting special event, Midea Group lottery results, Japanese stock market closed

On Monday, in terms of economic events, at 23:00 Beijing time on Monday, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ CEO Nadella will host a special event to discuss the next phase of innovation for Copilot.

In terms of new stocks, $MIDEA GROUP (00300.HK)$ will announce the lottery results.

Regarding the closing situation, the Japanese stock market is closed.

September 17th, Tuesday

Keywords: USA Retail Sales MoM, Midea Group Co., Ltd IPO

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the USA will release the retail sales MoM for August.

In terms of new stocks, $MIDEA GROUP (00300.HK)$ Will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

September 18th, Wednesday

Keywords: Huang Renxun discusses AI with Salesforce CEO, Hong Kong stock market holiday

On Wednesday, in terms of economic events, from 7:15 to 8:00 Beijing time on Wednesday, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ CEO Huang Renxun and $Salesforce (CRM.US)$ CEO will discuss AI.

In terms of market conditions, Hong Kong stocks are closed.

Thursday, September 19

Keywords: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims, Bank of England interest rate decision, FedEx earnings.

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the usa will release initial jobless claims for the week.

In terms of economic events, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 am, and the United Kingdom's central bank will also announce its interest rate decision on the same day.

In terms of performance, $FedEx (FDX.US)$ will release earnings after the market closes.

Friday, September 20

Keywords: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, Japan core CPI annual rate, China LPR, U.S. stock market "quadruple witching day"

On Friday, in terms of economic data, Japan will release Core CPI data, and China will also announce the latest LPR.

In terms of economic events, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. In addition, Friday is the "quadruple witching day" in the US stock market, which may cause additional volatility in the US market.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor/Jeffy