Sunnova Energy International Inc. (NYSE:NOVA) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 116% in the last quarter. Meanwhile over the last three years the stock has dropped hard. In that time, the share price dropped 67%. So the improvement may be a real relief to some. While many would remain nervous, there could be further gains if the business can put its best foot forward.
While the stock has risen 9.8% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.
Because Sunnova Energy International made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
Over three years, Sunnova Energy International grew revenue at 45% per year. That is faster than most pre-profit companies. The share price has moved in quite the opposite direction, down 19% over that time, a bad result. This could mean hype has come out of the stock because the losses are concerning investors. When we see revenue growth, paired with a falling share price, we can't help wonder if there is an opportunity for those who are willing to dig deeper.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for Sunnova Energy International in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 26% in the last year, Sunnova Energy International shareholders lost 11%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 2%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with Sunnova Energy International (including 2 which are concerning) .
Sunnova Energy International is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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