At the beginning of 2020, the US-Iran conflict escalated, the situation in the Middle East was turbulent, and crude oil and gold prices rose sharply. On January 6, the price of gold soared to around 1,588 US dollars, reaching its highest point since April 2013; the price of Brent crude oil rose 3.7%. Benefiting from this, crude oil and gold-themed funds rose collectively.

Yesterday, Huaan's petroleum funds rose and fell; funds such as Guangfa Petroleum, China Southern Crude Oil, and Harvest Crude Oil all rose more than 7% yesterday.

Gold ETFs also saw their biggest increase in a single day in the past three months. All four on-market gold ETFs rose more than 2%, leading the way for on-market funds. Cathay Pacific's gold fund saw the biggest increase, reaching 2.27%, which is also the best performance of gold ETFs since September last year. Over the three trading days of 2020, the cumulative increase of all 4 gold ETFs was around 3.4%. At the same time, gold ETF trading has also become more active. The turnover rate of the Yifangda Gold ETF reached 63.69%, with a transaction of 1,336 billion yuan; the turnover rate of the Huaan Gold ETF was 22.57%, and the transaction amount reached 1,613 billion yuan.

Gold QDII also showed significant gains. Harvest Gold, Yi Fangda's Yiji Gold, and Huitianfu's Tianfu's Tianfu Gold rose 2.38%, 1.75%, and 1.81% respectively yesterday.

A number of investors said that gold has long-term allocation value, so it is recommended to hold it for a long time, and there is no need to set a band.

Xu Zhiyan, assistant general manager of Huaan Fund and senior director of the Index and Quantitative Investment Department, said that at present, investors' demand for gold is quite strong. The global macroeconomic economy has recovered in the short term, but it is still weak in the medium to long term. Coupled with the overcirculation of global currencies, real interest rates in some countries are even negative. As a safe-haven variety, gold is a very important asset allocation. The continuing escalation of the US-Iran conflict has once again triggered investors' desire for gold assets.

Xie Yi, manager of Qianhai Open Source Fund, is also quite optimistic about the 2020 gold trend. It is recommended to hold it for a long time and not be in a band. Xie Yi said that there are two major factors affecting gold trends. Among them, US economic fundamentals and the Fed's monetary policy are more important, and the international situation is a secondary influencing factor. The stage we are currently in is quite special; it coincides with the so-called period of depression. However, during the slump in technological innovation, gold was more affected by the impact of events than at other stages. Moreover, during a period of depression, the probability that gold will be impacted by events will also increase.

Xie Yi believes that the main driving force for gold in 2019 came from fundamentals — stagflation in the US economy and a shift in monetary policy. In 2020, the main driver will be the impact of events. The US recession has come to an end, it is difficult to have a marginal worse impact, and monetary policy has already changed. “2020 is very different from last year. This year, we are mainly focusing on various international events, including the actions of US President Trump and the situation in the Middle East, as well as possible geopolitical events in the middle. But it's not easy to grasp in terms of time, so I recommend holding it for a long time, not a band.” he said.

Investing calmly indicates that gold assets are both a catalyst for short-term risk aversion and the root cause of long-term negative interest rates, and have long-term allocation value.

Regarding crude oil trends, the Jianxin Fund believes that the oil market is greatly affected by geopolitics. It is expected that Iran's crude oil production and exports will remain low, and oil prices are expected to rise further.