Last night, the market changed rapidly, with all asset classes rising across the board. The next focus is whether the market can stabilize around the 60,000 level. Currently, the market is about to enter a sideways phase, and the next change will be next week.

The current market rally is largely due to investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve may announce a 50 basis point rate cut next Wednesday.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)Former president of the New York Fed, Bill Dudley, said there are sufficient reasons for further interest rate cuts after the meeting.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Fed watch tool currently shows a 49% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, higher than Thursday's 28%.

Currently, on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has broken through and stood above 58,000, which means that the short-term correction is about to end. However, there will definitely be speculation around 60,000 this weekend, and it is expected to gradually adjust upwards afterwards.

The real resistance above is around 62,800. When this level is broken and held, it will truly initiate a daily chart-level counterattack, leading the crypto market to rise again, and then a major rebound in the long term will occur.

How will the current interest rate cut and the election affect the cryptocurrency market?

The US presidential election has a significant impact on the short-term trend of the US stock market. Historically, there is often a significant fluctuation in the months leading up to the election. Therefore, the market tends to wait and watch, and make major decisions after the election results are announced. However, the US stock market tends to perform better in the year following the election.

The election also has a certain impact on the short-term trend of gold. As a safe-haven asset, the demand for gold also increases during the election period, leading to continuous price rises in the months leading up to the election.

Although the election has a significant impact on the US stock market, gold, and other assets in the short term, it has a relatively small impact on their long-term price performance and does not cause any abnormality in the financial market. In fact, in the short term, the election has little impact on the trend of the US dollar and the macroeconomy.

This is because the medium to long-term performance in the financial market is often influenced by economic factors such as inflation trends. The outcome of the presidential election is not a significant factor of influence.

Currently, the cryptocurrency market led by Bitcoin has reached trillions of dollars, and it has moved from the so-called alternative assets to the mainstream vision, no longer on the fringes. Bitcoin is also increasingly affected by macro factors, including market liquidity, Fed rate cuts and hikes, US elections, etc.

When the Fed cuts interest rates and global capital liquidity significantly increases, it is also the time when BTC continues to rise in price, and macro liquidity still plays a decisive role in the cryptocurrency market.

In addition, in recent months, important reference values for the Fed's interest rate cuts are the non-farm payroll data and CPI data, once announced, they often bring considerable fluctuations to the cryptocurrency market, and BTC is becoming increasingly closely linked with the macro financial markets.non-farm payroll dataOnce announced, CPI data often brings significant volatility to the cryptocurrency market in a short period of time. Currently, BTC is becoming more closely linked to the macro financial market, and the influence of macro factors should not be ignored.

It is expected that market volatility will further intensify in the near future.

Bitcoin finally ended its upward trend this week. This price trend is consistent with the pattern of increased volatility in the recent low-timeframe. If this trend continues, we may easily see BTC testing the range of $62,000 to $64,000 next week.

Although rate cuts are good news for risk assets, it is unlikely that asset prices will continue to rise from now on. Therefore, be prepared for continued volatility.

Given the current market uncertainty, the market for the remaining time this month may be quite unstable as it reacts to broader economic indicators, although short-term fluctuations are expected due to traders' reactions to economic indicators.

The recent price trend of Bitcoin is largely influenced by expectations of an impending interest rate cut and speculation about a new round of interest rate cuts. These macroeconomic factors, combined with changes in investor sentiment, are driving market dynamics.

Currently, the key support and resistance levels for BTC are around $50,000, which is crucial for traders as it may determine the next direction of BTC price movement. However, with increasing institutional participation and mainstream adoption, we may see these levels change in the coming months.ResistanceThe upcoming market situation, in my opinion, can result in two scenarios:

First: BTC forms a head and shoulders bottom pattern in the current market, and the next 20 days will continue to be a predominantly volatile market, with the 25 basis point interest rate cut in September having little impact on the major market. The market will continue to fluctuate upwards, and a major market will start in mid-October.

Second: After the interest rate cut is implemented and economic recession is confirmed, Japan starts causing trouble, there will be another wave of deep contract liquidation, testing the support at $49,000. However, I believe that once it falls below $52,000, the target will not be $49,000, but the range of $46,000 to $48,000. However, this is not expected to last for a long time, as this price level is mainly for contract liquidation.

Second: After the interest rate cut is implemented and economic recession is confirmed, Japan will start to cause trouble, which will lead to a wave of deep contract liquidation. Bitcoin will test the support level at 49,000 again. However, I believe that once it falls below 52,000, the target will not be 49,000, but the range of 46,000 to 48,000. However, this should not last very long. This price level is mainly for contract liquidation.

Has the bull market begun? How should we escape the peak again?

After the 2016 market halved, it started in 163 days.

After the 2020 market halved, it broke through in 163 days.

Currently, it has been 145 days since the market halved, with 18 days remaining until 163 days. Usually, the peak of a bull market is often 500 days after Bitcoin halving.

Both of the previous bull markets were like this. Will this bull market be the same?

At the very least, let it be one of the reference basis. The 500th day after the halving of Bitcoin should be in the 9~10 months of the 25th year.

The current altcoin track is worth laying out markers.

SUPER: SuperVerse is a decentralized ecosystem that unifies multiple products under a governance token SUPER. SuperVerse's products have two core verticals: NFT market and gaming. This week, SuperVerse launched the L3 chain Super Champs Chain based on the Base chain, which is a game-optimized L3 chain, attracting investments from institutions such as Coinbase Ventures.

SUI: The game console of Sui chain will start pre-sale this week, similar to the airdrop of Solana on mobile phones, and it can be clearly seen that funds are entering the Sui ecosystem this week. The BLUB and LIQ on the chain have risen rapidly this week, creating a wealth effect on the Sui chain. Grayscale Fund announced this week that Sui trust has been opened to qualified investors who invest in SUI, increasing the purchase volume of SUI tokens.

FET: The super artificial intelligence alliance ASI, formed by FET, AGIX, and OCEAN, proposed to add the distributed artificial intelligence computing project Cudos to its collective, and convert the token cudos of Cudos into FET at a ratio of 112.427:1, with a 15-point price difference, leading to a rapid rise in FET this week.