① Exane BNP Paribas, the securities division of BNP Paribas, drastically lowered Micron's rating, and the target price was directly “cut”. ② According to it, HBM will have a production capacity of about 0.4 million tablets by 2025, and the demand for the same period will be 0.168 million tablets, or less than 1/2 of the supply. ③ As one of HBM's most important customers, Nvidia's GPU demand will also affect HBM demand to a certain extent.
“Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” September 14 The shortage of HBM production capacity seems to have just passed, and expectations of overcapacity have already arrived.
Recently, Exane BNP Paribas, the securities division of BNP Paribas, drastically downgraded Micron's rating from Outperform (Outperform) to Underperform (Underperform), and the target price directly “dropped” from $140 to $67. The reason was that they were concerned about HBM's overcapacity and the impact on traditional DRAM pricing.
The bank indicated that due to the oversupply of HBM, DRAM prices were revised faster than expected, which could lead to a decline in the wider DRAM market.
It is expected that by the end of 2025, HBM's production capacity will greatly exceed demand, which will further depress prices: by the end of 2024, HBM's installed wafer production capacity will reach 0.315 million wafers per month, and will reach about 0.4 million wafers by 2025 — while demand for the same period is 0.168 million wafers, or less than 1/2 of the supply.
Exane BNP Paribas further pointed out that by 2025, Micron's performance will lag behind other AI semiconductor manufacturer peers. The main reason is the oversupply of HBM, which has lowered the average selling price of Micron memory chips; and if Micron's memory chips do drop in price as a result, the stock price may even fall below the target price of 67 US dollars.
Previously, SK Hynix and Micron both mentioned that all HBM production capacity was sold out in 2024, and production capacity was basically distributed in 2025; SK Hynix also indicated that order visibility could reach the first quarter of 2026.
According to a June research report by Huafu Securities, according to estimates, demand for HBM will double in 2024 and 2025, demand is expected to reach 2.08 billion GB in 2025, and the overall market size is expected to reach 31.1 billion US dollars. Considering the time difference between HBM and GPU shipments and the establishment of HBM inventory by GPU manufacturers, even if the original factory expands production on a large scale, HBM will continue to be in short supply for a long time in the future. Based on this, the original Q2 manufacturer has already negotiated a price for 2025 HBM this year, and the price will initially increase by 5 to 10%.
It is worth mentioning that as one of HBM's most important customers, Nvidia's GPU demand will also affect HBM's demand to a certain extent.
Hwang In-hoon has already handed out a “reassurance pill” this week. He said at the Goldman Sachs technical conference, “Demand (for popular chip products) is so strong. Everyone wants to get the first batch, and everyone wants to order the most.” He added that customer demand for the latest generation of Blackwell chips is strong. “It's really tight; we're doing our best.”
Overall, Exane BNP Paribas appears to be the first agency to issue a “HBM overcapacity” warning under the current circumstances.
However, it must be acknowledged that semiconductors are a highly cyclical industry. After an upward cycle of “demand bursts, out of stock prices, and investment expansion,” it often follows a recession cycle of “shrinking demand, overcapacity, and falling prices.” It is also difficult for HBM to get out of this cycle. Now that the first alarm has sounded, is the reversal really imminent? Investors are waiting for an answer.