Author: David Canellis, Blockworks; Compiled by Tao Zhu, Golden Finance
Political memecoins — PoliTiFi — had a glorious period in the first half of the year. But it has been on hold since then.
The total market capitalization of the five best-known tokens MAGA (TRUMP), MAGA Hat (MAGA), Doland Tremp (TREMP), Jeo Boden (BODEN), and Kamala Horris (KAMA) peaked in early June, exceeding $1.25 billion.
They are now worth less than $0.17 billion, and the decline is close to 90%.
According to CoinGecko, the remnant of ConstitutionDAO lost an auction in late 2021 to Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, who auctioned off a rare first edition of the US Constitution to Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, which now accounts for almost two-thirds of the entire PolitiFi market. However, whether it should actually be juxtaposed with political mimicry memecoins, etc., is open to debate.
At this time last year, PolitiFi didn't even exist. This election season is a big one, and the biggest Trump memecoin (Trump memecoin) will be launched in August 2023 — just as Bitcoin prepares for its massive rally.
ETH's performance has been lagging behind the S&P 500 for the past 14 months
Bitcoin's bull run between October and March did provide cover for PolitiFi. The chart above shows the market capitalization of the five major political memecoins (the faded area behind) and the performance of Bitcoin (orange line), Ethereum (purple line), and the S&P 500 (blue line).
As you can see, PolitiFi has basically reflected ETH's price trend during this period — the purple line follows the shape of PolitiFi's market capitalization — and Bitcoin is performing better, at least for now.
Is PolitiFi over? Probably not. But considering that Kamala Harris-themed memecoins didn't perform as well as Trump's memecoins, this somewhat explains the problem.
One simple reason for this particular type of memecoin's decline may be that no new interested holders are entering its market, and their liquidity is likely to surpass sellers and drive up prices.
MAGA's holders are spread across four different blockchains, of which around three-quarters are on Ethereum and Solana
This chart magnifies the market value of the largest Trump meme coin (shown in the orange line) and maps it to changes in the number of new holders.
Note that the main points in Trump's narrative directly coincide with the influx of new holders.
Thousands of addresses put MAGA (TRUMP) in their bags around the time of the Supreme Court's election vote ruling, Trump's “sealing fee” conviction, and the July assassination attempt.
There has been no such luck since, and as of Friday morning, there were only 424 new holders following Tuesday's debate with Harris. Meanwhile, Polymarket's odds on Trump's November win have dropped from 52% to 49%.
All in all, of the 80,190 addresses holding MAGA (TRUMP), around 30% (24,300) were bought after the token hit an all-time high of $17.51 in early June. After losing 9 out of 10 of its value, it is currently trading at $2.25.
Of course, the 80% drop is one of cryptocurrency's oldest traditions. But if time were available for Trump's headlines to revive PolitiFi, now is the time.