In terms of the market.

Currently, the large cap market has been moving as expected. Today, it broke through the 60,000 level. As suggested before, for short-term investors who have bought at a low price or made good profits, it may be a good time to sell. On Saturday and Sunday, there will definitely be speculation around the 60,000 level. If the market remains stable at 60,000, there will be opportunities for altcoins to enter. If it cannot hold steady, it will decline again, and another opportunity could be found to enter at a good position.

Currently, the altcoins are rising, but they are not rising as much. Even if there are some increases, it's only by a little. Only a few relatively strong ones will follow the large cap, while the rest are still slumping. When the large cap falls, these altcoins fall even faster than anyone else, so it's important to pay attention to short-term profit protection.

What everyone is focusing on now is nothing more than interest rate cuts and the presidential election.

The upcoming US presidential election still has a significant impact on the short-term trend of the US stock market. Historically, there tends to be substantial volatility in the months leading up to the election. Therefore, the market often chooses to wait and see, making major decisions only after the results are announced. It is worth mentioning that the US stock market tends to perform better in the year following the election.

Interestingly, the election also has a certain impact on the short-term trend of gold. Similar to the US stock market, gold, as a fund-avoidance asset, also experiences increased demand during the election period, leading to continuous rises in the months before the election.

Although in the short term, the US presidential election will have a significant impact on US stocks, gold, etc., the long-term impact on their price performance is relatively small, and has not caused any abnormalities in the financial markets. Even in the short term, the election has little impact on the US dollar and the trend of the macro economy.

This is because the medium and long-term performance in the financial markets is often influenced by economic parameters such as inflation trends. Who is elected is not a major factor.

Currently, the cryptocurrency market led by Bitcoin has reached trillions of dollars, and it has moved from the so-called alternative assets to the mainstream vision, no longer on the fringes. Bitcoin is also increasingly affected by macro factors, including market liquidity, Fed rate cuts and hikes, US elections, etc.

When the Fed cuts interest rates and global capital liquidity significantly increases, it is also the time when BTC continues to rise in price, and macro liquidity still plays a decisive role in the cryptocurrency market.

In addition, in recent months, important reference values for the Fed's interest rate cuts are the non-farm payroll data and CPI data, once announced, they often bring considerable fluctuations to the cryptocurrency market, and BTC is becoming increasingly closely linked with the macro financial markets.non-farm payroll dataand CPI data, once announced, often bring significant fluctuations to the cryptocurrency market in the short term, and BTC is becoming increasingly closely linked with the macro financial markets.

As a cryptocurrency market investor, the influence of macro factors cannot be ignored.

How much does the election affect the cryptocurrency market?

In the long term, the impact is not significant.

During the bull market period from 2016 to 2020, which was under Trump's administration, and from 2020 to 2024, which will be under Biden's administration, the cryptocurrency market, primarily BTC, experienced strong bullish trends.

If we count from the election period until September, as shown in the chart below, BTC prices may fluctuate, but they still obtain certain returns. Among them, the earliest period of Trump's administration had the highest market returns.

The bull market cycle in 2017 and the unlimited QE initiated due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 brought massive inflows of funds to the cryptocurrency market.

During Trump's administration, he mentioned Bitcoin on Twitter as a cryptocurrency, but did not recognize its value.

During Biden's presidency, the tolerant attitude towards cryptocurrencies continues, and the crackdown by the U.S. SEC has become more stringent after the FTX incident. However, overall, the United States still maintains a leading position in technological innovation and capital inflows in the crypto field.

The bull market cycle in 2021 and the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF by the U.S. SEC in early 2024 have also brought considerable activity and enthusiasm to the crypto market. As of September 11th, the total net inflow of BTC spot ETF has reached 17 billion US dollars.

From the performance of the past two market cycles, it can be seen that regardless of who is in power, it has not affected the upward trend of the crypto market.

Although the impact of the election is limited, the factors that truly have a long-term impact on the crypto market are the industry's own technological development and the decision-making of the Federal Reserve meetings.

In the short term, the impact is significant.

Although the impact of the election on the crypto market is not significant in the long term, it shows a considerable impact in the short term.

On the morning of July 14th, Trump was assassinated, and on that day, BTC rose by 2%, breaking through the $0.06 million mark. The next day, it rose by 6% again, reaching around $0.065 million, and then continued to rise after that.

On July 28th, Trump attended the highly anticipated Bitcoin conference, after which the market saw a shift from bullish to bearish once the positive news dried up.

On July 29th, after Bitcoin had just risen above $0.07 million, it began to decline, even experiencing panic selling at the beginning of August.

On August 23rd, when independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy suspended his campaign and supported Trump, Bitcoin surged from around $0.06 million to nearly $0.065 million, with a single-day increase of over 6%.

In recent days of the US presidential candidate debates, the market has been relatively subdued overall due to the lack of mention of cryptos by Harris and Trump.

Therefore, the next important time point is November 5th. By then, BTC may experience intense fluctuations after the election results.

In past cycles, when the strict enforcement by the US SEC led to bearish trends, it often marked a short-term bottom for the market. Once the US presidential dust settles and everything becomes certain, the strong wait-and-see sentiment in the crypto market changes to bold bets.

The US presidential election will have a certain impact on the regulation, policies, and other aspects of the crypto industry, but it will not undergo major changes. The election will also have a certain boosting effect on certain product protocols such as Polymarket. In terms of market trends, the long-term impact is not significant, but at important time points, it will still bring significant short-term fluctuations to the market.