Following this week's 'Hart Debate' in the U.S. election, the American pop singer Taylor Swift, nicknamed "Meimei" by her fans, has voiced her support for the Democratic Party candidate Harris, becoming a "pleasant surprise" for the Democratic Party.

After "Mei Mei" voiced her support, the U.S. government voting website Vote.gov experienced a brief surge in traffic, indicating the immense influence of this global superstar, capable of effectively motivating her fans to register and vote.

However, the extent of this global pop superstar's influence on the final outcome of this year's U.S. election may be a more complex question.

Young voters will be more likely to vote.

First, it is certain that Taylor Swift's endorsement is definitely advantageous to the Democratic Party.

Although Taylor Swift's statements on Instagram are very cautious and she does not directly urge her fans to vote for the Democratic Party, but such a voice will definitely benefit the Democratic Party, because it can increase the voter turnout of young voters in the United States, and young voters are an important support base for the Democratic Party.

It is worth noting that Taylor Swift's fans are mostly young people: a 2023 Morning Consult poll found that among those who consider themselves Swifties, 45% are millennials aged 28 to 43, and 11% are members of Gen Z aged 18 to 28.

A July analysis by the Tufts University youth civic engagement organization CIRCLE found that compared to the previous presidential election four years ago, the voter registration rate of young voters (18 to 29 years old) in 36 states in the United States has significantly decreased, with Iowa experiencing the largest decline of 47%.

The voter registration rates for young voters have declined in many states in the USA.

In this context, being able to encourage these young voters to register and vote is definitely a bullish development for Democrats, as a survey conducted by Pew Research this year shows that about two-thirds of young voters (18 to 29 years old) support the Democratic Party, and middle-aged voters (30 to 49 years old) also tend to lean towards the Democratic Party.

After Taylor Swift encouraged her fans to participate in voting on Instagram, the United States government's voting website vote.gov attracted over 0.405 million visitors within 24 hours, demonstrating its motivating effect on voters.

In fact, this kind of influence has been demonstrated before: in 2018, Taylor Swift posted on Instagram urging her fans to actively vote, which attracted over 0.065 million new voter registrations within 24 hours; last year, she called on her fans again to register for elections on Instagram, resulting in a 1226% increase in traffic to vote.gov within one hour.

Just how much influence does Taylor Swift's endorsement have?

However, the second question is how much impact Taylor Swift's endorsement will have on Harris' victory, which is likely to be more complex.

In January of this year, the American media Newsweek conducted a poll asking, 'Would you be more likely to support a candidate endorsed by Taylor Swift?'

However, the survey results found that for the general public (not just Swift's fans), Swift's support does not seem to have a significant impact on the election results.

Although 18% of voters say they are "more likely" or "significantly more likely" to vote for a candidate supported by Swift, 17% of people say they are "less likely" to vote for someone supported by Taylor. In addition, the majority of people (55%) say they will not change their voting intention due to Swift's endorsement.

In fact, if we look back at the history of celebrities' involvement in politics, it seems that their influence on American politics is not as great as imagined.

A report from North Carolina State University in 2010 found that despite the active involvement and high-profile support of the Democratic Party by celebrities George Clooney and Angelina Jolie, their celebrity endorsements actually have little impact on politics.

A report from Northwestern University found that although famous talk show host Oprah Winfrey endorsed Barack Obama in the 2008 election, helping him win about 1 million additional votes in the party's primary elections, this influence was limited to the Democratic Party's primary elections, and people still had to choose between two Democratic candidates. However, when measuring the impact of celebrity endorsements on electoral college members of two different parties, the situation seems to be different.

David Jackson, a professor of political economy at Bowling Green State University, found that the impact of celebrity endorsements may not be the same for supporters of different parties.

He found that Democrats usually believe that celebrity support can bring votes to their candidates, but Republicans do not think so, possibly because they tend to shape an image of being "anti-elite" and "closer to the grassroots." In addition, celebrity endorsements often do not appeal to moderate voters, but rather are more likely to provoke dislike.

Most of Taylor Swift's fans already support the Democratic Party.

And if we focus on Swift's fan base, the influence of "Taylor's endorsement" on their voting tendencies may also be limited.

According to a Morning Consult poll, Swift's fans were mostly Democrats: among those who claimed to be Swift fans, 55% were Democrats, 23% were Republicans, and 23% were independents.

In other words, for most Swift fans, whether or not Swift speaks out, they would already support the Democratic Party; and for those fans who support the Republican Party, it may be difficult for Swift's statement to change their voting tendencies.

Margaretha Bentley, a professor at Arizona State University, has specifically studied the social influence of Swift—and she is unsure if Swift will have an impact on the election. Earlier this year, she asked her students if Swift would change their voting tendencies in the election.

Some people say they will follow Swift's footsteps, while others say that Swift's statement may prompt them to learn more about her supporters, but some students state: "When it comes to what coffee they want to drink, they will listen to celebrities, but when it comes to politics, it's different."

At the MTV Video Music Awards ceremony on Wednesday, Morgan Paris, a fan of Swift, made a representative comment: "She (Swift) expressed her feelings, which is good. But my opinion is that I think her politics and her music are two separate things, so you can't combine them."

Is it really a surprise that Swift supports the Democratic Party?

In fact, if we look back, we will find that Swift has always been inclined to support Democrats—because the Democratic Party's principles align with her support for women's rights, LGBTQ groups, and other positions.

In 2018, Taylor Swift publicly declared her political stance for the first time, on October 7th, two days before the voter registration deadline in Tennessee, she expressed support for Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen running for Tennessee Congress. On October 7th, 2020, Swift also voiced her support for Democratic candidate Joe Biden.

In 2016, there is evidence to suggest that she leaned towards supporting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, but she did not publicly voice her support.

In 2019, during an interview, she admitted that during the 2016 election, the overwhelming support of celebrities for Hillary Clinton actually strengthened the negative perception that Hillary belonged to the elite class, which was the reason why she didn't publicly support Hillary at that time.

After Donald Trump won the 2016 election, she felt somewhat regretful for not publicly voicing her support for the Democratic party at that time: "Unfortunately, in the 2016 election, your political opponent (Trump) turned celebrity endorsements into weapons against you."

Therefore, in this election, Swift's choice to support the Democratic party seems to have only been a matter of time.

In 2018, despite Swift openly endorsing Democratic candidate Phil for Tennessee Congress, Phil ultimately lost to Republican candidate Marsha Blackburn by a significant margin - indicating that Swift's support may not have had as much impact on the election results as imagined.

David Jackson, a professor of political economics at Bowling Green State University, also wrote in his latest article:

"Swift's influence may actually play a role in encouraging Democratic supporters who may not have been actively voting to cast their vote for Harris on November 5th...but it may not be enough to win over Republican supporters to the Democratic party."

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