Will the Fed's rate cut weakened recession expectations, help boost the rebound of BTC?

BTC 及 ETH 本周概况

本周加密货币市场整体呈现反弹的走势：

比特币：本周，比特币整体呈现反弹的趋势。市场交易者对经济衰退交易的情绪有所缓解，普遍认为美国经济在未来出现衰退的概率比较低，在本周公布了美国 8 月 CPI 数据之后可以看出 CPI 已经得到了较大的缓解，并且向美联储所关注的 2% 又进了一步，从而使市场大部分交易员押注下周美联储会降息 25BP，不过只是代表防御性降息，美国经济并没有出现衰退，所以本周继上两周大幅下跌之后出现了反弹。

以太坊：本周，以太坊走势弱于比特币，反弹的力度低于大盘。除了外部宏观因素之外，最主要的是以太坊现在对未来发展方向比较混乱，以太坊开发者们的意见市场并不买账，而市场用户们的意见以太坊开发者们并不采纳，所以造成了严重的分歧，最主要是以太坊链上并没有出现创新和发展迅速的明星项目，从而缺乏了在未来讲故事的能力和造富效应，使得资金纷纷从以太坊链上转移到其他各个公链中，使以太坊生态建设面临着严峻的挑战。

Altcoin 本周概况

整体表现

本周，市场情绪指数快速恢复，已经上升至 65.5%，较上周的 11% 大幅上涨。由于市场本周逐步反弹，市场情绪从极度恐惧转为贪婪。

Altcoin 市场本周跟随大盘的反弹走势并且反弹力度强于大盘，本次反弹主要是因为市场认为美国经济在未来发生衰退的可能性降低，减缓了对衰退的担忧，从而引发了本周的上涨。并且其中有很多资金是在以太坊生态中流出，开始流向其它各个公链，使得各个生态的项目均有所上涨。

重点事件

美国 CPI 数据低于预期、低于前值

9 月 11 日，公布美国 8 月末季调 CPI 年率为 2.5%，大幅度低于前值 2.9%，低于预期值 2.6%，表明了现阶段美国通胀迅速下降，被控制的非常好，数值在不断的接近美联储期望值 2%，从而更加确定了下周美联储的降息行为。并且市场现阶段最为担心的是美联储以后的降息次数以及幅度，通过本次 CPI 数据市场理解为 CPI 数据不断下降处于可控阶段，不会轻易造成反弹，从而美联储的降息会持续多次。

本周市场讨论方向

市场对 ETH 面临的困境和未来发展展开讨论

最近一段期间内以太坊的表现不是很好，再加上以太坊生态内部对于发展方向的分歧，导致了市场上展开了对以太坊面临困境的分析，主要得出的是因为：随着越来越多的交易在二层解决方案上处理，原本会使以太坊主网受益的费用和经济活动越来越多地被重新定向。这种转变可能导致 ETH 需求减少，并且 Gas 费显著减少，而 Gas 费的大幅下降也影响了 ETH 的燃烧数量，使得 ETH 又恢复了通胀。

针对于现阶段的现状，市场上对以太坊提出的意见有很多，归纳为：普遍认为以太坊应该放弃继续对基础设施建设的大力投入，而应该认识到现在困境的本质，需要引入大量的顶级应用来吸引更多的用户；通过 Eigenlayer 等项目来增加质押 ETH 的收入；增加对以太坊 Gas 费中基础收费的标准，来提高以太坊的收入，从而通过 EIP-1559 来增加对 ETH 的燃烧；修改 Blob 的定价机制等。

下周 Crypto 大事件预告

周二（9 月 17 日）美国 8 月零售销售月率；Stable Rise

周三（9 月 18 日）特朗普所涉「封口费」案宣判；TON Asia-Singapore

周四（9 月 19 日）美联储利率决议；Solana Breakpoint ；DeFi 2049—Beyond THE Horizon；Impact 2049

周五（9 月 20 日）ETHGlobal Singapore

周六（9 月 21 日）美国证券交易委员会（SEC）决定比特币 ETF 期权

下周展望

1. 比特币：目前比特币缺乏自身的利好因素，其价格波动主要受市场消息和宏观数据的影响，并不能够单独走出自己的走势。不过我预计下周比特币的走势会在美联储公布降息决议前后进行震荡，并且受美联储公布的点阵图影响较大。

2. 以太坊：本周以太坊较大盘走势较弱，ETH/BTC 汇率对一直处于下跌的趋势。我预计在未来 ETH 的表现会比 BTC 较差，ETH/BTC 汇率对会持续下跌。

3. Altcoin：虽然本周 Altcoin 紧跟大盘的反弹走势并且反弹力度强于大盘，但是 Altcoin 中并没有出现一个统一的市场热点，而出现的创新赛道又处于早期并不完善，所以造成了资金比较分散不能够对某一赛道或者项目形成一个合力，再加上现阶段市场上的资金并不充裕并且交易用户缺乏对未来发展的信心，从而会使 Altcoin 在未来只会跟随大盘的走势，不会走出自己独立的走势。所以预计下周 Altcoin 会继续跟随 BTC 的走势。

BTC and ETH Weekly Overview

The overall cryptocurrency market showed a rebound trend this week:

Bitcoin: Bitcoin as a whole showed a rebound trend this week. Market traders' sentiment about recession transactions has abated somewhat. It is widely believed that the probability of the US economy experiencing a recession in the future is relatively low. After the US CPI data for August was released this week, it can be seen that the CPI has been greatly mitigated and has gone one step further to the 2% that the Federal Reserve is concerned about, thus, most market traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25BP next week, but this week there has been a rebound after the sharp decline of the previous two weeks.

Ethereum: This week, the trend of Ethereum was weaker than that of Bitcoin, and the strength of the rebound was lower than that of the general market. In addition to external macroeconomic factors, the main thing is that Ethereum is currently confused about the future direction of development. The market is not buying the opinions of Ethereum developers, and Ethereum developers are not accepting the opinions of market users, which has caused serious differences. The most important thing is that there are no star projects with rapid innovation and development on the Ethereum chain, which lacks the ability to tell stories in the future and have a wealth effect, causing capital to be transferred from the Ethereum chain to various other public chains, making the construction of the Ethereum ecosystem face serious challenges.

Altcoin Weekly Overview

Overall performance

This week, the market sentiment index recovered rapidly and has risen to 65.5%, a sharp increase from 11% last week. As the market gradually rebounded this week, market sentiment changed from extreme fear to greed.

The Altcoin market followed the rebound trend of the general market this week and the rebound was stronger than the general market. This rebound was mainly due to the market's belief that the possibility of a future recession in the US economy was reduced and concerns about the recession were mitigated, thus triggering this week's rise. Moreover, much of this capital has flowed out of the Ethereum ecosystem and has begun to flow to various other public chains, causing projects in various ecosystems to rise.

Key events

US CPI data is lower than expected and lower than the previous value

On September 11, it was announced that the US quarterly adjusted CPI rate for the end of August was 2.5%, which is significantly lower than the previous value of 2.9% and lower than the expected value of 2.6%, indicating that US inflation is falling rapidly at this stage and is being controlled very well. The value is constantly close to the Fed's expectations of 2%, thus further determining the Fed's interest rate cut next week. Furthermore, what the market is most worried about at this stage is the number and extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts in the future. Through this CPI data, the market understands that the continuous decline in CPI data is in a manageable stage and will not easily cause a rebound, so the Fed's interest rate cuts will continue many times.

This week's market discussion direction

The market discusses the difficulties faced by ETH and its future development

Ethereum's performance in the recent period has not been very good. Coupled with differences in the direction of development within the Ethereum ecosystem, the market has carried out an analysis of the difficulties faced by Ethereum. The main findings are that as more and more transactions are processed on second-tier solutions, the costs and economic activities that would otherwise benefit the Ethereum main network are increasingly being redirected. This shift may lead to a decrease in demand for ETH and a significant reduction in gas fees, while the sharp drop in gas fees also affected the amount of ETH burned, causing ETH to return to inflation.

Regarding the current situation, there are many opinions put forward on Ethereum in the market. They are summarized as follows: it is widely believed that Ethereum should abandon continued heavy investment in infrastructure construction, and should recognize the nature of the current difficult situation and need to introduce a large number of top applications to attract more users; increase the revenue of staking ETH through projects such as Eigenlayer; increase the standard of basic charges in Ethereum gas fees to increase Ethereum revenue, thereby increasing the burning of ETH through EIP-1559; revising the pricing of blobs mechanisms, etc.

Teaser of major crypto events next week

Tuesday (September 17) US retail sales monthly rate for August; Stable Rise

On Wednesday (September 18), Trump's “sealing fee” case handed down; TON Asia-Singapore

Thursday (Sept. 19) Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision; Solana Breakpoint; DeFi 2049—Beyond The Horizon; Impact 2049

Friday (September 20) EthGlobal Singapore

On Saturday (September 21), the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decided on Bitcoin ETF options

Next week's outlook

1. Bitcoin: Currently, Bitcoin lacks its own favorable factors. Its price fluctuations are mainly affected by market news and macro data, and cannot break out of its own trend alone. However, I expect next week's Bitcoin trend to fluctuate before and after the Federal Reserve announces a decision to cut interest rates, and will be greatly affected by the bitmap announced by the Federal Reserve.

2. Ethereum: The overall trend of Ethereum was weak this week, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate pair has been on a downward trend. I expect ETH to perform worse than BTC in the future, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate pair will continue to decline.

3. Altcoin: Although Altcoin closely followed the rebound trend of the market this week and the rebound was stronger than the market, there was no uniform market hotspot in Altcoin, and the innovation circuit that appeared was not perfect in the early stages, so that funds were scattered and unable to form a synergy with a certain track or project. Coupled with insufficient capital in the market at this stage and trading users lacked confidence in future development, this would cause Altcoin to only follow the trend of the general market in the future and not break out of its own independent trend. Therefore, it is expected that Altcoin will continue to follow the trend of BTC next week.

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美联储降息衰退预期减弱、是否会助推BTC反弹？