Focus on CHK and US stocks

U.S. stocks closed | S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose for the fifth consecutive week, with nvidia up nearly 16% for the week and broadcom up 22% for the week.

美消费信心反弹，一年通胀预期近四年最低，前“美联储三把手”支持降息50个基点，“美联储通讯社”等观点令大幅降息押注显著升温重返“五五开”。小盘股指周五涨超2%，芯片指数周涨10%，英伟达周涨近16%，博通周涨22%。两年期美债收益率重返两年低位，日元升破141近九个月最高，离岸人民币升破7.10元，比特币涨向6万美元。油价止步多周连跌，黄金周涨超3%一个月最佳。

美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心初值超预期反弹，一年通胀预期降至近四年最低，8月进口价格创八个月最大跌幅，表明通胀将继续消退。

前纽约联储主席杜德利称美联储下周有理由降息50个基点，叠加昨日"美联储通讯社”等知名财经记者言论，美联储下周大幅降息的市场押注重新显著抬升至“五五开”。

投资者乐观认为降息50个基点并不意味着衰退即将来临，50基点降息预期大增提振风险偏好，美股三大指数均收于接近两周高点，利率敏感的小型股涨2.49%领涨，因为小企业更多地依赖借款和浮动利率贷款。

欧洲央行行长拉加德暗示欧央行12月降息的可能性大于10月，抑制德债收益率跌幅并继续抬升欧元，下周美联储、英国和日本央行均有议息会议，此外，俄罗斯意外加息100个基点至19%。

周五小盘股涨2.49%强势领涨，标普纳指五日连涨，且标普500大盘周累涨超4%，纳指周涨约6%，均创2024年迄今最佳单周表现，芯片股指涨1.7%至月内最高，中概指数跌0.6%后收涨。芯片指数全周累涨约10%，标普公用事业和必需消费品板块创新高，英伟达周涨近16%，博通周涨超22%领跑芯片股：

美股三大指数全线上涨：标普500指数收涨30.26点，涨幅0.54%，报5626.02点，连续五个交易日反弹，本周累计上涨4.02%。与经济周期密切相关的道指收涨297.01点，涨幅0.72%，报41393.78点，本周累涨2.60%。科技股居多的纳指收涨114.3点，涨幅0.65%，报17683.98点，本周累涨5.95%。纳指100收涨0.47%，本周累涨5.93%。衡量纳指100科技业成份股表现的纳斯达克科技市值加权指数（NDXTMC）收涨0.58%，本周累涨7.06%。对经济周期更敏感的罗素2000指数收涨2.49%，本周累涨4.36%。恐慌指数VIX收跌2.99%，报16.56，本周累跌26.01%。

美股行业ETF全线收涨。区域银行收涨2.69%，银行业ETF涨2.44%，生物科技指数ETF、半导体ETF等至少涨1.29%，能源业ETF涨0.56%，科技行业ETF涨0.5%，全球科技股指数ETF涨0.47%，金融业ETF涨0.29%表现倒数第二，医疗业ETF涨0.21%。本周，半导体ETF累计反弹10.19%，科技行业ETF反弹8.10%，此前两周先后跌1.62%和7.45%，网络股指数ETF反弹4.55%，上周跌4.83%，区域银行ETF涨1.79%，银行业ETF涨1.72%，能源业ETF跌0.49%，延续上周下跌5.77%的表现。

标普500指数11个板块全线上涨。标普公用事业板块收涨1.41%，电信板块涨1.02%，可选消费板块涨0.51%，信息技术/科技板块涨0.42%，能源板块涨0.42%，保健板块涨0.19%表现最差。
“科技七姐妹”涨跌不一。谷歌A收涨1.79%，欧盟反垄断官员可能会命令谷歌停止反竞争的广告技术行为，但目前不会下达分拆令。微软收涨0.84%，特斯拉收涨0.21%。英伟达接近抹去超1%的盘初跌幅收跌0.03%，本周累涨15.81%，结束此前连续两周回落，创8月16日当周以来最佳单周表现。苹果低开高走一度转涨0.6%，最终仍收跌0.12%，iPhone 16系列预售时，苹果官网崩了。Meta收跌0.19%，亚马逊收跌0.27%。

芯片股多数走高。费城半导体指数收涨1.68%，本周累涨9.99%。行业ETF SOXX收涨1.79%；英伟达两倍做多ETF收跌0.33%。安森美半导体收涨3.45%，英特尔收涨1.55%，科磊收涨2.48%，高通收涨1.67%，美光科技收涨4.6%，Arm控股收涨5.88%，迈威尔科技收涨0.24%，阿斯麦收涨2.02%，博通收涨1.9%，台积电美股收涨0.62%，AMD收涨1.02%。
AI概念股涨多跌少。甲骨文高开近8%后收涨0.4%，仍创新高，全周涨14%。Serve Robotics收涨18.12%，C3.ai收涨0.57%，BigBear.ai收涨1.94%，超微电脑收涨3.4%，戴尔科技收涨1.92%，CrowdStrike收涨0.79%，Palantir收涨1.95%，Snowflake收涨0.6%，而英伟达持股的AI语音公司SoundHound AI收跌0.41%，BullFrog AI收跌3.28%。
中概股涨跌不一。纳斯达克金龙中国指数收涨0.06%，报5618.88点，本周累计上涨1.03%。ETF中，中国科技指数ETF（CQQQ）收跌0.67%，本周累跌0.55%。中概互联网指数ETF（KWEB）收跌0.43%，本周累涨0.55%。
热门中概股中，哔哩哔哩收跌3.76%，拼多多低开6.3%后收跌2.4%，极氪收跌2.26%，京东收跌1.54%，阿里巴巴收跌0.94%，百度收跌0.5%，唯品会收跌0.08%，而网易收涨0.18%，美团ADR收涨0.22%，携程网收涨0.4%，腾讯控股ADR收涨0.57%，理想汽车收涨1.27%。蒙牛乳业ADR收涨1.57%，小鹏汽车收涨4.06%，蔚来收涨5.11%。
现货金续创历史新高，带动金银矿业股上涨。金银矿业股中，BVN涨8.15%，AG涨5.87%，科尔黛伦矿业收涨6.28%，赫克拉矿业收涨5.9%，哈莫尼黄金收涨2.94%。铜矿股中，MUX收涨1.18%、HBM收涨1.94%、泰克资源ADR收涨1.14%、淡水河谷ADR收涨1.35%。
其他重点个股中：
（1）波音收跌3.69%，波音公司最大工会宣布罢工，影响737 Max等大多数飞机的生产，穆迪将波音置于下调观察名单，或下调评级至垃圾级。
（2）莫德纳收跌2.01%，延续周四跌12.36%的遭遇，报68.28美元，本周累计下跌6.32%，在砍掉部分研发开支、挤压未来数年新推产品数量之际，连续第四周下跌。
（3）特朗普概念股DJT收涨11.79%，报17.97美元，本周累涨5.09%，特朗普称不会套现公司股票。
（4）美国钢铁涨超10%后收涨近4%，美国可能会推迟就日本制铁并购该公司的交易做决定。
（5）优步盘前涨8%，收盘涨6.5%，扩大与Alphabet旗下无人驾驶汽车部门Waymo的合作。

欧洲股市周五收高，德国上市公司Zalando和西门子能源至少涨超9%领跑：

泛欧Stoxx 600指数收涨0.76%，报515.95点，本周累计上涨1.85%。周五零售类股涨1.84%领涨，汽车类股涨1.6%。食品饮料类股跌0.32%为唯一下跌板块。成分股中，法国金融服务公司Worldline宣布其首席执行官离职，并下调整全年业绩预期，股价一度暴跌逾19%，Zalando收涨10.30%，西门子能源收涨9.44%。
德国股指收涨0.98%，本周累涨2.17%。法国股指收涨0.41%，本周累涨1.54%。意大利股指收涨0.34%，本周累涨0.83%。西班牙股指收涨1.23%，本周涨近3.29%。英国股指收涨0.39%，本周累涨1.12%。荷兰AEX指数收涨0.71%，本周累涨2.31%。

美联储下周降息50个基点预期显著升温，两年期美债收益率跌超5个基点，拉加德的利率表态抑制德债收益率跌幅，两年期英债收益率本周跌约12个基点：

美债：尾盘时，对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率跌5.68个基点，报3.5595%，全天处于下跌状态，本周累跌6.38个基点。美国10年期基准国债收益率跌2.08个基点，报3.6532%，本周累计下跌5.29个基点。
消息面上，摩根大通经济学家们重申美联储下周降息50个基点的预期，10月联邦基金利率期货迎来一波买盘。但西太平洋银行称，美联储下周可能降息25个基点，美国10年期国债料已在3.6%左右见底。高盛仍预计下周美联储将降息25个基点，并在今年剩余的每次会议上(11月与12月)都会降息。
欧债：欧元区基准的10年期德债收益率跌0.3个基点，本周累计下跌2.4个基点。两年期德债收益率跌1.4个基点，本周累跌1.9个基点。法国10年期国债收益率跌1.1个基点，本周累跌4.3个基点。意大利10年期国债收益率跌3.2个基点，本周累跌11.4个基点。英国10年期国债收益率跌1.3个基点，本周累跌11.8个基点，两年期英债收益率跌1.7个基点，本周累跌15.4个基点。

降息50基点预期升温，美元指数DXY跌0.25%，一度失守101至一周最低，本周累跌约0.06%，日元本周累涨约1.1%，逼近140关口创八个半月最高，离岸人民币涨超186点上逼7.10元。比特币涨破6万美元大关：

美元：衡量兑六种主要货币的一篮子美元指数DXY跌0.25%，报101.114点，北京时间21:12刷新日低至100.883点，日内整体呈现出V型走势、全天处于下跌状态，本周累计下跌0.06%，9月12日曾涨至101.839点。
彭博美元指数跌0.31%，报1226.11点，22:44刷新日低至1224.66点，日内整体呈现出震荡下行走势，本周累跌0.47%，期内交投区间为1238.02-1224.66点。

昨日有"美联储通讯社”的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos发表评论后，美元大幅下跌，为过去七周内第六次下跌

非美货币：欧元兑美元大致持平，本周累跌0.10%。英镑兑美元大致持平，本周跌约0.04%。美元兑瑞郎跌0.25%，本周累涨0.69%；商品货币对中，澳元兑美元跌0.27%，本周累涨0.53%；纽元兑美元跌0.42%，本周累跌0.26%；美元兑加元涨0.04%，本周累涨0.10%。
日元涨穿141：日元兑美元尾盘涨0.70%，报140.82日元，美股早盘时最高涨至140.29日元，本周累涨1.07%。日元兑欧元涨0.70%，报155.98日元，本周累涨1.14%；日元兑英镑涨0.71%，报184.837日元，本周累涨1.06%。
消息面上，汇丰上调日元兑美元汇率预期，认为日元的避险属性在回归，且美联储正在转向降息周期。汇丰将美元/日元第四季度预测从之前的148日元调整为142日元，将2025年第二季度预测从144调整为138日元。
离岸人民币：离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元尾盘涨186点，报7.1004元，本周整体交投于7.1367-7.0845元区间、呈现出冲高回落走势。
加密货币集体走高。市值最大的龙头比特币尾盘涨2.61%，报60110美元，本周累计上涨大约13.39%。第二大的以太坊尾盘涨2.99%，报2430.50美元，本周累涨10.83%。

墨西哥湾风暴过后，油市丧失继续反弹的动力，美油周五收跌0.46%，布油收跌0.5%，但全周累涨，打破连续多周下跌颓势：

美油：WTI 10月原油期货收跌0.32美元，跌幅0.46%，报68.65美元/桶，本周累涨近1.45%。美油在美股早盘刷新日高涨近2%至70.32美元，美股午盘后跌至日低68.47美元，日内跌幅超0.7%。
布油：布伦特11月原油期货收跌0.36美元，跌幅0.50%，报71.61美元/桶，本周累涨0.77%。布油在美股早盘刷新日高涨近1.8%升破73.20美元，随后持续下跌，美股午盘后最低跌超0.7%跌破71.50美元。
消息面上，美国CFTC数据显示，布伦特和WTI原油看涨情绪创历史新低。麦格理集团表示，全球石油市场2025年恐面临“严重供应过剩”，非OPEC国家供应量增加，叠加需求迟缓，限制OPEC+放松产量限制的必要性，预计布伦特原油本季度报79美元/桶，第四季度73美元，2025年第一季度70美元，第二季度64美元，第三季度69美元，第四季度72美元。
天然气：美国10月天然气期货收跌超2.20%，报2.3050美元/百万英热单位，本周累涨约1.32%。

50基点降息预期大增，现货金盘中升破2586美元再创历史新高，本周累涨超3.2%，创五个月来最大周涨幅，期金突破2600美元也创新高，钯金全周涨15%，伦铜两周最高：

黄金：COMEX 12月黄金期货尾盘涨1.08%，报2608.40美元/盎司，美股午盘时刷新盘中历史最高位至2614.60美元，本周累涨3.31%。现货黄金午盘时刷新历史最高位涨超1%至2586.10美元，本周累计上涨3.21%。
白银：COMEX 12月白银期货尾盘涨3.22%，报31.075美元/盎司，本周累涨10.26%。现货白银午盘时最高涨超3.5%升破30.92美元，本周累涨9.97%。
伦敦工业基本金属集体上涨。经济风向标“铜博士”涨超0.998%，报9308美元/吨，本周累计上涨约3.47%。伦锌涨幅1.68%，本周累涨超6.84%。伦铝涨约2.12%，本周累涨约5.51%。伦锡涨幅1.27%，本周累涨约2.52%。伦铅收涨16美元，本周累涨超4.12%。而伦镍跌约1.19%。
COMEX铜期货涨0.61%，报4.2210美元/磅，本周累涨3.52%。

编辑/Somer

The rebound in US consumer confidence, the near four-year low in one-year inflation expectations, the support of the former "Fed's three hands" for a 50 basis point rate cut, and the significant increase in betting on substantial rate cuts by the "Fed's communication agency" and others, have returned to the "fifty-fifty" level. Small cap stocks rose by more than 2% on Friday, chip index rose by 10% over the week, NVIDIA rose by nearly 16% over the week, and Broadcom rose by 22% over the week. The two-year US Treasury yield returned to a two-year low, the yen rose above 141, the highest in nearly nine months, offshore renminbi rose above 7.10 yuan, and bitcoin rose to $0.06 million. Oil prices stopped the multi-week decline, and gold rose by over 3% for the best month in a month.

The preliminary value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence in September in the United States rebounded more than expected, with the one-year inflation expectation falling to the lowest level in nearly four years. The largest drop in import prices in August in eight months indicates that inflation will continue to recede.

Former New York Fed Chair Dudley said there is a reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. Coupled with comments from prominent financial journalists such as "Fed Communication Agency" yesterday, market expectations for a significant rate cut by the Fed next week have significantly increased to a 50-50 chance.

Investors are optimistic that a 50-basis-point rate cut does not mean that a recession is imminent. The sharp increase in the expectation of a 50-basis-point rate cut boosts risk appetite. The three major U.S. stock indices closed near two-week highs, with small-cap stocks rising 2.49%, leading the gains. Small businesses rely more on borrowing and floating rate loans.

ECB President Lagarde hinted that the possibility of an interest rate cut by the ECB in December is greater than in October, which restrained the drop in German bond yields and continued to push up the euro. Next week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will all hold interest rate meetings. In addition, Russia unexpectedly raised interest rates by 100 basis points to 19%.

Small-cap stocks rose 2.49% on Friday, leading the gains strongly. The S&P and Nasdaq both rose for five consecutive days, with the S&P 500 large-cap index up over 4% for the week, and the Nasdaq up about 6%, both marking the best weekly performance so far in 2024. Chip stocks rose 1.7% to a monthly high, while China concept stocks fell 0.6% before closing higher. The chip index rose by about 10% for the week, with the S&P utilities and consumer staples sectors hitting new highs. Nvidia rose nearly 16% for the week, and Broadcom led chip stocks with a gain of over 22%.

All three major U.S. stock indices rose: the S&P 500 index closed up 30.26 points, or 0.54%, at 5626.02 points, rebounding for five consecutive trading days with a cumulative increase of 4.02% for the week. The Dow Jones, closely linked to the economic cycle, closed up 297.01 points, or 0.72%, at 41393.78 points, up 2.60% for the week. The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, closed up 114.3 points, or 0.65%, at 17683.98 points, rising 5.95% for the week. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.47% and was up 5.93% for the week. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the Nasdaq 100 technology sector stocks, closed up 0.58% and was up 7.06% for the week. More sensitive to the economic cycleE-mini Russell 2000 Index It rose 2.49% and gained 4.36% this week. The fear index VIX fell 2.99% to 16.56, a weekly decline of 26.01%.

The Nasdaq rose nearly 6% this week, marking the largest weekly gain since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish turn starting in November 2023.

US industry ETFs rose across the board. Regional banks rose 2.69%, banking ETFs rose 2.44%, biotech index ETFs and semiconductor ETFs rose at least 1.29%, energy industry ETFs rose 0.56%, technology industry ETFs rose 0.5%, global tech stocks index ETFs rose 0.47%, and financial industry ETFs rose 0.29%, second to last in performance. Healthcare industry ETFs rose 0.21%. This week, semiconductor ETFs rebounded by 10.19%, technology industry ETFs rebounded by 8.10%, after falling by 1.62% and 7.45% in the previous two weeks, internet stocks index ETFs rebounded by 4.55%, a decline of 4.83% last week, regional bank ETFs rose 1.79%, banking ETFs rose 1.72%, energy industry ETFs fell 0.49%, continuing the performance of a 5.77% decline last week.

All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index rose. The utilities sector rose 1.41%, the telecom sector rose 1.02%, the consumer discretionary sector rose 0.51%, the information technology/tech sector rose 0.42%, the energy sector rose 0.42%, and the healthcare sector rose 0.19%, performing the worst.
The 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants had mixed performances. Alphabet Class A shares rose 1.79%. European antitrust officials may order Google to stop its anti-competitive advertising practices, but no breakup order is expected at the moment. Microsoft rose 0.84%, and Tesla rose 0.21%. Nvidia narrowed its initial drop of over 1% and ended with a 0.03% decline. It gained 15.81% this week, ending two weeks of consecutive declines and delivering its best weekly performance since the week of August 16. Apple opened low but rebounded to a 0.6% gain, ultimately closing with a 0.12% decline. Apple's website crashed during the pre-sale of the iPhone 16 series. Meta fell 0.19%, and Amazon fell 0.27%.

The 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants have risen for five consecutive days, reaching the largest weekly gain since March 2023.

芯片股多数走高。费城半导体指数收涨1.68%，本周累涨9.99%。行业ETF SOXX收涨1.79%；英伟达两倍做多ETF收跌0.33%。安森美半导体收涨3.45%，英特尔收涨1.55%，科磊收涨2.48%，高通收涨1.67%，美光科技收涨4.6%，Arm控股收涨5.88%，迈威尔科技收涨0.24%，阿斯麦收涨2.02%，博通收涨1.9%，台积电美股收涨0.62%，AMD收涨1.02%。
AI概念股涨多跌少。甲骨文高开近8%后收涨0.4%，仍创新高，全周涨14%。Serve Robotics收涨18.12%，C3.ai收涨0.57%，BigBear.ai收涨1.94%，超微电脑收涨3.4%，戴尔科技收涨1.92%，CrowdStrike收涨0.79%，Palantir收涨1.95%，Snowflake收涨0.6%，而英伟达持股的AI语音公司SoundHound AI收跌0.41%，BullFrog AI收跌3.28%。
中概股涨跌不一。纳斯达克金龙中国指数收涨0.06%，报5618.88点，本周累计上涨1.03%。ETF中，中国科技指数ETF（CQQQ）收跌0.67%，本周累跌0.55%。中概互联网指数ETF（KWEB）收跌0.43%，本周累涨0.55%。
热门中概股中，哔哩哔哩收跌3.76%，拼多多低开6.3%后收跌2.4%，极氪收跌2.26%，京东收跌1.54%，阿里巴巴收跌0.94%，百度收跌0.5%，唯品会收跌0.08%，而网易收涨0.18%，美团ADR收涨0.22%，携程网收涨0.4%，腾讯控股ADR收涨0.57%，理想汽车收涨1.27%。蒙牛乳业ADR收涨1.57%，小鹏汽车收涨4.06%，蔚来收涨5.11%。
现货金续创历史新高，带动金银矿业股上涨。金银矿业股中，BVN涨8.15%，AG涨5.87%，科尔黛伦矿业收涨6.28%，赫克拉矿业收涨5.9%，哈莫尼黄金收涨2.94%。铜矿股中，MUX收涨1.18%、HBM收涨1.94%、泰克资源ADR收涨1.14%、淡水河谷ADR收涨1.35%。
其他重点个股中：
（1）波音收跌3.69%，波音公司最大工会宣布罢工，影响737 Max等大多数飞机的生产，穆迪将波音置于下调观察名单，或下调评级至垃圾级。
（2）莫德纳收跌2.01%，延续周四跌12.36%的遭遇，报68.28美元，本周累计下跌6.32%，在砍掉部分研发开支、挤压未来数年新推产品数量之际，连续第四周下跌。
(3) Donald Trump concept stock DJT rose 11.79% to $17.97, up 5.09% for the week. Trump said he will not sell the company's stock.
(4) After a more than 10% increase, United States Steel closed up nearly 4%. The US may delay making a decision on the acquisition of the company by a Japanese steelmaker.
(5) Uber rose 8% pre-market and closed up 6.5%, expanding its cooperation with Alphabet's self-driving car division, Waymo.

European stock markets closed higher on Friday, with German listed companies Zalando and Siemens Energy leading the way with gains of over 9%.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.76% at 515.95 points, up 1.85% for the week. Retail stocks rose 1.84%, leading the gains, while automotive stocks rose 1.6%. Only the food and beverage sector fell, down 0.32%. Among the components, French financial services company Worldline announced the departure of its CEO and lowered its full-year performance expectations, causing its stock price to plummet by more than 19%. Zalando closed up 10.30% and Siemens Energy closed up 9.44%.
The German stock index closed up 0.98%, up 2.17% for the week. The French stock index closed up 0.41%, up 1.54% for the week. The Italian stock index closed up 0.34%, up 0.83% for the week. The Spanish stock index closed up 1.23%, up nearly 3.29% for the week. The UK stock index closed up 0.39%, up 1.12% for the week. The Netherlands AEX index closed up 0.71%, up 2.31% for the week.

Expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed next week have significantly increased. The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds fell more than 5 basis points. Lagarde's rate statement restrained the decline in German bond yields. 2-year UK bond yields fell by about 12 basis points this week.

U.S. Bonds: In late trading, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell by 5.68 basis points to 3.5595%, ending the day in a downward trend and falling 6.38 basis points for the week. The yield on 10-year U.S. benchmark government bonds fell by 2.08 basis points to 3.6532%, down 5.29 basis points for the week.
On the news front, JPMorgan economists reiterated their expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, and October federal funds rate futures saw a wave of buying. However, Westpac Bank stated that the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points next week, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes is expected to have bottomed out around 3.6%. Goldman Sachs still expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points next week and to cut rates at every remaining meeting this year (November and December).
Eurozone bonds: the yield on the 10-year German bond, the benchmark for the eurozone, fell by 0.3 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 2.4 basis points this week. The yield on the 2-year German bond dropped by 1.4 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 1.9 basis points this week. The yield on the 10-year French bond fell by 1.1 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 4.3 basis points this week. The yield on the 10-year Italian bond fell by 3.2 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 11.4 basis points this week. The yield on the 10-year UK bond fell by 1.3 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 11.8 basis points this week, and the yield on the 2-year UK bond fell by 1.7 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 15.4 basis points this week.

This week, US Treasury yields have all trended lower, with short-term bond yields leading the decline.

Expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut heat up, the US dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.25%, briefly falling below 101 to a one-week low. It has fallen by about 0.06% this week. The yen has risen by about 1.1% this week, approaching the 140 level to hit an 8.5-month high. The offshore renminbi has risen by more than 186 points, approaching 7.10 yuan. Bitcoin has risen above $0.06 million.

The US dollar: the weighted average of the US dollar index (DXY) against six major currencies fell by 0.25% to 101.114 points. At 21:12 Beijing time, it hit a daily low of 100.883 points, showing a V-shaped trend for the day and falling overall. It has fallen by 0.06% this week, reaching as high as 101.839 points on September 12.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.31% to 1226.11 points. At 22:44, it hit a daily low of 1224.66 points, showing a overall downward trend for the day. It has fallen by 0.47% this week, trading in the range of 1238.02-1224.66 points during the period.

Yesterday there was — Yesterday, after a comment from Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist from "Fed Communications", the US dollar plummeted significantly, marking the sixth decline in the past seven weeks.

Non-dollar currencies: The euro against the dollar remained roughly flat, with a cumulative drop of 0.10% this week. The pound against the dollar remained roughly flat, with a decrease of about 0.04% this week. The dollar against the Swiss franc fell by 0.25%, with a cumulative increase of 0.69% this week; Among the commodity currencies, the australian dollar against the dollar fell by 0.27%, with a cumulative increase of 0.53% this week; the new zealand dollar against the dollar fell by 0.42%, with a cumulative decrease of 0.26% this week; the dollar against the canadian dollar rose by 0.04%, with a cumulative increase of 0.10% this week.
Yen crosses 141: The yen against the dollar rose by 0.70% closing at 140.82 yen, with an early peak of 140.29 yen during the U.S. morning session, marking a 1.07% cumulative increase this week. The yen against the euro rose by 0.70%, reaching 155.98 yen, with a 1.14% cumulative increase this week; the yen against the pound rose by 0.71%, reaching 184.837 yen, with a 1.06% cumulative increase this week.
On the news front, HSBC raised its forecast for the yen-dollar exchange rate, believing that the yen's safe-haven properties are returning, and the Fed is shifting to a rate-cutting cycle. HSBC adjusted its fourth-quarter forecast for the dollar/yen from the previous 148 yen to 142 yen, and its second-quarter forecast for 2025 from 144 to 138 yen.
Offshore RMB: Offshore RMB (CNH) rose 186 points against the dollar, closing at 7.1004 yuan. The overall trading range this week was between 7.1367 and 7.0845 yuan, showing a trend of high and then falling back.
Cryptocurrencies collectively rose. The largest market-cap leader, Bitcoin, rose 2.61% at the close, at $60,110, with a cumulative increase of approximately 13.39% this week. The second-largest, Ethereum, rose 2.99% at the close, at $2,430.50, with a cumulative increase of 10.83% this week.

Bitcoin soared to its largest weekly increase in two months, rising to the $0.06 million mark.

After the Gulf of Mexico storm, the oil market lost momentum to continue to rebound. US oil fell 0.46% on Friday, Brent crude fell 0.5%, but rose for the entire week, breaking the trend of continuous decline for several weeks.

US oil: WTI October crude oil futures fell $0.32, a decrease of 0.46%, to $68.65 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of nearly 1.45% this week. US oil rose nearly 2% to $70.32 in early US stock trading and fell to a daily low of $68.47 after midday, with a intraday decrease of over 0.7%.
Brent crude: Brent November crude oil futures fell $0.36, a decrease of 0.50%, to $71.61 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of 0.77% this week. Brent crude rose nearly 1.8% to break through $73.20 in early US stock trading, and then continued to fall, with a midday low of over 0.7% below $71.50.
On the news front, US CFTC data shows that the bullish sentiment for Brent and WTI crude oil hit a new historical low. UBS said that the global oil market may face a "severe oversupply" by 2025, with non-OPEC supply increasing and demand slowing down, limiting the need for OPEC+ to relax production restrictions. Brent crude oil is expected to be $79 per barrel this quarter, $73 in the fourth quarter, $70 in the first quarter of 2025, $64 in the second quarter, $69 in the third quarter, and $72 in the fourth quarter.
Natural gas: US October natural gas futures fell over 2.20%, to $2.3050 per million British thermal units, with a cumulative increase of about 1.32% this week.

Oil prices closed higher this week (although there was a slight pullback today), but US oil is still below $70.

Expectations for a 50 basis point interest rate cut increased significantly, with spot gold breaking through $2586 to hit a new historical high, with a cumulative increase of over 3.2% this week, the largest weekly gain in five months. Gold futures also broke through $2600 to reach a new high, and palladium rose 15% for the entire week. Copper in London hit a two-week high.

Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose 1.08% to $2608.40 per ounce in the closing session, and the midday session of the US stocks hit an intraday record high of $2614.60, with a weekly cumulative increase of 3.31%. Spot gold hit a historical high in the midday session, rising more than 1% to $2586.10, with a weekly cumulative increase of 3.21%.
Silver: COMEX December silver futures rose 3.22% to $31.075 per ounce in the closing session, with a weekly cumulative increase of 10.26%. Spot silver hit a high of more than 3.5% in the midday session, rising above $30.92, with a weekly cumulative increase of 9.97%.
London industrial base metals collectively rose. Dr. Copper, an economic indicator, rose over 0.998% to $9308 per ton, with a weekly cumulative increase of about 3.47%. Zinc rose by 1.68%, with a weekly cumulative increase of over 6.84%. Aluminum rose by about 2.12%, with a weekly cumulative increase of about 5.51%. Tin rose by 1.27%, with a weekly cumulative increase of about 2.52%. Lead closed up $16, with a weekly cumulative increase of over 4.12%. While nickel fell by about 1.19%.
COMEX copper futures rose 0.61% to $4.2210 per pound, with a weekly cumulative increase of 3.52%.

The softening of the US dollar boosted gold prices, which soared to a historic high, marking the best weekly performance in five months.

Editor/Somer

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Focus on CHK and US stocks

美股收盘 | 标普纳指五连涨创今年最佳单周，英伟达周涨近16%，博通周涨22%

U.S. stocks closed | S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose for the fifth consecutive week, with nvidia up nearly 16% for the week and broadcom up 22% for the week.

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