前一天，欧洲央行将存款机制利率下调25个基点至3.5%，这是该行今年6月宣布降息后再次下调利率。但欧银并未明确表示未来的政策方向，行长拉加德也没有在新闻发布会上承诺任何货币政策路径。① Villeroy said, "We have a clear symmetrical mandate around the 2% inflation target. We must pay attention to the risks of falling below the target as well as exceeding it."; ② Kazakhs stated that the European Central Bank will only lower interest rates at next month's meeting if the eurozone economy enters a recession.
On Friday (September 13th local time), François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, stated that the European Central Bank must be cautious to avoid inflation falling below or exceeding the target while gradually lowering interest rates.
Villeroy, the governor of the Bank of France, said, "Unlike the United States, we do not have a dual mandate for price stability and employment. But we do have a clear symmetrical mandate around the 2% inflation target. We must pay attention to the risks of falling below the target as well as exceeding it."
The day before, the European Central Bank lowered the deposit facility interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, which was the second rate cut announced by the bank since June this year. However, the ECB did not explicitly state the future policy direction and President Lagarde did not promise any specific monetary policy path at the press conference.
Currently, the money market anticipates a 20% likelihood of another interest rate cut at the October ECB meeting, lower than the approximately 40% earlier this week. Insiders said that although the potential action of an interest rate cut in October has not been completely ruled out, the possibility is small.
Villeroy stated, "We should continue to gradually and appropriately reduce the degree of monetary policy constraints, and the pace must be highly practical: we will not commit to any specific rate path in advance, and will also retain sufficient flexibility in future meetings."
Villeroy admitted that the latest economic activity data in the eurozone "is somewhat disappointing", with growth driven mainly by public spending and exports. Regarding inflation, he said that the ECB has not changed its outlook for overall data, but market expectations have significantly decreased.
In yesterday's resolution, the European Central Bank announced its forecasts for inflation and the economy. In terms of inflation, it is projected to be 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026; the three forecast numbers for the core inflation rate are 2.9%, 2.3%, and 2.0% respectively.
The latest view of the ECB is that the euro area's economic growth rates for these three years are 0.8%, 1.3%, and 1.5%, all of which have been revised down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous forecast values.
During the day, Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and the President of the Latvian central bank, stated that the ECB would only lower interest rates at next month's meeting if the euro area's economy experienced a recession.
"If we look at the financial markets, the likelihood of a rate cut in October is not high," Kazaks said. "However, if the economy is hit by unexpected shocks and its performance is significantly weaker than current expectations, and inflation also significantly decreases, then of course we may consider a rate cut."
Kazaks pointed out that service sector prices remain high, and inflation has not been fully restrained. However, with economic growth slower than expected, "the decision to gradually reduce interest rates is completely reasonable. We have already taken two actions this year, and of course the year is not over yet."
Editor/ping
