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V.F (NYSE:VFC Shareholders Incur Further Losses as Stock Declines 3.4% This Week, Taking Five-year Losses to 76%

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 13 20:14

V.F. Corporation (NYSE:VFC) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 26% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been stomach churning. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 80% in that time. So we don't gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The important question is if the business itself justifies a higher share price in the long term. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

Since V.F has shed US$234m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over five years V.F's earnings per share dropped significantly, falling to a loss, with the share price also lower. The recent extraordinary items contributed to this situation. At present it's hard to make valid comparisons between EPS and the share price. But we would generally expect a lower price, given the situation.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

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NYSE:VFC Earnings Per Share Growth September 13th 2024

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on V.F's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, V.F's TSR for the last 5 years was -76%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

V.F shareholders are down 2.7% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 24%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 12% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for V.F (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

V.F is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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