FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia Pacific) - On Friday (September 13), the US dollar fell to its lowest level of the year against the Japanese yen, while gold hit a historic high, as investors increased their bets on a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.
Asian stocks also rose, with the MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index up 0.48%. The Hang Seng Index led the regional markets with a 0.94% increase. Despite expectations of more weak economic data on Saturday, mainland Chinese blue chips rose by 0.09%. The Australian benchmark stock index rose by 0.25%, while South Korea's Kospi index fell slightly by 0.1%. #DecisionAnalysis#
Due to the strength of the Japanese yen, the Japanese stock market performed poorly, with the Nikkei index falling by 0.35%.
Japan, mainland China, and South Korea will all have a long weekend. Tokyo will open on Tuesday, China on Wednesday, and South Korea will have to wait until Thursday.
US stock index futures rose by 0.1%, continuing the uptrend from Thursday. Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose by 0.42%.
According to LSEG data, traders have increased the probability expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 18 from the previous 28% to 45%. Both the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal previously reported that the Fed's rate cut decision is "a critical choice".
Influential former New York Fed Chair Bill Dudley stated at a forum in Singapore, "The reasons for a 50 basis point rate cut are sufficient".
"This is another new development in the Federal Reserve rate cut debate," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore. He pointed out that this tug-of-war is particularly evident in bond futures and the USD/JPY exchange rate. "Everyone thought the 25 basis point rate cut was a done deal, but suddenly the 50 basis points are back on the table."
The US dollar fell as much as 0.81% against the Japanese yen to 140.645 yen, the lowest level since December 28. The yen was also supported this week by tough comments from Bank of Japan officials. Takashi Tamura, a member of the Policy Board, said on Thursday that he is "concerned that inflationary risks are intensifying".
The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against the yen and five other major currencies, fell to a one-week low of 101.00.
The euro rose 0.07% against the US dollar to 1.1083, extending its 0.57% gain from Thursday. Earlier, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde rejected expectations of an interest rate cut in October, following the widely expected 25 basis point increase on Thursday.
Carol Kong, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said that the current pricing for a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is too high. In a report, she wrote: "We still lean towards a 25 basis point cut rather than 50 basis points, as the labor market and overall economy remain resilient."The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)pricing for a rate cut is too high."In comparison to the average FOMC rate cut cycle outside of the US economic recession conditions, the current market pricing appears to be excessive. We are in consensus with US economists that the US economy will not enter a recession."
Kong said, "Compared to the average FOMC rate cut cycle outside of a US economic recession, the current market pricing appears to be excessive. We are in consensus with US economists that the US economy will not enter a recession."
In the commodities market, gold continued its 1.9% gain from Thursday, hitting a record high of $2,570.03, as the US dollar weakened.
Following the impact of Hurricane Franklin in the Gulf of Mexico, crude oil prices continued to climb as producers assessed the impact on production levels.
U.S. WTI crude oil futures rose 0.71% to $69.46 per barrel, extending the 2.5% gain from Thursday. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.65% to $72.44, after a 1.9% increase in the previous trading day.