In the long term, the cost parity of solar energy storage is determined by factors such as electricity prices, electricity usage intensity, policies, etc., leading to an upward fluctuation in demand for solar energy storage in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, GF Securities released a research report stating that in the long term, electricity shortages are widespread in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. However, due to export restrictions on major thermal power equipment enterprises, solar energy storage at half parity is expected to become the optimal solution to alleviate the shortage of electricity, indicating a clear long-term trend in the demand for solar energy storage in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In the short term, various factors such as external catalysts leading to fluctuations in electricity prices, electricity shortages, policy changes, etc., impact short-term demand. Weather conditions, marine transportation, and other factors also affect installation efficiency, with expectations of an upward fluctuation in the demand for solar energy storage in the emerging markets of Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Tailoring economic release of solar energy storage space in the emerging markets of Asia, Africa, and Latin America according to the power supply side and the user side. Solar energy storage cost parity: that is, under the premise of achieving almost the controllability of thermal power generation with photovoltaics + energy storage, the overall electricity cost of photovoltaic with storage is lower than the benchmark coal-fired electricity price. Compared to the more stringent full parity, half parity is more practical in solving the controllability and integration issues of new energy.
On the power supply side: achieving preliminary controllability of photovoltaic output at half parity, driving the volume of centralized solar energy storage. In the scenario of solar energy storage at half parity, as calculated by GF Securities, by configuring energy storage equivalent to 50% of the daily output of photovoltaics (i.e., 1 kW of photovoltaics configured with 45% power and 4 hours of energy storage), the midday integration issue is preliminarily resolved, making it a key to increasing the volume of centralized solar energy storage in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
On the user side: in some countries, external catalysts significantly shorten the static payback period, leading to a rapid release of household solar energy storage demand. Compared to the power supply side focusing on long-term returns, the user side is more concerned with short-term benefits, that is, the static payback period. According to GF Securities' calculations, if residential electricity prices in Asian, African, and Latin American countries are higher than 1.0/1.5 yuan/kWh, with static payback periods less than 7/5 years respectively, it becomes very appealing.
The stability of the power grid determines the priority direction of solar energy storage construction, with different countries having diverse needs. Considering the strong grid support required for large-scale energy storage development, countries with strong grid stability have the potential for large-scale and household energy storage development, while countries with weaker grid stability should prioritize distributed solar energy storage development. Based on the strength of the grid, electricity prices, and electricity shortages, countries with strong grids like developed countries in Europe, America, Japan, and Australia have high electricity prices and tight electricity supply, offering opportunities for the synchronous development of large-scale and household energy storage. Balcony solar energy storage, as a new market, is expected to grow rapidly under relaxed policies, with the Chilean series of electricity reforms driving centralized solar energy storage demand; Saudi Arabia, Oman, and other countries with low electricity prices and relatively loose electricity supply prioritize centralized solar energy storage driven by policy stimuli.
GF Securities believes that among countries with weaker grids, Pakistan, Brazil, South Africa, Ukraine, and other countries are showing high growth momentum influenced by electricity prices or electricity shortages. Mexico, the Philippines, Egypt, Vietnam, Thailand, and other countries have the potential for large-scale development of household solar energy storage, with a focus on policy direction in the future.
Investment advice:
The photovoltaic sector will focus on the leading N-type technology innovation battery leaders, including JinkoSolar (688223.SH), Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology (002865.SZ), Shanghai Sinexcel Electric (301030.SZ), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Longi Green Energy Technology (601012.SH), JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ); And the beneficiaries of new technology iteration such as Polyplastics and Materials (688503.SH), Wuxi DK Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. (300842.SZ), Flat Glass Group (601865.SH), Hangzhou First Applied Material (603806.SH), etc.
The energy storage sector will focus on leading technologies in the field of large-scale energy storage, with both domestic and international advantages and scale advantages, including Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), Sineng Electric (300827.SZ), Attese (688472.SH), Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric (300693.SZ), etc.; In the field of household energy storage, we will pay attention to companies that focus on specific markets and new products, such as Wuxi DK Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. (605117.SH), Hua Bao New Energy (301327.SZ), Elion Energy (688717.SH), Jiangsu GoodWe Power Supply Technology Co., Ltd. (688390.SH), Ginlong Technologies (300763.SZ), Jiangsu Tongrun Equipment Technology (002150.SZ), Hefei Great Power Supply (688032.SH), UPowerTech (688348.SH), etc.
Risk warning: Underperforming demand; price risks in the industry chain; deterioration of competitive landscape risks, etc.