然而，美元却失去了一些光彩——在美联储采取比其他主要央行更为谨慎的态度来降息之后的几个月里，美元一直在下跌，原因是通胀有所缓解。The Chief Investment Officer of Pacific Investment Management Company's non-traditional strategy stated that since the 1990s, the US dollar has often temporarily declined in response to the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
As the market awaits the expected policy shift within the Federal Reserve next week - which would be the first rate cut in four years - investors are becoming quite nervous.
Traders have been buying a large amount of US bonds, driving the yield on the 10-year US Treasury to its lowest level in over a year earlier this week, while the price of gold has already surged to record highs in the near term.
However, the US dollar has lost some of its luster - in the months following the Federal Reserve's more cautious approach to rate cuts compared to other major central banks, the US dollar has been declining, due to a moderation in inflation.
Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco) Non-Traditional Strategies Chief Investment Officer Marc Seidner and the company's portfolio manager Pramol Dhawan stated that, since the 1990s, following the previous first rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the US dollar tends to at least temporarily decline.
"During previous rate cut cycles, whether hard or soft landings, the US dollar on average tends to initially decline, and then rebound in the months following the first rate cut," they wrote in their client report on Thursday.
The chart above shows the average performance of the US dollar index 60 weeks before and after the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve since the 1990s, as well as the following 120 days.
"We believe that, as policy normalizes, the usd may lose its status as a high-yield currency and could moderately depreciate," the Pimco team wrote.
Former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, now Pimco executive Clarida, said that a 50 basis point rate cut "does not necessarily guarantee good reviews or boost confidence 100 percent, which could lead to the market thinking 'Wow! Does the Fed know something we don't know?'"
After the European Central Bank lowered the deposit rate by 25 basis points for the second time since June, bringing its benchmark rate down to 3.5%, European stocks rose at Thursday's close.
The usd faces the risk of losing the gains made since the beginning of 2024. The chart below shows a sharp downward trend in the usd against a basket of competing currencies since reaching a peak of above 106 in April.
According to FactSet data, the usd index fell by 0.2% on Thursday, but is still expected to achieve a 0.3% increase for the week. The index has accumulated a 0.2% increase since the beginning of the year.
Editor/Lambor
