剑桥大学皇后学院校长El-Erian认为，最近美国国债的价格走势部分是由于“场外资金迅速发挥作用”。Due to the large amount of cash held off-exchange, people are worried that if they don't deposit the money into a fixed-rate account now, they will lose out on interest income in the future. Every time the interest rate rises, people flock to it.
Investors are actively investing their cash into the global bond market, especially US Treasury bonds.
The results of this week's US Treasury bond auction show strong demand from investors. Assets in US money market funds continue to surge, reaching a new record high in the week ending Wednesday.
El-Erian, the President of Queen's College, Cambridge, believes that the recent price movement of US Treasury bonds is partly due to the rapid deployment of off-exchange funds.
Due to holding a large amount of cash off-exchange, people are concerned that if they don't deposit the money into fixed-rate accounts now, they will lose interest income in the future. Every time interest rates rise, there will be a rush of people.
With an interest rate cut imminent, investors are still willing to hold cash assets.
On Thursday, US Treasury bonds fell across the board due to the release of the inflation report the day before, causing turbulence in the bond market. This quickly attracted investors to buy on dips, resulting in a quick rebound in the bond market.
Despite the widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting, investors are still willing to hold cash or buy cash-like assets. Bank of America strategists Mark Cabana and Katie Craig said, "Investors may not quickly shift to high-risk assets due to interest rate cuts."
El-Erian said that in the $39 billion US Treasury auction on Wednesday, a large number of investors bought 10-year US Treasury bonds indirectly.
According to the latest data from the Investment Company Institute, as of the week of September 11th, the total assets held by US money market funds reached a record $6.32 trillion. In the past six weeks, this number has increased by approximately $188 billion.
Outside of the United States, there is still high demand for long-term government bonds. On Tuesday, the transaction for the sale of 30-year new bonds in Italy reached a record 8 billion euros. At the beginning of this month, the sales volume of 2040 UK government bonds reached 8 billion pounds, which is the first sale since the new Labour government took office, setting a record for the highest demand.
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