Yesterday, A shares surged and then fell back. As of the close on September 12th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.17% to 2717.12 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.63%, and the chinext price index fell by 0.42%. The market turnover was 517.43 billion yuan, a slight increase compared to the previous period.

In terms of Hong Kong and US stocks, on Thursday of this week, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.77%, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.71%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.58%.

All three major US stock indexes closed higher, with the Dow rising by 0.58%, the S&P 500 Index rising by 0.75%, and the Nasdaq rising by 1%. Both the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq recorded their fourth consecutive day of gains.

From the perspective of ETF fund flows, on September 12th, the top 10 ETFs with the highest net inflows were the Rich Nations Golden Eagle Fund Policy and Financial Bonds ETF, the Southern Fund CSI 1000 ETF, the Huatai-PB Fund CSI 300 ETF, the e-Fund CSI 500 ETF, the Penghua Fund Alcohol ETF, the Huaxia Fund SSE 50 ETF, the Bosera Fund Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond ETF, the Huaxia Fund CSI 1000 ETF, the e-Fund CSI Health Care ETF, and the Guolianan Fund Semiconductor Chip ETF, with net inflows of 0.6 billion yuan, 0.403 billion yuan, 0.305 billion yuan, 0.209 billion yuan, 0.16 billion yuan, 0.16 billion yuan, 0.155 billion yuan, 0.154 billion yuan, 0.139 billion yuan, and 0.132 billion yuan, respectively.

On September 12th, the top 10 ETFs with the highest net outflows were the YinHua Exchange Traded Money Market Fund-A, the HFT CSI Short-Term Financing ETF, the Huatai-PB CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF, the Honglietf, the Gold ETF, the Hwabao WP CSI Banks ETF, the Hwabao WP Listed Money Market Fund-A, the Zongzhietf, the Guotai SCI ETF, and the Currency ETF, with net outflows of -0.701 billion yuan, -0.186 billion yuan, -0.137 billion yuan, -0.117 billion yuan, -0.073 billion yuan, -0.067 billion yuan, -0.063 billion yuan, -0.056 billion yuan, -0.054 billion yuan, and -0.047 billion yuan, respectively.

This year, 663 companies have announced the implementation of mid-term dividends, with the total dividends expected to be 533.7 billion yuan, accounting for an increase in the proportion of net income from 7.0% to 18.5% (as of the end of August).

Professional buy-side institutions, represented by public and private funds, all believe that the valuation level of the A-share market is at a historical low, and the long-term investment value is highlighted. The A-share market has been undergoing continuous volatile adjustments, and many top-tier private equity firms have shifted their long-term views on A-shares towards a "positive direction". Several well-known private equity firms have stated that A-shares are expected to gradually enter a crucial "window of opportunity".

Regarding the current market, Everbright Securities pointed out that as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, the pre-holiday effect is evident, and some funds have left the market in advance to celebrate the festival, causing the market to rise and then fall back. From a structural perspective, Mid-Autumn Festival baijiu sales have been weak, with the industry expecting a year-on-year decline of 20%-30%, resulting in a general decline in baijiu stocks and also affecting market confidence, becoming one of the important factors dragging down the index.

Looking ahead, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the Federal Reserve will officially launch interest rate cuts (early morning of September 19, Beijing time), and domestic monetary policy is also expected to take action (interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts are expected), which may push A-shares to rebound from the bottom.

Dongxing Securities' research report pointed out that the possibility of entering the bottom area in the fourth quarter has increased. Logically speaking, if the annual GDP target is achieved, there is still a strong expectation for policy stimulus in the fourth quarter. With the backdrop of the interest rate cuts in the US, there is more room for monetary policy adjustments and an increased probability of interest rate cuts. With the media's attention on deflation, the future fiscal policy stimulus space can still be expected. The marginal improvement in policies may increase the possibility of the market index transitioning from a unidirectional decline to a volatile state. From the perspective of the allocation of funds in the entire society, the restoration of confidence will naturally bring incremental capital to the market, and a large amount of capital is stored in the bond market. In the future, a considerable probability exists for some of the funds to gradually overflow into the stock market, forming a mid-term bottom for the stock market. Defensive allocation remains the main focus. With the fundamental trends still in a downward trend and policy expectations yet to be realized, the market's weak performance is difficult to change, so defensive allocation remains the main focus. Previously, high dividend sectors underwent continuous adjustments, and banks experienced noticeable corrections due to news impact, resulting in the dissolution of some fund aggregations. It seems that there is no consensus on the new aggregation direction, and adjustments have occurred in various industry sectors, leading to a period of uncertainty in sector allocation.