Dickie Tam, director of the research department of Emperor Capital, said that after the sharp fall last week, the US stocks rebounded strongly this week, with technology stocks performing best. Nvidia(NVDA.US) has become the biggest contributor to this round of rebound. Obviously, everyone was worried about the economic recession last week, but in less than a week, the US stocks have once again shown their strength. Some may interpret this round of rebound as anticipation of a Fed rate cut, however, I would like to point out that the Dow and S&P 500 index, even after the previous decline, are only 1.2% and 1.3% away from their historical highs; the Nasdaq has a larger adjustment, but the gap is still less than 6%, mainly due to the impact of the high volatility of technology stocks. The strength of the US stocks has not actually changed much. Of course, the market focus will inevitably be on the Fed's interest rate meeting next week and the latest assessment of the US economy by the Fed. However, with the latest announced CPI data in August still at 2.5%, I believe it will only be a 1/4 basis point rate cut.

The Hong Kong stock market also rebounded yesterday, but apart from Alibaba-W (09988.HK) continuing to receive support from northbound investment, and performing well, the overall market still lacks bullish news, and the weakness of A-shares continues to drag down the Hong Kong stock market. I believe the Hang Seng Index will only struggle near the 250-day moving average in the short term.

In addition, it has been a while since I followed up with everyone on the oil stock market. I have always been a big fan of oil prices and have held shares of CNOOC (00883.HK) and Cosco Ship Engy (01138.HK) for a while, but I have also reduced my relevant holdings this week. In fact, the lack of increase in oil prices due to the worsening situation in the Middle East has made me a little concerned, and the repeated breaches of important supports by related stocks in the face of talk of a recession in the market have also led to the need for good risk management, selling part of the high-sensitive sectors.

Certainly, the continuous decline in oil prices and the recent negative news in the oil shipping sector have attracted a lot of attention from investors. The situation of the two major global economies may affect the demand for oil, and the sluggish demand has been more or less magnified, for example, the structural factors of electric vehicles and environmental protection in the Mainland, the upgrading of smart technology to improve production efficiency and reduce costs, may pressurize oil prices. In addition, OPEC+ has lowered its oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, further depressing oil prices. It is undoubtedly worth paying attention to whether OPEC+ will extend the production cut measures. At the time of writing, there are reports that OPEC+ will delay the plan to increase production in October by two months, but the key is still whether demand can recover (of course, there are also comments from US presidential candidate Trump about halving oil prices to stop the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but I believe no one will take it seriously). It seems that it will not be a short-term matter to regain momentum, considering the global economic situation. As for the oil shipping prices, under the drag of weak demand, they continue to decline, and the unfavorable market conditions are directly reflected in the performance of related stock prices. As Cosco Ship Engy has already fallen below the 250-day moving average, and CNOOC has also fallen below the previous low of 18.7 yuan, I have already taken profits according to the earlier strategy and will wait for the oil prices to regain momentum before redeploying.

(The author is a licensed person of the SFC and holds Nvidia shares)~