The Zhitong Finance App learned that Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Federal Reserve will probably start cutting interest rates at the September interest rate meeting. However, the recent decline in the US job market that exceeded expectations strengthened expectations for a “hard landing” for the US economy. In review history, during the US recession since 1948, gold had a clear advantage over other assets, and its price win rate and yield were far higher than US stocks and other commodity assets. If the US economy and employment data decline further, it will increase the market's recession expectations and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, which is beneficial to gold. It is recommended to focus on the relative opportunities of leading A-share gold stocks such as Shandong Gold (600547.SH), China Gold (600489.SH), Yintai Gold (000975.SZ), and Chifeng Gold (600988.SH).

Galaxy Securities believes that macro-expectations dominate metal price fluctuations, and demand for non-ferrous metals will improve marginally in the peak season. At the beginning of August, due to the decline in US employment and economic data for July exceeding expectations, the market's expectations for the US recession increased. Combined with the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the closing of Japanese yen arbitrage transactions, increased market fluctuations. Prices of non-ferrous metals commodities fluctuated sharply under “recession trading.” However, subsequent US retail sales data for July and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of August exceeded expectations, causing market concerns about the US recession to subside, and prices of non-ferrous metals commodities rebounded as market sentiment stabilized. Meanwhile, at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly sent a signal that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, which also supported the rebound in non-ferrous metal prices. Furthermore, although there was no significant improvement in the domestic economic recovery momentum, the domestic manufacturing PMI fell further to 49.1% in August, falling below the booming line for four consecutive months. However, as the downstream “Gold Nine Silver Ten” construction starts and the peak consumption season is approaching, demand for non-ferrous metals improved marginally in August, and domestic stocks of the main types of non-ferrous metals, copper and aluminum, showed signs of being erased. With a steady rebound in prices and an improvement in downstream consumption, the nonferrous metals industry is expected to rebound further in September.

2024Q2A shares reversed the performance growth rate of the non-ferrous metals industry. The two key macroeconomic logics that plagued the non-ferrous metals industry in the first half of 2024 underwent marginal positive changes in the first half of 2024. China's GDP growth rate in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in March, and domestic economic momentum showed signs of accelerating recovery at the end of the first quarter; overseas Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified in March that 2024 would be the right time for the Fed's monetary policy transition. The bitmap of the Federal Reserve's March interest rate meeting predicts that 2024 will cut interest rates three times, and the Fed will soon begin a new cycle of interest rate cuts. The possibility of an improvement in the domestic economy and the transaction expected by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates first drove the price of gold, copper and aluminum, which is most sensitive to economic recovery and liquidity improvements, to jump in March and April, and also led to a rise in the prices of other non-ferrous metals commodities and small metals with limited supply, which greatly increased the overall prosperity and profitability of the nonferrous metals industry, and contributed to a reversal in industry performance in 2024 after experiencing a downward cycle of nearly two years. Specifically, the A-share nonferrous metals industry's revenue for the first half of 2024 increased 1.38% year on year, and the performance decreased by 1.62% year on year; the revenue of the non-ferrous metals industry in the 2024Q2 single quarter increased 6.58% year on year, and the performance increased 27.95% year on year.

Risk warning: 1) the risk of a sharp drop in non-ferrous metal prices; 2) the risk that domestic economic recovery falls short of expectations; 3) the risk that the Fed's interest rate cut falls short of expectations; 4) the risk of global geopolitical confrontation exceeding expectations. 5) The risk that downstream demand for non-ferrous metals falls short of expectations.