The Zhitong Finance App learned that in August, the first commercial vehicle network published an article stating that in August, of the seven commercial vehicle market segments, only the medium truck and Chinese passenger market, which account for a very small share, achieved year-on-year sales growth, while the market segments that account for a relatively large share, such as light trucks, heavy trucks, and light buses, all experienced year-on-year declines. According to China Automobile Association data (corporate invoice volume, non-terminal actual sales volume, same below), in August 2024, China's commercial vehicle market sold 0.2719 million vehicles, a slight increase of 1% over July this year, while the year-on-year decline continued. The year-on-year decline was 12%. The year-on-year decline increased by 5 percentage points from the previous month (-7%), and experienced “3 consecutive declines.” Moreover, the decline was still larger than last month, and the overall performance is already clearly chilly.

Looking at the commercial vehicle sales volume and growth rate trend chart for the past five years and August, it can be seen that the commercial vehicle market in the past five years and August showed three levels: the commercial vehicle market sales in August 2020 showed three levels: the level of over 0.4 million vehicles in August 2020 is a high level; the level of over 0.3 million vehicles in August 2023 is a medium level; the remaining level of less than 0.3 million vehicles in 2021, 2022, and August 2024 is a low level. In terms of numbers alone, the commercial vehicle market level of 0.2719 million vehicles in August this year ranked 3rd in the past five years, about 0.038 million units lower than August last year, about 0.16 million vehicles lower than the 5-year high in August 2020, and only about 0.02 million vehicles higher than August 2021 and August 2022. If you extend the timeline a little longer, sales in 2016, 2017, 2018, and August 2019 were all higher than in August of this year. Therefore, the commercial vehicle market, which had “3 consecutive increases” from March to May this year, cannot actually talk about recovery. The “continuous decline” that began in June still makes people feel more and more that the current commercial vehicle market is weak and weak, and even a bit chilly.

In terms of cumulative sales volume, the commercial vehicle market in 2024 only surpassed 2 million units after June. The cumulative sales volume after August was 2.6083 million units, up 2% year on year, and only ranked third in five years. Compared with the five-year high January-August 2021, there was a gap of over 0.8 million vehicles, and sold about 0.4 million more vehicles than the five-year lowest in January-August 2022. The cumulative increase was narrowing month by month. Currently, the cumulative increase is only 2% (as shown above), and the pressure on the commercial vehicle market will increase in the future.

Foton's 0.04 million cars took the lead, and Dongfeng/Heavy Truck/Changan 0.02 million cars competed for the top two

In August 2024, 11 companies in the commercial vehicle market sold more than 10,000 vehicles (SAIC Maxus, which ranked 11th in the monthly list, also sold more than 0.01 million vehicles in August), and the number of companies selling more than 10,000 vehicles per month increased by one compared to July. With a performance of 0.0418 million vehicles, Foton won its 7th monthly ranking in the commercial vehicle market this year.

As can be seen from the table above, in August 2024, the commercial vehicle market fell 12% year on year, up 5 percentage points from the previous month (-7%). As in previous months, the sales volume of mainstream commercial vehicle companies continued to increase and decrease in August compared with the same period last year. The sales volume of the top ten companies in August increased by 3 to 7: JAC, Jiefang, and Jiangling increased 4%, 1%, and 13% year on year, respectively. Among them, Jiefang and Jiangling both maintained a continuous increase against the trend, liberating “2 consecutive increases”, and Jiangling's continuous growth momentum has reached “6 consecutive increases.” At the same time, 5 of the companies that experienced a year-on-year decline reached double digits. The company with the worst decline saw a 55% year-on-year decline in sales in August. The growth rate of growing companies in August was lower than in July, but the decline in August was higher than in July. Seen from this perspective, the commercial vehicle market in August was indeed somewhat “cold.”

In terms of market share, the total share of the top ten sales companies reached 74.83% in August, and the total share of the top five companies continued to be close to 50%, reaching 47.83%. In August, there was still only one company with a share of more than 10% in the commercial vehicle market, with sales of 0.0418 million vehicles, with sales of 0.0418 million vehicles; Dongfeng, Sinotruk, and Changan, which ranked 2-4, all sold more than 0.02 million vehicles, with monthly shares of 8.80%, 8.44%, and 8.25%, respectively. The three companies continued to compete fiercely for the monthly ranking; JAC and Jiefang, which ranked 5th and 6th in the August monthly list, sold 0.0189 million vehicles respectively and 17,600 vehicles, with monthly shares of 6.95% and 6.49% respectively. The gap between neighboring companies was very small. The share gap between Jiefang and JAC in August was only 0.46%, the share difference between Sinotruk and Dongfeng in August was only 0.36%, and the difference was only 0.19% between Changan and Sinotruk.

The share gap between the lower ranked companies is also very small: Jiangling, which is ranked 7th, is 0.27% less than Jiefang in 6th place, 0.23% less than Great Wall, which is ranked 9th and 10th, and the monthly share difference between Wuling and Shaanxi Automobile, which is ranked 9th and 10th, is only 0.37%... The battle for seats in the commercial vehicle market is exciting and exciting every month of 2024.

Looking at the industry pattern, the top ten commercial vehicle sales rankings in August were exactly the same, but the rankings changed quite a bit: Dongfeng rose 2 places, from 4th place in the July monthly list to 2nd place in the August monthly list; JAC rose 3 places, from 8th place in the July monthly list to 5th place in the August monthly list; Jiefang rose 1 place, from 7th place in the July monthly list to 6th place in the August monthly list; the Great Wall rose 2 places, from 10th place in the July monthly list to 8th place in the August monthly list; Changan, Jianghuai, Wuling, and Shaanxi The rankings of the four companies, including Automobile, declined, and only Fukuda, which was at the top of the list, and the ranking remained the same. Sinotruk is in 3rd place.

Cumulative sales increased slightly by 2% in January-August, and the cumulative increase of Jiefang etc. reached double digits

From January to August 2024, the commercial vehicle market sold 2.6083 million vehicles, a cumulative increase of 2% over the previous year, about 0.0406 million more vehicles sold in January-August of last year. This figure reached 0.0784 million vehicles after July, and the cumulative increase was 1 percentage point narrower than after July (+3%).

Specifically, looking at the top ten companies with cumulative sales volume (which is also the top ten sales in August), Foton's cumulative sales volume has exceeded 0.35 million units, reaching 0.3787 million units, and the cumulative sales volume of Dongfeng, Changan, and Sinotruk has also exceeded 0.2 million vehicles, reaching 0.2579 million units, 0.2459 million units, and 237,300 units respectively; the three companies Jiefang, SAIC-GM, and JAC have all sold more than 0.15 million vehicles, reaching 0.1874 million units, respectively Million vehicles, 0.1818 million vehicles, and 161,000 units; the three companies, including JMC, Great Wall, and Shaanxi Automobile, all sold more than 0.11 million vehicles, reaching 0.1,382 million units, 0.1,177 million units, and 112,400 units, respectively.

Judging from the cumulative sales growth rate, most companies are currently in an upward range (as shown above). Among them, the cumulative sales volume of Changan, Jiefang, and Jiangling increased 15%, 15%, and 14% year-on-year respectively in January-August this year. They are the only 3 major commercial vehicle companies with a cumulative increase of double digits. The cumulative sales growth of companies such as Sinotruk, JAC, and Shaanxi Automobile in January-August is also higher than the overall increase in the market. At the same time, there are also 4 companies currently in a declining range. The cumulative sales volume of the company with the worst decline in January-August of this year fell 23% year on year. From the perspective of cumulative growth, the commercial vehicle market from January to August this year showed a scene where people were happy and others were sad.

In terms of cumulative share, the total share of the top ten companies with cumulative sales reached 77.34%, and the total share of the top five companies in the industry reached 50.12% (the total share of the top ten and the top five were both narrower than after July). Currently, only one company in Futian has a cumulative share of more than 10%, reaching 14.52%. Compared with the same period last year, companies such as Changan, Jiefang, JMC, Sinotruk, JAC, and Shaanxi Automobile achieved market share growth. Among them, the most obvious increase was Changan and Jiefang, which increased by 1.13 percentage points and 0.86 percentage points respectively.

Looking at the industry pattern, after August 2024, the top ten commercial vehicle industry has changed quite a bit compared to the top ten at the end of last year: Shaanxi Automobile entered the top ten and is currently temporarily ranked 10th in the industry (Shaanxi Automobile ranked 11th at the end of last year); Chongqing Changan rose 2 places to 3rd place in the industry (Changan ranked 5th place at the end of last year); Liberation rose one place from 6 at the end of last year to current 5th place in the industry; Jiangling also rose 9th place from the end of last year to 8th place in the current industry. At the same time, there were also companies that declined in their rankings and were even pushed out of the top ten in the industry. Four companies, Foton, Dongfeng, Sinotruk, and JAC, remained the same at the end of last year.