Yesterday, Trump and Harris held their first televised debate, which was also their first formal meeting.

Harris and Trump engaged in intense debates on various topics such as economic policies, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, abortion rights, and immigration issues. Unlike the previous debate between Trump and the current US President Biden, it is widely believed that Harris gained the upper hand in this debate. According to current data from Polymarket, Harris has a slight lead in support over Trump.

From the overnight financial market reaction, "Harris concept stocks" represented by photovoltaics and new energy performed strongly throughout the day. $Array Technologies(ARRY.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$First Solar (FSLR.US)$ Rises more than 15%, $Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Sunrun (RUN.US)$ $The aes corp(aes.us)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG.US)$ rose more than 8%, $Daqo New Energy (DQ.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ fell nearly 9%. On the news front, JPMorgan lowered its target price for SolarEdge Technologies from $73 to $59. The bank said that demand for solar energy in European residences is still relatively weak, due to high channel inventory, low electricity pricing, and recent uncertainties related to elections. JPMorgan also lowered its target price for solar energy company Enphase Energy from $128 to $124. Rose nearly 6%.

In addition, the lithium mining sector also surged, not only stimulated by the speculation of production cuts, but also one of the Harris trades. From the overnight trend, Albemarle (ALB.US) Up over 13%. $Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM.US)$ Up more than 10%, QuantumScape (QS.US) and others are up more than 5%.

while Donald Trump concept stocks are weak in performance. $Trump Media & Technology Group(DJT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Phunware (PHUN.US)$ Dropped more than 10%, $Humana (HUM.US)$ Dropped more than 5%, $Rumble (RUM.US)$ Dropped more than 4%.

In addition to the above-mentioned companies, the USD index and Bitcoin also experienced a slight decline. Trump has clearly stated his support for Bitcoin and has threatened to impose taxes on countries that do not use the USD, so these two assets are currently considered to be somewhat linked to Trump.

What are the core differences between the 'Harris trade' and the 'Trump trade'?

According to the latest research report from CITIC Securities, the core difference between the 'Harris trade' and the 'Trump trade' in the financial market may lie in different inflation and industry impacts.

If Harris is elected, the impact of his policy combination on US inflation may be relatively smaller than that of Trump. US stocks in the technology, consumer, and new energy sectors may benefit more, and Chinese companies may have broader opportunities to go global. For the financial market, the following three points may be worth paying attention to.

First, in terms of the impact on US inflation, Trump's policy combination may be more unfavorable for US inflation reduction compared to Harris. In terms of the impact on US finances, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate on May 8, extending Trump's tax cuts would increase the US fiscal deficit by $4.6 trillion over ten years. Similarly, Harris' core concept of the "opportunity economy" is also based on "big fiscal spending," and according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimate on August 16 of this year, Harris' subsidy policies for childbirth, housing, and other aspects may increase the deficit by $1.7 trillion over ten years.

In terms of the impact on US inflation, Trump plans to curb inflation by reducing energy costs. However, the cost of shale oil extraction in the US is no longer decreasing, companies lack the motivation to expand capital expenditure, and subsidies for traditional energy may be constrained by Congress. As for suppressing oil prices by forcing ceasefires in the Israeli-Palestinian and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, there are greater uncertainties in the multi-party dynamics, which are not fully controlled by the US. Therefore, if Trump's policy combination of "tax cuts + tariffs + immigration control" is implemented, it may be more unfavorable for US inflation reduction and thus have an impact on major asset classes.

Second, for the US market, based on the direction of their fiscal spending and their tendencies towards specific industries, technology, consumer, and new energy sectors may benefit more under Harris' leadership, while traditional cyclical sectors may benefit more under Trump's leadership.

Third, for the domestic market, if Harris is elected, Chinese companies may have broader opportunities to go global, while if Trump is elected, "domestic demand hedging + self-reliance" may be the main focus for the domestic market.

Ping An Securities predicts that the "Harris trade" may become one of the main themes in overseas markets in the short term.

Harris' tax increase policy will actually suppress US stock profits. Compared to Trump's tax cuts that boost US stock profits, the overall impact of the "Harris trade" is not bullish for US stocks, but certain sectors may benefit, such as the new energy sector supported by her policy advocacy and the media and technology sectors, which are major sources of her campaign funding. On the other hand, the negative impact on traditional energy and pharmaceutical sectors (due to Harris' support for universal healthcare and lower drug prices) will be more pronounced.

Previously, articles have compiled this information.Stocks that could potentially benefit if Harris wins:

Bullish: $Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Palo Alto Networks$.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$cleveland-cliffs (CLF.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Nucor (NUE.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.At the same time, the fund increased holdings in five stocks in the second quarter, including increasing its holding of Technology stocks from 0.5 million shares to 2.1 million shares, and increasing its holding of Cinemark shares from 5 million shares to 7 million shares, and increasing its holding of Taiwan Semiconductor shares from 1.18 million shares to 2.03 million shares.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.BHP Group LtdPlease use your Futubull account to access the feature.$te connectivity(TEL.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$First Solar (FSLR.US)$ And other companies;

Earlier, Jeffries also listed bearish stocks: $Costco (COST.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Hershey (HSY.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Kellanova (K.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Procter & GamblePlease use your Futubull account to access the feature.Including major retailers such as Target, retailers launched promotional shopping activities throughout July, attracting customers by providing huge discounts and competing with Amazon's sales activities.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Walmart (WMT.US)$andAdobe (ADBE.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.bought more shares of Discover Financial Services (DFS.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Google-A (GOOGL.US) also had two splits, the most recent being in 2022. Nvidia is about to undergo its sixth split since 2000.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.the cigna groupPlease use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CVS Health (CVS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Broadcom(AVGO.US)$ According to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some of the most prominent actions Third Point took in the second quarter, respectively, were to establish positions, shareholding of and more.

However, in terms of the election situation, according to historical patterns, polls usually underestimate Trump, and Citic Securities believes that the current election situation still has suspense. Therefore, there is also a high probability that Trump will come out on top, and the companies that will benefit from Trump's victory are as follows:

Bullish: $AGCO (AGCO.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Deere & Company(DE.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$US Steel (X.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$N/A.$Norfolk Southern (NSC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$ebay(EBAY.US)$ Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Etsy Inc(etsy inc)$ fell 1%, and Amazon's stock price extended its gains. The stock price of PDD Holdings fell 1.3%, while Etsy's stock price remained roughly flat.N/A.Microchip Technology (MCHP.US).Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Investors who only hold long positions are overallocated in stocks including Microchip Technology, On Semiconductor, Texas Instruments and Qualcomm (QCOM.US), while hedge funds are most overallocated in stocks including Teradyne, Qualcomm, Micron (MU.US), Cadence Design Systems, and Qorvo.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Affirm Holdings.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Amgen (AMGN.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$British American Tobacco (BTI.US)$N/A.Altria Group (MO.US) Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.bought more shares of Discover Financial Services (DFS.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Enova (ENVA.US)$ 、  $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Vertex Pharmaceuticals(VRTX.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Ford Motor (F.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$General Motors (GM.US)$.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Merck (MRK.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN.US) And other companies;

Previously, Jeffries also listed bearish stocks: Analog Devices (ADI.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Albemarle (ALB.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Progressive (PGR.US) Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$te connectivity(TEL.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$HCA Healthcare(HCA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$ Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Google-A (GOOGL.US) also had two splits, the most recent being in 2022. Nvidia is about to undergo its sixth split since 2000.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ According to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some of the most prominent actions Third Point took in the second quarter, respectively, were to establish positions, shareholding of and more.

CITIC Securities reminds that previous US elections have often been accompanied by frequent changes in the situation, such as the "email gate" incident involving Hillary in 2016, which led to a significant change in the polls. Therefore, there is still the possibility of unexpected changes in the subsequent election situation.

In the future, you can continue to pay attention to the progress of the vice presidential debates on October 1st and the potential impact of the US economic situation on the election before November. On October 1st, Vice President Harris and Vice President Pence will participate in the vice presidential debates hosted by CBS News in New York.

The 2024 US presidential election is full of changes. How can investors catch money-making opportunities in bull and bear markets?Deployment guide >>

US election is in a close race! How to track related concept stocks? Open Tuniu > US stocks.concept sector> Quickly identify Donald Trump concept stocks / Kamala Harris concept stocks!

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