他提及，若要构建一个风险分散的投资组合，仅配置股票其实不足够，投资者还应考虑债券。减息无疑有利债券表现，而投资者可留意美国国债及其相关ETF。美国国债风险较低，适合大多数投资者。至于企业债方面，由于信用利差于早前已大幅收窄至近年低位，同时经济放缓可能使部分企业的财务及盈利出现下滑，届时企业债的信用利差会扩阔，所以现时美国国债较企业债有较佳的经风险调整后回报。I believe there is a great opportunity for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 2 to 3 times this year, with each rate cut being 25 basis points, providing a favorable macroeconomic policy environment for different financial assets.
According to the Futu Finance app, Xue Yonghui, director and CIO of Hang Seng Investment Management Limited, said that with the steady slowdown of the US economy and gradual decline in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has explicitly stated that it is time for policy adjustments. Unlike in the past, when the Federal Reserve had to make significant interest rate cuts due to financial or economic crises, this adjustment in monetary policy is due to interest rates being at a high level, and there are signs of weakness in the US economy, especially in the job market. This supports the move towards monetary policy normalization. I believe there is a great opportunity for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 2 to 3 times this year, with each rate cut being 25 basis points, providing a favorable macroeconomic policy environment for different financial assets.
In terms of stocks, Xue Yonghui pointed out that the United States is about to enter an interest rate cutting cycle, which will lower financing costs and benefit companies in various industries to effectively deploy investments and improve profitability. The bank has noticed that the earnings growth of components of the S&P 500 index, excluding the seven major technology stocks, is gradually improving, reducing the excessive reliance on the technology giants and helping to sustain the performance of the stock market. Overall, the bank maintains a cautious optimism about the prospects of AI and technology stocks, but will closely monitor potential risks and challenges, while also expecting other industries to bring positive momentum to the stock market.
He mentioned that in order to build a diversified investment portfolio, it is not enough to only allocate stocks. Investors should also consider bonds. Interest rate cuts undoubtedly benefit bond performance, and investors can pay attention to US Treasury bonds and related ETFs. US Treasury bonds have low risk and are suitable for most investors. As for corporate bonds, due to the narrowing of credit spreads to near recent lows, and the possibility of financial and profit declines for some companies due to economic slowdown, the credit spreads of corporate bonds are expected to widen. Therefore, US Treasury bonds currently have better risk-adjusted returns compared to corporate bonds.
He pointed out that based on historical data, it has been observed that when the Hang Seng Index dividend yield falls to around 4.5%, the Hang Seng Index mostly experiences a rebound. Currently, the dividend yield of the Hang Seng Index is also close to 4.5%, but there is a lack of strong catalysts at the moment. Unless political risks are reduced or mainland China introduces surprising policies to increase policy support, a more conservative strategy will be adopted for Hong Kong stocks, with more allocation to defensive stocks. It is also believed that the current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is cheap, and there is a long-term bullish view on sectors such as technology.
