Yesterday, the CPI data was announced to be lower than market expectations, and it is basically certain that a 25 basis point interest rate cut has become a high probability event. Top-tier cryptocurrencies have stopped falling and are showing a slight rebound. Market participants are all waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting next week. This will be the first rate cut after a prolonged period of high interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and it is expected to have a significant impact on the market. The market volatility is expected to increase significantly next week.

In terms of ETFs, Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $43 million yesterday, while Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of $5 million, reflecting the overall cautious sentiment of market participants towards the market. The market is unable to form a continuous net inflow or outflow.

In terms of the crypto ecosystem, after the launch of Bitcoin, the hash rate has soared, which has sparked widespread discussion and attention within the industry. It is recommended that investors closely monitor the future development of this project.

Will CZ show his prowess after being released from prison?

Although CZ may not have direct management control over Binance after being released from prison, he still remains the largest shareholder with real power, still controlling key decision-making and serving as the spiritual benchmark for BNB.

It is worth noting that CZ placed great importance on education before going to prison, and it is expected that he will further promote the development of this field after his release.

BNB has recently shown strong performance, and the market speculates that it is related to CZ's upcoming return and the launch of new IEO projects. Additionally, Binance added an API for CAT last night, indicating that the listing rumors are likely true. CAT has taken off, and Aave has also been performing strongly recently. It has been said that Aave will cooperate with CB to launch CBBTC, and Aave has previously collaborated with a new project by Donald Trump, as well as entering the RWA track. Based on the current trend, it seems that Aave has entered the next phase of the market. I remember that in the previous bull market, Aave entered the market ahead of most others, is history going to repeat itself this time?

All the important economic data before the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been released, and the conclusion is that inflation is continuously cooling down and the economy may decline, necessitating a rate cut.

Next Thursday, September 19, 2:00 am, the Fed interest rate decision will determine whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, and there may be two more rate cuts this year.

The recent ups and downs in the market are normal phenomena.

Looking back at yesterday's market, it is still dominated by fluctuations. After the CPI data was released yesterday, it fell all the way to $55,545, and then quickly rebounded to fill the loss. Today, the highest price has reached around $58,500. It is considered a rebound until it breaks through $62,000 with volume. The short-term resistance is around $59,200, and the extreme resistance can be seen around $60,500, with bottom support near $54,800.

CPI is indeed bullish, but the market did not rise as expected. It is estimated that 30,000 coins were sold by miners yesterday, coupled with Grayscale's sell-off and the impact of the pre-market decline in the U.S. dollar, which led to a decline in the market. However, it later recovered. Currently, it is stable at around 5.8. The recent drop is suspected to be a washout of long positions. The target remains unchanged. The next step after stabilizing at 5.8 is to reach 60,000.

All important economic data before the first rate cut by the Fed has been released. The conclusion is that inflation continues to cool down, the economy may decline, and a rate cut is necessary.

Next Thursday, September 19, 2:00 am, the Fed interest rate decision will determine whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. However, now the data basically points to a 25-point rate cut.

If Bitcoin rises to 60,000 in the near future, it may be a good time to take profits for short-term positions and re-enter on the downside. As for long-term positions, don't give up before dawn. The risk signal confirms a lower low, indicating that Bitcoin is not in a bear market, but is waiting in a re-accumulation pattern.

How to grasp the trend based on the cycle at present?

The cycle is divided into large cycles and small cycles.

The large cycle refers to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, which represents whether the money is loose or tight.

The small cycle is about making judgments, whether it is the early, middle, or late stage of interest rate hikes. Is it entering a pause in interest rate hikes, or entering the late stage of a pause in interest rate hikes? Looking back at historical data, we can see that:

1. The early stage of interest rate hikes is a destructive blow to the entire risk market, whether it is in cryptocurrencies or US stocks, it tends to decline. As interest rate hikes approach their end, the entire risk market begins to rise.

2. Entering a period of paused interest rate hikes, from a macro perspective, is positive for the risk market.

Therefore, in terms of operation, sell at the beginning of interest rate hikes, and when interest rate hikes reach their bottom, start buying as people begin to predict the onset of a pause in interest rate hikes. During the period of interest rate cuts, if there is no economic recession in the early stage of the cuts, it is still possible to hold positions. If there is an economic recession, then selling is a better choice. In this way, you may not be able to accurately sell at the peak, but you can definitely capture 70% of the entire upward cycle with very low risk.

In addition, there is another cycle, which is to buy more when it falls before the midterm elections, because it may perform better after the midterm elections. Based on historical data, this has been the case in 14 out of 15 occasions, with a profit potential of at least 40%-50%.

Currently, I personally believe that there are certain symbols that are relatively worth positioning.

FTM has returned to $0.5. The project has strong capabilities and the target is set at $0.9.

CHR, with a long-term target of $1, is currently developing various ecosystems and focuses on gaming public chains, targeting IMX.

Matic is rebranded as POL and follows the rebound of BTC. STX will complete the upgrade at the end of the month, with more to come. Continue to hold.

Poeple is a concept related to the US elections, there may be another wave. Klay and Astr are the national chains of South Korea and Japan.