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儒竞科技(301525):热泵去库或接近尾声 新能源车持续高增

Rujing Technology (301525): Heat pumps are being stored or nearing the end, new energy vehicles continue to increase rapidly

東吳證券 ·  Sep 12

Deeply involved in the field of heat pump controllers, the performance fell short of expectations. The company was founded in 2003 and focuses on drive & controller products in the field of power electronics technology, with three downstream applications: HVAC/R (HVAC/R), heat management for new energy vehicles (heat pump/PTC), and servo drive systems. The company's 2024H1 revenue was 0.658 billion yuan, -16% year on year, net profit to mother 0.094 billion yuan, -19% year on year, gross profit margin 22.63%, -2.25pct year on year, net profit margin 14.21%, and -0.56 pct year on year. Among them, 24Q2 revenue was 0.364 billion yuan, -14% year on year, net profit to mother 0.05 billion yuan, -30% year-on-year, gross profit margin 21.67%, -3.04pct year on year, net interest rate to mother 13.83%, and -3.61 pct year on year. The performance fell short of market expectations.

HVAC/R: The impact of short-term storage cycles does not change the trend of improving energy efficiency. 24H1's revenue in the field of HVAC and refrigeration equipment was 0.44 billion yuan, -32% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 21.7%, and -3.7 pct year-on-year. This is mainly due to a decline in short-term demand due to falling energy prices in the early period, and the industry continues to be in the storage cycle. However, in the context of the low-carbon transition, the long-term trend of energy saving and environmental protection in various countries is clear, and the policy side continues to be supported. For example, in November 23, the EU launched a power grid action plan to meet more renewable energy and electrification needs in the energy system, including heat pumps.

New energy vehicle thermal management: Performance continues to increase, and market share has further increased. 24H1's NEV thermal management revenue was 0.2 billion yuan, +69% year over year, gross profit margin of 25.1%, and +0.9 pct year over year. The company's products are mainly used in many mainstream models. The company will continue to increase research and development of intelligent controllers and all-in-one controllers in the field of NEV thermal management, and we expect the market share to increase further.

Expenses were continuously controlled during the period, and R&D investment remained high. The company spent 0.065 billion yuan during the 24H1 period, +16% year on year, 9.9%, and +2.7 pct year on year. Among them, the 24H1 R&D cost was 0.055 billion yuan, +37% over the same period. The main reason is that the company increased R&D investment in application industries and robotics segments in the field of automation to develop servo products integrating customer customization, industry customization, and drive control.

Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering that the heat pump is still in the storage cycle, we lowered the company's net profit to 0.219/0.288 billion yuan in 24-25 years (the original value was 0.376/0.528 billion yuan), which is estimated to be 0.361 billion yuan in 26 years, +1%/+32%/+25%, corresponding PE is 23x, 17x, 14x. Considering the long-term trend of energy efficiency improvement, the heat pump market maintains a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn, sales of new energy vehicles falling short of expectations, heat pump storage falling short of expectations, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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