固定收益管理公司太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)前首席执行官、太平洋投资管理公司母公司安联集团(Allianz SE)的经济顾问埃尔·埃利安(El·Erian)在X上发帖称:“两年期美国国债收益率总计超过20个基点的单日波动在历史上是不寻常的。”Economist Mohamed El Erian said that two-year US Treasury yields fluctuated sharply on Wednesday, highlighting the lack of firm statements about the trajectory of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's guidance on monetary policy.
Economist Mohamed El Erian said that two-year US Treasury yields fluctuated sharply on Wednesday, highlighting the lack of firm statements about the trajectory of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's guidance on monetary policy.
On Wednesday, the 2-year US Treasury yield fell to its lowest level in two years, reaching 3.55% before the August CPI report was released. However, after the report showed that the increase in core CPI exceeded expectations, the yield fluctuated, soaring to 3.7%, then falling back to 3.59%, then rising to 3.68%.
El Erian (El Erian), a former CEO of the fixed income management company Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) and economic adviser to Allianz SE (Allianz SE), the parent company of Pacific Investment Management, posted on X: “Single-day fluctuations in two-year US Treasury yields totaling more than 20 basis points are unusual in history.”
“This is part of the current 'anchorless' model, which urgently requires stable influence. This impact usually comes from dominant economic narratives, not current ping pong narratives, or forward-looking policy guidance, rather than an era where the Federal Reserve relies too much on data.” El Erian said.
El Erian has previously stated that the market has lost its policy and economic pillars. “If the Federal Reserve relies too much on data, it cannot provide enough forward-looking predictions,” he said in an interview in October 2023. In March of this year, he said that the Federal Reserve's “capricious” policy guidance has caused market fluctuations.
Last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will start cutting interest rates in September. He said the weakening job market makes it unlikely to be a source of upward pressure on inflation.
Weak data such as the job market and manufacturing industry challenges the claim that the US will land softly. Fears about the recession this summer prompted the Nasdaq Composite Index to enter an adjustment and dragged the S&P 500 index back from the all-time high set in July. Since then, however, both major benchmark indices have recovered most of their losses.
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