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中国海外发展(0688.HK):销售及利润规模双领先 商业收入稳步增长

China Overseas Development (0688.HK): Steady growth in commercial revenue, leading both in terms of sales and profit scale

第一上海 ·  Sep 10

2024H1 ranked first in equity sales: In the first half of 2024, the company achieved contract sales of about 148.4 billion yuan, an increase of 17.6% over the previous year, ranking second in the industry and number one in equity caliber sales. The contract sales area was about 5.44 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 32.3%, and the average contract price increased 21.7% to 27,279 yuan/square meter. The overall market share increased by 0.49 ppt to 3.15%. The company still focuses on the layout of mainstream locations in mainstream cities. The contract sales amount in Tier 1 and 2 cities increased from 74% to 83% of the contract sales amount of the group's series companies (excluding Zhonghai Hongyang) at the end of 2023. Among them, Beishang Guangshen achieved sales volume of 74.4 billion yuan, accounting for 62.7% of the overall sales amount, mainly due to the fact that the improved high-end products first launched by the company were popular against the market.

Adequate land reserves: In the first half of 2024, the company added a total land purchase amount of 12.89 billion yuan, and the additional land construction area was 1.17 million square meters. As of the end of June 2024, the company's total land reserves were about 49.05 million square meters (of which Zhonghai Hongyang Soil Storage was 15.83 million square meters). The uncarried amount sold by the Group's affiliated companies was 254.1 billion yuan (of which CNOOC Hongyang was 43.2 billion yuan), an increase of 7.1% over the end of 23, providing sufficient guarantee for a steady increase in subsequent performance.

Profit margins remained industry-leading, and financing costs remained in the lowest range in the industry: during the period, the company's overall gross margin was 22.1%, down 0.5 ppt year on year; core net profit attributable to shareholders fell 23.0% year on year to 10.64 billion yuan (revaluation and appreciation of investment properties after tax), core net profit margin was 12.2%, leading the industry in value creation capacity. The company declared an interim dividend of HK30 cents per share, increasing the interim dividend ratio by 4 percentage points to 28.3%. The company's balance ratio is about 56.1%, the net debt ratio is about 38.7%, and the average financing cost is about 3.5%. The company's cash on hand is about 100.24 billion yuan, accounting for 11.0% of total assets, and the share of RMB loans increased to 74.8%. The financing structure continues to be optimized, and development momentum is sufficient.

The commercial operation business grew steadily: The company's commercial operating revenue increased 20.0% year-on-year to 3.54 billion yuan during the period, with first-tier cities accounting for 42% of the revenue. Among them, the office business withstood market pressure, with a new contract area of 0.56 million square meters, a occupancy rate of 76.2%, revenue growth of 6.4% against the market to 1.76 billion yuan, and the commercial operating revenue segment accounted for 50% of revenue. The shopping center business maintained high growth, with a occupancy rate of 96.6%, overall sales increased 30% year over year, and same-store sales increased 7% year over year, driving a sharp increase of 57.6% year over year to 1.11 billion yuan.

Target price HK$18.2, purchase rating: The company's land storage is highly focused on high-energy cities and core regions, leading the industry in development and operation efficiency and profitability, and has a steady operating capacity and financial structure, and its market share is constantly increasing. At the same time, financing capacity and cost advantages will enable the company to obtain more high-quality soil storage and support the company's continuous improvement of profits and long-term development. The company's core net profit from 2024 to 2026 is estimated to be $22.3 billion, $22.9 billion, and $23.6 billion, respectively, giving a price-earnings ratio of 8 times in 2024, with a target price of HK$18.2, and a purchase rating.

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