成本修复主导煤电业绩，电价回落限制气电表现。上半年受西南水电大发以及机组退役影响，公司煤电上半年完成发电量413.71 亿千瓦时，同比减少7.88%；而气电则在装机同比增长59.43%的拉动下，上半年发电量达到112.65 亿千瓦时，同比增加31.45%，但低于装机增速。由于广东省年度长协电价同比回落，从而使得火电业务在量价均有压力的背景下，煤电业务上半年实现营收172.94 亿元，同比下降17.01%；气电虽然电量高速增长，但在电价承压背景下，气电业务收入为64.04 亿元，同比增长18.50%。得益于今年以来煤炭价格稳步回落，上半年Q5500 动力煤市场价均值874.88 元/吨，同比下降14.40%，煤炭价格的下降主导公司煤电业务表现，上半年煤电业务实现归母净利润3.06亿元，同比增长47.72%。而气电业务则在电价承压，成本快速增长的影响下，上半年实现归母净利润1.44 亿元，同比下降43.45%。Description of the event
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report: in the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 26.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.98%; realized net profit to mother of 0.903 billion yuan, an increase of 5.42% over the previous year.
Incident comments
Cost recovery dominates coal and electricity performance, while falling electricity prices limit gas and electricity performance. The first half of the year was affected by the southwest hydropower generation and unit decommissioning. The company's coal power generation capacity in the first half of the year was 41.371 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 7.88%; while gas and electricity, driven by a 59.43% year-on-year increase in installed capacity, reached 11.265 billion kilowatt-hours in the first half of the year, an increase of 31.45% year on year, but lower than the installed growth rate. Due to the year-on-year decline in electricity prices in Guangdong Province, the coal power business achieved revenue of 17.294 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 17.01% in the context of both volume and price pressure. Although gas and electricity were growing rapidly, in the context of electricity price pressure, gas and electricity business revenue was 6.404 billion yuan, an increase of 18.50% year on year. Thanks to the steady decline in coal prices since this year, the average market price of Q5500 thermal coal in the first half of the year was 874.88 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 14.40%. The decline in coal prices dominated the company's coal power business performance. The coal power business achieved net profit of 0.306 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 47.72% over the previous year. Meanwhile, the gas and electricity business achieved net profit of 0.144 billion yuan in the first half of the year due to pressure on electricity prices and rapid cost growth, a year-on-year decrease of 43.45%.
Incoming water repairs hydropower losses, and weak incoming wind limits the performance of new energy sources. Thanks to the restoration of incoming water in the first half of the year, hydropower completed power generation of 0.112 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 14.29% over the previous year. Driven by the increase in electricity volume, the company's hydropower business achieved net profit of 10.15 million yuan to mother in the first half of the year, a sharp decrease from the loss of 23.96 million yuan in the same period last year. In terms of the new energy business, by the end of the first half of the year, the company controlled wind power installed capacity reached 3.395 million kilowatts, an increase of 44.78% year on year; the installed photovoltaic capacity reached 2.3855 million kilowatts, a significant increase of 877.26% year on year. Thanks to the rapid growth of installed capacity, the company completed 2.702 billion kilowatt-hours of wind power generation in the first half of the year, an increase of 5.59% over the previous year. Poor wind power growth in the first half of the year limited wind power growth. PV completed 1.065 billion kilowatt-hours of power generation, compared to 0.051 billion kilowatt-hours in the same period last year. Overall, however, thanks to the rapid growth in photovoltaic power, the company's renewable energy business, which includes wind power, photovoltaics, hydropower, biomass and other power sources, achieved revenue of 2.037 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 14.83% year on year, and gross margin also increased 1.47 percentage points year on year.
However, it is estimated that the increase in gross margin of renewable energy is mainly due to the impact of hydropower. The overall profitability of new energy sources is still under pressure to a certain extent due to the year-on-year decline in electricity prices and usage hours. As a result, the company's new energy business achieved net profit of 0.198 billion yuan to mother in the first half of the year, a decrease of 34.18% over the previous year. In addition, the company's participation in Shanxi Guangdong Electric Power Company declined due to falling coal prices and participation in Guohua Guangdong Radio Taishan Power Generation, and its contribution performance declined. As a result, the company's investment income for the first half of the year was 0.546 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.15% over the previous year. Overall, thanks to the recovery in the coal and power business performance, the company achieved net profit of 0.903 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 5.42% over the previous year.
Investment advice: According to the latest financial data, we expect the company's EPS in 2024-2026 to be 0.40 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, corresponding PE of 10.43 times, 8.12 times, and 6.75 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. The risk that the progress and benefits of the commissioning of new construction projects fall short of expectations;
2. Wind conditions and lighting resources fall short of expected risks.
