According to the analysis from well-known on-chain institution CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has been in a put phase since August 27th. While gold continues to reach new all-time highs, Bitcoin has "decoupled" from gold and is currently more than 20% below its previous all-time high. The market cap to realized value ratio (MVRV) of Bitcoin is lower than its 365-day moving average, indicating that the price may further adjust.

In the current risk-averse environment, investors seem to prefer traditional safe-haven assets like gold over Bitcoin. #LatestNewsOnBitcoin#

According to CryptoQuant, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has recently significantly decreased. While the price of gold has reached a new high of over $2,500 per ounce, the price of Bitcoin has been declining and is now more than 20% below its historical high of over $73,000 set in March.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

Investors are buying gold and selling Bitcoin, and the US stock market is also in trouble, with the S&P 500 index falling 3.6% since August 30th.

CryptoQuant's bull and bear market cycle indicator has been in a bear market phase since August 27th, when the trading price of Bitcoin was $62,000.

CryptoQuant stated that since August 26th, the MVRV ratio has been consistently lower than its 365-day moving average, indicating that the price may further correct. A drop in the MVRV ratio below the moving average was a precursor to the 36% decline in May 2021.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

CryptoQuant mentioned that the fall in Bitcoin price is also accompanied by the decline in the US dollar index, which is another indicator of broader risk aversion and uncertainty.

The US presidential TV debate on Wednesday, September 11th, sparked investors' interest. Despite former president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's efforts to court crypto voters' support, he did not mention the crypto market, affecting the demand for Bitcoin.

Subsequently, US economic data drove fluctuations in Bitcoin prices, with the market initially betting on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

The US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year inflation rate fell from 2.9% in July to 2.5% in August, supporting expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. However, the core inflation rate in August remained at 3.2%, dampening hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin responded to this by briefly touching a low of $55,593 during the session before rebounding. Stable core inflation data suppressed investors' sentiment regarding a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance.

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September decreased from 34.0% on September 10th to 15.0% on September 11th.

On Wednesday, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw the first outflow of funds in three trading days, reflecting sentiment towards US core inflation data and the decreasing expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

According to Farside Investors data, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin spot ETF (ARKB) saw a net outflow of $54 million, Grayscale Bitcoin spot ETF (GBTC) saw a net outflow of $4.6 million, while Fidelity Bitcoin spot ETF (FBTC) reported a net inflow of $12.6 million.

Excluding the fund flow of BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT), the net outflow of US Bitcoin Spot ETF is 43.9 million USD, leading to losses in Bitcoin. The fund flow of US Bitcoin Spot ETF affects the demand for Bitcoin, thereby affecting the price trend of Bitcoin.

Later on Thursday, the initial claims for unemployment benefits and producer prices may further affect people's views on the Fed's interest rate path. Lower producer prices and higher initial claims for unemployment benefits may rekindle hopes for a 50 basis point Fed rate cut, potentially pushing Bitcoin up to 60,000 USD.

However, if the initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly soar above 0.25 million, concerns about an economic recession may resurface, thus having an adverse impact on the demand for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

FXEmpire analyst Bob Mason stated that Bitcoin is hovering below the 50-day and 200-day EMA, confirming bearish price signals.

A breakthrough of 58,000 USD may empower the bulls at the 200-day and 50-day EMA. Furthermore, a breakthrough of the 50-day EMA may support a move towards the 60,365 USD resistance level.

Conversely, a drop below 55,000 USD may enable support at 52,884 USD.

The 14-day RSI reading is 48.23, indicating that Bitcoin may drop below 55,000 USD and enter oversold territory.

(Source: FXEmpire)