Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

The small telecommunications company that wants to compete with SpaceX. $AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$ In just six months, it soared from $2 to $28 and became one of the hottest stocks in the world this year. Now, it faces a crucial test to prove the justification for its sharp rise. On Thursday morning, AST will launch its first batch of five commercial satellites into near-earth orbit, hitching a ride on a SpaceX rocket at Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Since hitting a historical low in April, AST's stock price has risen by about 1300%, making it one of the best-performing small-cap stocks in the past six months.$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$The best performing stock in China. As of August 19th, AST's stock price reached a high of $38.60, an increase of over 1800% from its low in April. Since then, the stock has retraced some of its gains, but still maintains a significant increase. The stock rose 6.9% on Wednesday and closed at $27.90; it continues to rise in after-hours trading, with a current increase of 3.58%.

However, over 20% of the company's outstanding shares are being short sold, a figure that has remained relatively stable for some time, indicating people's skeptical outlook on the stock's prospects. Nevertheless, this could also lead to a significant positive reaction for the stock.

After merging with special purpose acquisition company New Providence Acquisition Corp., AST went public in April 2021, with its stock closing near $12 on the first day of trading. However, it began a long-term decline shortly after and briefly fell below $2 on April 2nd and 3rd this year.

A month later, the situation began to improve. First, AST reached an agreement with AMC Entertainment on May 15th to cooperate in providing space wireless services, thus competing with Elon Musk's space exploration technology company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. $AT&T (T.US)$ Two weeks later, they also reached a similar agreement with Deutsche Bank. $T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)$ Two weeks later, they also reached a similar agreement with Deutsche Bank. $Verizon (VZ.US)$ It is reported that the company will invest 0.1 billion dollars in a joint venture, which subsequently boosted the company's stock price.

Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello, in an interview, stated: "The recent increase is just recognition of the work the company has done over the years. The stock should not fall to $2."

Now, this Midland, Texas-based company is facing its "showtime" moment as a satellite the size of a one-bedroom apartment is set to launch. AST is one of the few companies attempting to provide broadband cellular connectivity through low-earth orbit satellites instead of signal towers, with plans to eventually have dozens of satellites running in orbit over 300 miles above the Earth.

The company stated in a statement to Bloomberg: "We have combined solid business strategy with innovative technology, and we believe this will successfully drive our mission forward."

"Flying Car"

Kevin Mak, Director of the Real-time Analysis and Investment Laboratory at Stanford Graduate School of Business, said in an interview: "It offers an amazing technology that has a wide range of applications, is highly scalable, and is very important." "It's like having a flying car and saying, 'We have a flying car, and you can use it tomorrow.'"

However, skeptics remain. Sahm Adrangi, founder of Kerrisdale Capital Management, said: "This valuation includes a surprisingly optimistic outlook that I don't think will materialize, and investors may be disappointed. We still have no idea if their business model and ambitions are viable in any economic model. We won't know after this launch or the next launch. We don't know who will be the winner or how long it will take."

That being said, shorting AST this year has been a terrible trade. According to data from Matthew Unterman, Managing Director at S3 Partners LLC, investors shorting the company's stock have accumulated paper losses of over $0.6 billion in the past six months.

According to Bloomberg tracking, AST is followed by five Wall Street analysts, all of whom have given a buy rating and a target price of a 57% increase in the stock price over the next year. All of the companies tracking the stock have had investment banking relationships with AST at least in the past.

Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft recently raised AST's target price from $22 to $63, stating that the stock is worth adopting a new valuation method considering the improvement in the company's risk profile.

With the upcoming launch, AST will have the opportunity to demonstrate its technological potential. Mak from Stanford University said, "These five satellites will be a true proof of concept."

SPAC success.

For some time, AST's management has been touting its ambitious goals. The company's stock soared in the slides released when announcing the SPAC plan, with projected revenue expected to exceed $16 billion by 2030. The company's sales in the first half of this year were $1.4 million, and by the end of 2024, the annual revenue is expected to exceed $1 billion, which will be significantly lower than the initial estimate.

However, in the midst of a significant impact on other space-related SPAC mergers, the stock's performance remains a relatively successful story.$Planet Labs PBC (PL.US)$Listed in 2021, the stock price climbed to $11.84 and is currently around $2.$Terran Orbital (LLAP.US)$ Corp.'s stock price reached as high as $11.80 in March 2022, and is currently around $0.25.

Last weekend, AST's stock price plummeted after the company applied to sell up to $0.4 billion worth of shares through an at-the-market (ATM) offering, which allows its bankers to create tradable shares without submitting additional documents.

This financing mechanism does not mean that the stock issuance has started. Many companies have applied for financing mechanisms, but have not taken action to utilize them. However, this move has always been$GameStop (GME.US)$and $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ a hallmark of meme stocks.

The company stated in a statement, "We have a balanced financing strategy, including prepayments from commercial agreements with partners and opportunities to enter different capital markets."

Meanwhile, AST CEO Abel Avellan stated in last month's earnings conference call that AST is focusing on building the next batch of 17 satellites. The company expects to need 45 to 60 satellites in the end to provide continuous service to the continental United States.

HHennessy Funds still holds positions in AST as of June 30. Brian Macauley, the portfolio manager of the fund, said, 'Satellites are a very important concept validation. But if they encounter some challenges, the company still has funding to improve and launch more Bluebird satellites. It is an iterative process, and they will have many shots at the target to ensure accuracy.'

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Editor / jayden