Piper Sandler downgraded Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:SUPN), saying that the anticipated surge in Qelbree prescriptions during the back-to-school season has not materialized as expected.
"That has us rethinking our assumptions regarding the longer-term (LT) sales/volume growth trajectory of the product," the analyst adds.
Qelbree (viloxazine) is indicated to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in children and adults.
In the second quarter of 2024, net sales of Qelbree increased 92% year over year to $59.4 million, and total IQVIA prescriptions were 184,342, up 26%.
Piper writes that the management's focus on optimizing Qelbree's net economics, such as reducing copay assistance, suggests that future volume growth may be more modest. While initial estimates projected peak sales nearing $500 million, Piper writes that $400 million is a more realistic target.
The Piper analyst writes that Qelbree is growing and highlights that YTD prescriptions increased 91% in 2023 compared to 2022.
Piper has downgraded Supernus Pharmaceuticals to Neutral from Overweight, with a price target of $36, down from $41.
Quarter-to-date prescriptions have grown by about 1% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter, following a 4% increase in the second quarter over the first quarter. In contrast, prescriptions for all ADHD products have declined sequentially by around 2% quarter-to-date in the third quarter.
A Piper analyst expects volume growth for Qelbree to accelerate during the back-to-school season but anticipates a slower growth trajectory than initially expected, prompting a reassessment of the drug's peak sales potential.
In August, the FDA acknowledged the resubmission of the new drug application (NDA) for the company's apomorphine infusion device (SPN-830) for the continuous treatment of motor fluctuations (OFF episodes) in Parkinson's disease.
The resubmission is now filed, with a user fee goal date (PDUFA date) of February 1, 2025.
In April, the FDA issued a Complete Response Letter related to SPN-830, requiring additional information regarding the product quality and the master file for the infusion device.
Price Action: SUPN stock is down 7.17% at $31.09 at last check Wednesday.
Photo via Shutterstock
- Chinese EV Manufacturers BYD And Geely Storm Frankfurt Fair As EU Tariffs Threaten To Crimp Their Global EV Push: Report.
