Zhitong Finance App learned that Yan Zhaojun, an international strategy analyst at China and Thailand, believes that the current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is still low. The Hang Seng Index predicts that the price-earnings ratio will recover to 8.3 times, but it is still at a historically low level. Based on factors such as fundamentals, profitability, capital, and valuation, the reasonable operating range of the Hang Seng Index is expected to be 16,800 to 18,300 points in September.

Yan Zhaojun pointed out that the market expects the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September to further open up monetary policy space for the People's Bank of China, but the interest rate cut during the year may be lower than current market expectations. Under the central government's “structural adjustment” and “risk prevention” policy framework, the central bank has always maintained the prudence of monetary policy. After September, China will expand the sector of consumption and trade, accelerate real estate storage and affordable housing construction, and potentially reduce the stock of housing loans, etc.

Yan Zhaojun said that historically, Hong Kong stocks generally performed well in various sectors in the month before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but the performance of 1, 3 and 6 months after the interest rate cut was quite mixed. Consumption, technology, health care and energy performance were better. However, interest rate cuts only affected stock price increases and would not change the direction of stock prices. The decisive factor was still mostly determined by the fundamentals of the Chinese economy.

The shares recommended by Zhongtai International in September are Alibaba (09988), China Unicom (00762), Hong Kong Telecom (06823), Tongcheng Travel (00780), China Resources Vientiane Life (01209), Yadi Holdings (01585), AIA (01299), Geely Auto (00175), and Guangdong Investment (00270).