维持“增持” 评级。公司 2024 年上半年实现营收 134.11 亿元，同比下降10.44%；实现归母净利润10.07 亿元，同比下降39.56%，公司业绩低于预期。考虑到行业价格持续下行，下调公司2024-25 年归母净利润预测为19.59/21.24 亿元（原33.56/36.43 亿元），新增2026年归母净利润预测为23.74 亿元，对应EPS 为0.7/0.76/0.85 元。考虑到行业整体估值水平的下移，参考同类公司，给予公司2024 年15倍PE 进行估值，下调公司目标价至10.5 元（原12.74 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's performance for the first half of 2024 fell short of expectations. The ferrosilicon and PVC industries are at the bottom of the cycle, and the company's performance is being dragged down by prices. The company's cash flow is steady, and the repurchase combined dividends highlight the company's investment value.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company achieved revenue of 13.411 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.44%; realized net profit to mother of 1.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.56%, and the company's performance was lower than expected. Considering the continued decline in industry prices, the company's 2024-25 net profit forecast was lowered to 1.959/2.124 billion yuan (originally 3.356/3.643 billion yuan), and the 2026 net profit forecast was added to 2.374 billion yuan, which corresponds to EPS of 0.7/0.76/0.85 yuan. Considering the decline in the overall valuation level of the industry, referring to similar companies, the company was valued 15 times PE in 2024, and the company's target price was lowered to 10.5 yuan (originally 12.74 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
Ferrosilicon has a cost advantage, and the company's cash flow is steady. Producing 1 ton of ferrosilicon requires 8,000-8,400kwh of electricity. Electricity costs account for 60-70% of ferrosilicon production costs. The company produces its own coal and has its own power plant. Electricity costs are lower than the industry average, and ferrosilicon production costs are leading the industry. Benefiting from the company's energy cost advantage, the cost of chemical products such as PVC and caustic soda also has advantages. In the first half of 2024, the company's net operating cash flow was 1.211 billion, and the company's cash flow remained steady in the bottom region of the industry.
The ferrosilicon industry is in the bottom zone, and ferrosilicon prices are dragging down the company's profits. In the first half of 2024, the ferrosilicon market declined and then rose, and fluctuated greatly. Most of the demand for ferrosilicon is steel. Affected by the decline in profits in the steel industry, the price of ferrosilicon declined compared to 2023, which dragged down the company's profit in the first half of the year. From an industry perspective, when ferrosilicon prices are low, the industry generally loses money, capacity utilization is low, the industry is in the bottom zone, and there is limited room for continued decline.
Continued repurchases are compounded by a high percentage of dividends, and the company's investment value is highlighted. The company announced on July 5 that the controlling shareholders agreed to increase their holdings of the company's B shares by no less than 30 million US dollars and not more than 35 million US dollars. The company has continued to increase its shareholding in recent years, showing confidence in its own development. The company's dividend ratio in 2023 was 77.11%, up 34.87 percentage points from 2022. The company's cash flow is steady, and repurchases combined with a high dividend ratio highlight the company's value.
Risk warning: The price of ferrosilicon continues to fall, and the price of coal has dropped sharply.
