Original title: the end of years of rapid growth? The US shale oil industry "hit the brakes" because of this incident.
Foreign media reported on January 5 that US oil production growth will slow sharply this year, and production in the world's largest oil producer is likely to stabilize, suggesting that the active shale oil industry will usher in a new era of self-restraint.
According to Reuters on January 2, spending cuts and production declines in US shale wells mean that US oil production growth is expected to slow compared with 2019. In 2019, domestic oil production in the United States is more than 13 million barrels per day. Some analysts expect production growth to slow to just 100000 barrels a day in 2020.
Reported that in the past 10 years, the shale oil revolution prompted the United States to become the world's leading crude oil producer and energy exporter. But the revolution did not push up share prices. The s & p 500 energy sector has risen a mere 6% over the past decade, far less than the 180% return of the stock market as a whole.
Investors were disappointed that the decade-long expansion of the oil industry did not boost profits. The profits of the shale industry were squeezed when the price of crude oil in the United States fell below $30 a barrel when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries launched a price war in 2014.
Production slowed temporarily, but as many companies cut costs and increased efficiency, the industry accelerated in the final stages of the decade. Now, as investors become pessimistic, even if oil prices rise, the shale industry no longer believes that oil production is guaranteed to be profitable.
"the drumbeat of investors has always been loud and uniform." Parsley Energy CEO Matt Gallagher said. He said that the company's spending will be reduced by about 15% next year, and even if the oil price rises, the company will not increase its spending, but will pay down its debt with a higher return.
According to the report, analysts currently expect the average price of US crude oil to be about $58 a barrel in 2020, which is slightly lower than the current oil price. But analysts point out that due to the pressure of return on investment, even if oil prices remain above $60 in 2020, it will not stimulate another wave of production eruptions.
"We think [rapid growth] is almost over." Said Raoul LeBron, energy analyst at IHS Markett in the UK. Because oil output from shale will decline rapidly, operators need to continue to carry out expensive drilling activities to keep production levels stable.
