美股公用事业板块昨日再度上涨，其中 $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU.US)$ 收涨0.47%，报77.04美元，年初至今涨幅达23.64%，推升公共事业板块成为今年以来标普11大板块中表现最好的板块，并优于 $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ 15.21%的年度涨幅。
美国银行股票与量化策略师Savita Subramanian将公用事业行业的评级从“市场权重”(Market Weight)上调至“超配”(Overweight)，认为波动性上升和利率下降将使公用事业股票获得更好的回报，超越科技股的表现。她指出，“与成长型股票相比，更看好高质量与高收益股票。”她还提到，公用事业股票的长期回报与纳斯达克指数表现相当。
全球增长前景、中东紧张局势和美国总统大选等造成全球环境波动性加剧
当前全球环境波动性加剧，对不少市场观察人士来说，全球增长前景、中东紧张局势和美国总统大选等不确定性事件，是市场预期防御性公用事业板块将跑赢大盘的理由。
On the economic front, the US economy added 0.142 million jobs last month, below expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.2%. The private sector added 0.118 million jobs, but the three-month moving average fell below 0.1 million. A team led by Citigroup research analyst Andrew Hollenhorst stated that this is the worst three months for the private sector since 2012, excluding the pandemic period. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has risen by almost one percentage point from its low point. Last Friday, Hollenhorst added in a report that this indicates what was once seen as temporary layoffs have now become the norm. He wrote, 'From various labor market data, it is clear that the job market is cooling down, consistent with the typical pattern on the eve of an economic recession.'
In terms of the Middle East situation, the International Criminal Court is increasingly likely to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gantz, which some believe could hinder the achievement of a ceasefire in the Middle East.
Regarding the US presidential election, today from 9:00 to 10:45 Beijing time, former US President Trump and current Vice President Harris participated in a televised debate for the US election. According to CNN, polls show that 63% of viewers believe Harris defeated Trump in the debate. However, commentators from ABC and The New Yorker magazine have pointed out that neither Harris nor Trump clearly demonstrated their governing policies in this debate, especially on the issues of inflation and cost of living that Americans are most concerned about. Therefore, the situation of the election is not yet clear.
With interest rates falling, utility stocks will become more attractive.
Savita Subramanian also pointed out that with further interest rate cuts, the attractiveness of utility stocks will increase. Current pricing in the futures market indicates a 66% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 18, with a 34% probability of a 50 basis point cut.
By 2025, Bank of America expects the terminal interest rate to drop to 3.25%. In this environment, the dividend yield of utility and real estate stocks will become more attractive to investors due to their inherent inflation-resistant properties. On the other hand, tech stocks may exhibit relative weakness in this scenario, leading Bank of America to maintain an 'underweight' rating on tech stocks.
How to bet on utility sector investment opportunities through ETFs?
Due to potential deviations in stock prices of utility companies from sector performance. If investing based on a bullish sector outlook, consider ETF investment opportunities.
Among them, $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU.US)$ XLU is the largest ETF in the utility sector of the US stock market, mainly tracking the investment results of the SPDR Utility Index. This index represents the utility sector of the S&P 500 Index, and its component stocks include companies in the electricity, natural gas, and water supply industries. The specific holdings of XLU include $NextEra Energy (NEE.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Southern (SO.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Duke Energy (DUK.US)$ Wait, the top ten components account for approximately 59% of the total weight.
In addition to XLU, investors can also pay attention to $Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Ishares U.S. Utilities Etf (IDU.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Fidelity Covington Trust Msci Utils Index Etf (FUTY.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Global X Funds Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development Etf (PAVE.US)$ and utilities ETF.
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Editor/Jeffy
