I definitely don't mean to title the party. As we all know, this rogue regiment has always provided only practical information and never speculated on concepts, let alone the title party. In fact, I want to do a test: how many people can correctly say what the "biggest suspense in the gaming industry in 2020" is?

Considering that the global game industry is too large and classified, let's confine the topic to the Chinese game industry first. Here are a few alternative answers:

A. launch time and performance of LOL mobile games

B. launch time and performance of DNF mobile games

c. Can cloud games upend the game industry?

d. Can byte beat subvert Tencent's (00700) game?

e. Can Bank of China Switch sweep the Chinese market?

If your answer is E, then you must be an idealist. In fact, the Bank of China of PS4 and XBox One went public as early as 2014, but did not trigger even the slightest fashion trend. In December 2019, only 13000 copies of the top-selling games in PS4 China (both physical and digital) were sold. To expect console games to sweep the Chinese market, it is better to expect the capitalists' conscience to stop preaching 996.

If your answer is D, then you probably know a little about the gaming industry, but not very well. There is still a slight possibility that this will happen in the long run, but it can be said to be impossible in the short term. Of course, if you just want to find a reason to short Tencent's stock price, I didn't say it.

If your answer is C, there is no doubt that you have been fooled-in 2020, none of the things you are looking forward to, such as the popularity of 5G, the acceleration of backbone networks, the background access of all kinds of devices, and the generation of native content on cloud game platforms, will be realized. 2022 is a more reasonable point in time. I mean, it makes more sense for Europe and the United States; China will probably have to wait.

The correct answer is to choose between An and B. Obviously, in an era when the "end-to-end" dividend is running out, LOL and DNF are one of the few popular PC games that have not yet been adapted into mobile games (strictly speaking, DNF has been adapted, but has not caused any reaction).

Three delusions in the gaming industry:

LOL has been hit hard by "Arena of Valor" and is almost over.

DNF players have grown up / changed sex / abandoned the pit, and it's almost over.

"Arena of Valor" was hit by chicken eating / self-moving, and it's almost over.

In fact, the above three delusions have been realized briefly: in 2017, LOL was really washed down by "Arena of Valor", and the impact lasted until the end of 2018 when IG won the championship; in 2018, "Arena of Valor" was indeed hit by Chicken Dinner, but the short-lived impact only lasted until February 2019; in 2019, DNF did experience a sharp decline in player popularity and running water due to various reasons. So when will this decline end?

Entering 2019, there are some problems with the strong operation on which DNF depends for survival. According to experienced players, the game seems to have entered the "final harvest"-feeling that they don't have much time left, so it's better to have a good time and leave with the most money. No matter whether the operator (that is, Tencent) wants to "finally harvest" or not, it is also a fact that DNF has fallen into disappointment after the vigorous 10th anniversary of the national service. Most PC games will inevitably decline after 11 years of continuous operation; there are exceptions, such as NetEase, Inc's "Fantasy Journey to the West computer version" next door, but the exceptions are very few.

By contrast, the days of LOL in 2019 are good: the national chicken blood effect brought about by the victory of IG, the transformation of e-sports 's mechanism, and the launch of self-move mode. It seems to bring it into another spring. If our estimates are correct, LOL's revenue in China in 2018 may have fallen by as much as 1x3-1 in 2018 compared with the same period last year, but in 2019 it has almost completely recovered its lost territory and returned to the high level in 2017. Of course, the performance of "Arena of Valor" in 2019 is also very eye-catching, which also disappointed the majority of Hong Kong stock "news stream" investors who hated Tencent so much that they covered their short positions one after another.

In 2020, Tencent and NetEase, Inc both have several "last PC game IP" to be thrown into the mobile game market-Tencent is DNF and LOL, NetEase, Inc is "Diablo" (and maybe "upstream cold"). However, for Tencent and the entire game market, the significance of DNF mobile games and LOL mobile games is not at all the same level:

LOL mobile games are bound to be very much like "Arena of Valor"; from the closed test version, it is destined to greatly reduce the difficulty in order to attract mainstream players. The final LOL mobile game is likely to be "a new" Arena of Valor "with LOL IP. Why do players need the second "Arena of Valor"? are the fans of LOL enough to push it into the top three of the best-selling mobile games? Of course, overseas is another thing, because the overseas version of Arena of Valor has never been successful outside Southeast Asia, and LOL mobile games still have a chance.

There is no competition for DNF mobile games. MMOACT play, PVE-based combat mode, emphasis on rubbing operation, straightforward brushing, inheritance of the tradition of arcade fighting. The combination of the above elements has never appeared on the mobile side. If you have to find the right mark, the Valley of the Dragon is a bit like it, but it is 3D rather than 2D. Tencent also does not have a studio can copy the essence of DNF, so as to come up with an independent IP DNF. If DNF mobile games are online, it is likely to become a pure increment of the mobile game market, at least without overcrowding other products.

Now we can finally answer the question at the beginning-the answer can only be B. Considering the huge expectations of DNF players and the huge amount of water that may break out once it is launched, we can fully believe that the launch of DNF mobile games will become the most important event in China and even the global industry in 2020, and can even determine the growth rate of the whole industry on its own.

Most of the players in DNF PC games are post-90s. It is difficult to understand the influence of this game if it is not the people of the post-90s, or those who have never been in Internet cafes. DNF is sometimes called "the legend of the post-90s generation". It is not as Krypton as legends, but it is more fun than legends. If you have to find the biggest advantage for DNF, it is fun.

In the initial stage of the launch of DNF national service, Tencent's experience in game operation is not rich enough to maintain the stability of the server. As a result, DNF got a nickname: "offline City and the Warrior of the weak". As for conducting activities, offering discounts, quality customer service, and pulling back. These operational bright spots also did not exist in the early days. In those days, playing DNF meant you had to put up with easily offline servers, better customer service than nothing, and very weak preferential policies. You can also choose not to play, but you will never find another game that is so fun.

Yes, the most important thing in the game is gameplay, that is, fun; just like the most important thing in a movie is to look good, and the most important thing about food is delicious. If you are a post-80s generation, you can recall the sleepless night when you had a full-body MF in Diablo 2-DNF was like this. Later, Tencent slowly improved the operation, so that DNF has become recognized as one of the best PC games, which is like a hooligan can martial arts, no one can stop. When you go home for the Spring Festival, you can investigate the local Internet cafes: even in the case of "eating Chicken" sweeping the world, I'm sure DNF will still be one of the three most popular games in Internet cafes in any region.

At the beginning of 2019, DNF started the channel reservation, and at the end of 2019, it started the Xinyue Club reservation. The so-called "Heart Club" is an organization specially set up by Tencent for large / medium R players, which enjoys many privileges. The recharge of the Heart Club does not go through any channels, of course, it does not affect the ranking of the best-seller list. The reservation of Xinyue member enjoys more discount than that of ordinary players, and since Xinyue has started to make an appointment, it should not be far from the time to go online, right?

If this is an ordinary game, or a good middle-class game, then it really should not be far away. However, this is DNF. It is probably the most important PC game in the Chinese market in the past decade (none), growing up with at least 10 million people. If the DNF mobile game fails to top the best-seller list, and if it fails to surpass the achievement of "chicken eating" (not to mention whether it can surpass "Arena of Valor" or not), then Tencent will be greatly disappointed, and Tencent's competitors will see huge opportunities. The "full mark line" of general games is likely to reach the "pass line" of DNF mobile games.

For DNF mobile games, what on earth should be achieved in order not to be disappointed? The head of this strange pirate regiment does not know Tencent's internal KPI (nor does he want to pretend to know it). However, to me, if its peak flow cannot exceed 1.5 billion yuan and cannot stay above the 1.5 billion yuan level for at least half a year, it will be a failure; the peak flow had better exceed 2 billion yuan, and it is best to stay at this level for more than a year. In addition, DNF mobile games must also leave enough room for secondary cash-imagine how many mobile games have been launched by Legend? fantasy Journey to the West has also launched a second mobile game. I wouldn't be surprised if there are 2-3 DNF or derivative mobile games in the next five years.

Therefore, the internal test of DNF mobile games will not be online if it does not achieve the highest level-- super six-star data. Version number is not a problem, internal test data is. As long as there is room for improvement, as long as there is the possibility of significantly increasing the retention rate, Tencent will absolutely press it not to go online. On the other hand, the internal test data of LOL mobile games do not have to be very good-looking, almost on the line, after all, no one expects it to replace "Arena of Valor". For LOL mobile games, internal testing in overseas markets such as Europe and the United States is more important.

If nothing happens, LOL mobile games are likely to be fully launched before the 2020 summer vacation (most likely around June); even if the domestic version number encounters a bottleneck, overseas will probably be launched in time for the summer vacation. The launch of DNF mobile games is a highly uncertain factor-no one knows whether the data from the next internal test will satisfy Tencent or whether the DNF PC games will be pulled back during the winter vacation in 2020. Tencent certainly hopes to catch up with the summer vacation, but if necessary, he can sacrifice another half a year.

What is certain is that all competitors, especially the publishers of MMO products, will hold their breath and wait for that moment. There is no direct competition for DNF, but no one wants to run into it head-on. If we can know the specific public test date of DNF mobile games now, then all MMO products, big DAU products or slightly similar products in style play need to be staggered with them for at least 2 weeks.

However, there is also a possibility: DNF mobile games may really be a squib, DNF may really be out of date, in the mobile game market can only reach a medium-to-high level of MMO at most. That would really break everyone's glasses, and it would mean the end of the whole logic of "changing hands".

Otherwise, how can it be called suspense? The greatest charm of the Internet industry lies in change and uncertainty, and you never know whether you are a winner or a loser until the last minute. Of course, the working people can always work miracles.