煤价下行带动煤电板块业绩改善，利润率同样处于行业领先水平。公司2024 年上半年火电发电量同比增长3.4%，标煤单价同比下降10.6%，单位燃料成本同比下降10.7%。综合影响下，公司上半年火电核心利润为27.15 亿港元（不含少数股东损益），同比增长274%，绝对值增量接近20 亿港元，主要受益于公司存量火电机组地理布局较好。公司火电机组重点围绕长三角、珠三角、京津冀地区，沿海沿江和铁路干线建设，绝大部分机组位于经济发达或供需紧张省份，在过去几年的压力测试中表现出了远高于同行的盈利能力，2023 年以来盈利修复领先行业，预计随着未来煤价下行进入合理区间，公司煤电板块有望进一步释放业绩弹性。Event: The company announces 2024 interim results. Profit attributable to equity holders of the company in the first half of the year was HK$9.363 billion, up 38.91% year on year; core profit attributable to equity holders was HK$8.271 billion, up 23.81% year on year.
Poor wind conditions dragged down NEV performance, but NEV electricity price stability exceeded expectations. The company added 0.50 GW of wind power and 1.56 GW of installed capacity in the first half of the year. By the end of June 2024, the company's wind power had an installed capacity of 19.12 GW and 7.53 GW under construction; the installed capacity of PV power in operation was 5 GW, and 8.01 GW was under construction. In the first half of 2024, sales of wind power and photovoltaics increased by 6.9% and 204.9%, respectively. Among them, the number of hours used by wind power was 1,223 hours, a decrease of 129 hours over the previous year. The increase in wind power generation mainly benefited from the installation and commissioning of wind power generation in the second half of 2023.
In terms of electricity prices, benefiting from factors such as the better electricity supply and demand pattern in the region where the company's units are located, the company's average feed-in electricity price without tax fell 1.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the stability of electricity prices was far better than the industry average. Considering that electricity prices for new affordable projects are lower, excluding structural factors, it is expected that electricity prices for the company's stock projects will remain stable. The company's renewable energy sector achieved core profit of HK$5.556 billion in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.68%. The stability of performance was also better than the average of the green power industry, reflecting the company's good governance capabilities.
The decline in coal prices has led to an improvement in the performance of the coal and electricity sector, and profit margins are also at the leading level in the industry. The company's thermal power generation in the first half of 2024 increased by 3.4% year on year, the unit price of standard coal decreased by 10.6% year on year, and the unit fuel cost decreased by 10.7% year on year. Under the combined influence, the company's core profit for thermal power in the first half of the year was HK$2.715 billion (excluding minority shareholders' profit and loss), an increase of 274% over the previous year. The absolute value increase was close to HK$2 billion, mainly benefiting from the good geographical layout of the company's existing thermal power units. The company's thermal power plants focus on the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, coastal riverside and railway trunk line construction. The vast majority of the units are located in economically developed or tight supply and demand provinces. They have shown far higher profitability than their peers in stress tests over the past few years. It is expected that as future coal prices fall into a reasonable range, the company's coal power sector is expected to further unleash performance flexibility.
The goal of clean installed equipment transformation is progressing steadily, and it is planned to add 10 GW of new energy installed capacity in 2024. In 2020, the company proposed adding 40GW of new energy installations in the 14th five years, and the goal of clean installation transformation is firm. The company plans to spend HK$59.9 billion in 2024, of which HK$44.6 billion will be used for wind power and photovoltaic power plant construction. The interim report once again emphasized that it plans to add a total of 10 GW of new energy installed capacity in 2024. At present, the company's clean transformation is progressing steadily. The installed yield of green power units is in the first tier of power central enterprises. With strong market-based genes, the yield is expected to be guaranteed.
Profit forecast and rating: Based on the company's interim report performance, we maintain a forecast of the company's 2024-2026 net profit of HK$142.2, 160.6 and HK$18.28 billion, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 7, 6, and 5 times, respectively. Based on the company's continued strong performance and clean transformation efforts, we maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) Fluctuations in coal prices; 2) changes in subsidy policies; 3) intensification of industry competition.
