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周评:美伊冲突引市场恐慌 下周关注美非农就业报告

Weekly Review: the conflict between the United States and Iraq causes market panic next week to pay attention to the US non-farm payrolls report

新浪财经 ·  Jan 4, 2020 17:00
Clue Clues | Rational investment 

The three major indexes of U. S. stocks have been mixed this week.Dow.DJI) fell by 0.04%, ending three consecutive weeks of gainsS & P 500 index.INX) fell 0.16%, ending five consecutive weeks of gainsNano-finger.IXIC) rose 0.16%, extending the previous three consecutive weeks of gains.

Global stock markets (ACWI) generally fell. Priced in US dollarsFTSE emerging Markets Index ETFVWO) fell 0.69% in the week, falling for two consecutive weeks. Non-American developed marketsMSCI Euro area ETFEZU) fell 0.43%, ending five consecutive weeks of gains.MSCI UK ETFEWU)跌0.47%。MSCI Japan ETFEWJ) fell 0.64%, falling for three consecutive weeks.

Shanghai and Shenzhen stock marketsPrev index000001) it closed at 3083.79 on Friday, up 2.62% this week.Rose for five consecutive weeksGem Index399006) a weekly increase of 3.87%.

The people's Bank of China announced on January 1, 2020 that in order to support the development of the real economy and reduce the actual cost of social financing, the people's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto financing companies) on January 6, 2020.

The person in charge of the central bank saidThis is an across-the-board reduction.The release of long-term funds of more than 800 billion yuan.

Wen Bin, Chief researcher of China Minsheng Banking Corp, ChinaExpressIn January this year, 600 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired one after another, superimposed by the payment of taxes, the issuance of local government special bonds, the demand for cash during the Spring Festival, and other factors, resulting in pressure on liquidity. The 800 billion yuan of funds released by lowering the reserve requirement can meet the above liquidity needs.

Hang Seng IndexIt closed at 28,432 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.8%.Rose for five consecutive weeks. The Japanese stock market will be closed for six days on Tuesday.

Foreign exchange marketDollar indexDXY) it closed at 96.9 on Friday, down 0.13% for the week. Other major currenciesSterlingAgainst the dollar (GBP/USD) rose 0.11% a week.EuroAgainst the dollar (EUR/USD) fell by 0.16%.

Us 10-year Treasury bondThe yield closed at 1.8% on Friday, a weekly drop of 8BP (0.08%). The 2-year Treasury yield that implied market expectations for short-term interest rates closed at 1.53%.

At 3 a.m. on January 4, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December 2019 meeting.

The minutes show that in the absence of substantive changes, members of the Open Market Committee (FOMC)Agree to stay put "temporarily"It is considered appropriate to maintain current interest rates for some time. But there are also concerns that inflation will remain below 2%.

According to the minutes, participants expected a significant decline in indicators of recession risk in the US, with continued expansion of economic activity, strong labour market environment and inflation approaching 2 per cent as the most likely outcome. This prospect at least partly supports the current monetary policy stance. However, changes in the global situation related to uncertainty in international trade and weakness in overseas economies still pose some risks to the outlook, and upward inflationary pressure remains weak.

The FOMC worried at its December meeting that keeping benchmark interest rates low could encourage excessive risk-taking in financial markets, according to the minutes. If risk-taking causes financial markets to become unstable, such low interest rates "could make the next recession worse". In the absence of substantial change, interest rates are likely to remain unchanged for the time being. Policymakers are preparing to discuss changing the way they manage liquidity in financial markets, including possible long-term repo instruments.

According to the Fed Watch tool of the Zhishang Institute, after the release of the minutes, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is still 0%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March dropped from 12.8% to 4.1%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in January rose from 3.9% to 7.2%. The probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in March rose from 3.4% to 6.9%.

COMEXFuture goldGC) the main contract closed at US $1555.2 / oz on Friday, up 2.44% a week.XAU) surged to a four-month high on Friday, breaking the key $1550 an ounce mark. The move comes after US airstrikes in Iraq killed the commander of Iran's elite Quds brigade, prompting investors to flock to safe havens.

On Friday, international benchmark ICE Brent crude oil futures (OIL) the main contract closed at $68.70, up 2.74% a week; NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (CLThe main contract closed at $63.04, up 2.14% a week. All of these contracts have risen for five consecutive weeks.

In the early morning of January 3 local time, Iraqi Baghdad International Airport was hit by US military rockets, killing many people, including senior Iranian military general Suleimani. The sudden news caused international oil prices to soar by nearly 5% at one point.

Wall Street's "panic index"-the Cboe S & P 500 volatility index (VIX)(VXX) at one point above 16 on Friday, reflecting the US stock marketThe tension has risen somewhat.. 19 is the long-term average of the index.

U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 11.463 million barrels to 429.9 million barrels last week, far exceeding market expectations of a reduction of 3.27 million barrels, according to a report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Friday.

Oil service company Baker Hughes (BHGEAccording to data released this week, the number of active oil drilling in the United States fell by seven to 670 this week, the second consecutive week of decline. And 2019 recorded the first annual decline since 2016.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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