贷款增长稳健，落实“五篇大文章”战略。24Q2 贷款同比+4.0%。公司积极落实“五篇大文章”等国家战略导向，持续优化授信结构。绿色金融方面，绿色信贷余额5293 亿元，较23 年末增长15.31%。涉农贷款余额6086 亿元，较23 年末增长10.51%。制造业贷款余额5252 亿元，较23 年末增长5%。此外，科创金融贷款、普惠金融等重点领域贷款增速也均高于贷款总体增速。Key investment points: China CITIC Bank's operating performance is stable, net interest spreads have steadily rebounded, asset quality has remained stable, and we maintain a “superior to the market” rating.
Net interest spreads have rebounded steadily, and the medium-term dividend ratio has increased. China CITIC Bank's 24Q2 revenue was +0.8% YoY, and net profit to mother was -3.7% YoY. 24H1 revenue +2.7% YoY, net profit to mother -1.6% YoY. The company's net interest spread for caliber 24H1 was 1.77%, up 7 bps from 1.70% in 24Q1. We estimate 24Q2's net interest spread for a single quarter of 1.72%, up 12 bps from 1.60% in 24Q1. Among them, the estimated interest-bearing debt cost ratio decreased by 15 bps to 2.01% month-on-month, and debt cost control achieved results. The yield on interest-bearing assets fell only 2 bps to 3.60% month-on-month. The company plans to pay an interim dividend of 0.1,847 yuan per share (tax included), with an interim dividend ratio of 27.82%, up from the 2023 dividend ratio (26.01%).
Asset quality is stable. The 24Q2 defect rate increased slightly by 1 bp to 1.19% month-on-month, and the provision coverage rate decreased slightly by 1.03 pct to 206.76% month-on-month, and overall risk resilience was sufficient. The non-performing loan ratio for public loans in 24Q2 was 1.25%, down 12 bps from the end of '23. The company accelerated risk mitigation and disposal, and strengthened risk monitoring and management in key industries such as real estate. The real estate loan non-performing rate decreased by 29 bps to 2.30% compared to the end of 23.
Loan growth is steady, and the “five big articles” strategy has been implemented. 24Q2 loans were +4.0% YoY. The company actively implements national strategic guidelines such as the “Five Major Articles” and continuously optimizes the credit granting structure. In terms of green finance, the green credit balance was $529.3 billion, up 15.31% from the end of '23. The balance of agricultural loans was $608.6 billion, up 10.51% from the end of '23. The manufacturing loan balance was $525.2 billion, up 5% from the end of '23. Furthermore, the growth rate of loans in key areas such as science and innovation finance loans and inclusive finance is also higher than the overall growth rate of loans.
Investment advice. We forecast EPS of 1.23, 1.32, and 1.41 yuan in 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 3.63%, 7.12%, and 6.62%. We obtained a reasonable value of 6.78 yuan based on the DDM model (see Table 2); according to the PB-ROE model, the 2024E PB valuation was 0.55 times (0.46 times that of a comparable company), and the corresponding reasonable value was 6.71 yuan. Therefore, the reasonable value range is 6.71-6.78 yuan (corresponding to 2024 PE is 5.47-5.53 times, corresponding PE is 4.81 times for peer companies), maintaining the “superior to market” rating.
Risk warning: The solvency of enterprises has declined, asset quality has deteriorated dramatically; financial supervision policies have undergone major changes.
