Hanami's voice of good morning

Market Overview

Before the US presidential election debate, the Dow and small-cap stocks closed down, and the S&P and NASDAQ rose in the afternoon, rising for two consecutive days. The chip index rose more than 1%, and the bank stock index fell 3.6% at one point. Oracle rose more than 11% to record highs, Tesla rose 4.6%, and Apple closed down 0.4% after falling 1.9%. J.P. Morgan once fell 7.5%, the worst in four years. Alibaba's US stock rose nearly 3%. BMW shares in Europe fell more than 11%.

On the eve of the US CPI announcement on Wednesday, the bond market expected inflation to fall below the Federal Reserve's target and demand for short-term bonds was strong, and US bond yields fell. The two-year US Treasury yield once fell by more than 7 basis points and fell to 3.60%, returning to a two-year low. The 10-year bond yield fell the deepest 6 basis points to its lowest level since June last year, and the yield curve ended inversion for three consecutive days.

The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday, and the euro hit a new low for another three weeks. The yen is once again approaching a high level in recent years. The offshore RMB fell 150 points to 7.13 yuan. Bitcoin rose nearly 2% to $0.058 million.

OPEC lowered oil demand expectations once again, compounded by strong Wall Street's bearishness. Oil prices plummeted to their lowest level in nearly three years, US oil plummeted 5% in the intraday market, and the oil supply fell below $70. Spot gold rose above $2,510 for two consecutive days. Black futures generally declined in night trading.

During the Asian session, the three major A-share indices closed higher, the Huawei industrial chain soared in the afternoon, and treasury bond futures rose collectively.

Key news

The bill on implementing a draft decision to gradually delay the legal retirement age was submitted to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for consideration.

China's exports increased by 8.7% in August, import growth slowed to 0.5%, and the trade surplus widened; soybean imports reached a record high, integrated circuits surged year-on-year, crude oil, iron ore, and copper declined, and steel plummeted by more than 20%.

The Huawei Mate XT starts at 19999 yuan, and the stocking volume is about 1 million units. “If you fold it in three and unfold it, the Xiaohongshu becomes the Big Red Book”. The five-seat version of the M9 was released, and the Huawei ADS 3.0 was upgraded, starting at 0.4698 million yuan. Yu Chengdong: Zhijie R7 opens small orders, with a pre-sale price starting at 0.268 million yuan.

On Tuesday, September 10, at 9 p.m. EST, current US Vice President Harris will have his first televised debate with Republican candidate Trump.

Wall Street Review Apple Press Conference: Large-scale switching will wait until the iPhone 17. Early supply chain feedback will determine the “life or death” of this round of sales. Apple lost a multi-year legal battle with the European Union and was ordered to pay $14.4 billion in taxes to Ireland.

OpenAI's “strawberry” model, which focuses on inference, may be released within two weeks, and is the next major breakthrough in artificial intelligence.

The US oil market plummeted by about 5% to a new low of nearly three years. OPEC once again lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next two years. Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs, Damo, Citibank, and HSBC are strongly bearish, and even long-term bullish Tock Group has given rare warnings.

Market Closing Report

US stocks: The Dow fell 0.23%, the S&P 500 rose 0.45%, and the NASDAQ rose 0.84%.

European stocks: The European STOXX 600 Index closed down 0.54%. Germany's DAX 30 index closed down 0.96%. France's CAC 40 closed down 0.24%. The UK FTSE 100 closed down 0.78%.

A-shares: The Shanghai Index rose 0.28%, the Shenzhen Index rose 0.13%, and the GEM Index rose 0.06%.

Bond market: The yield on the US 10-year benchmark treasury bond fell 5.63 basis points to 3.6442%. The two-year US Treasury yield fell 6.43 basis points to 3.6044%.

Commodities: WTI crude oil futures for October closed down $2.96, or 4.31%, to $65.75 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for October closed down $2.65, down 3.69%, to $69.19 per barrel. COMEX gold futures rose 0.52% to $2545.90 per ounce. Luntong and Lunxi closed down about 0.8%, while Lunnickel fell more than 1%.

News details

Global heavyweight

The bill on implementing a draft decision to gradually delay the legal retirement age was submitted to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for consideration. The meeting reviewed the State Council's bill to submit for consideration a draft decision on implementing a gradual delay in the legal retirement age. Commissioned by the State Council, Wang Xiaoping, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, gave an explanation.

• Expert interpretation: Why delay retirement? What are the changes in the degree of population aging in our country? According to CCTV news, Guan Bo, deputy director of the Social Strategy Planning Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said that the current population aging has become the most basic national situation, and in the context of high population quality, there is an urgent need to further unleash the potential of society's labor factor resources and push overall total factor productivity to a more appropriate level.

China's exports increased by 8.7% in August, import growth slowed to 0.5%, and the trade surplus widened; soybean imports reached a record high, integrated circuits surged year-on-year, crude oil, iron ore, and copper declined, and steel plummeted by more than 20%

• Compared with the previous value, China's exports grew strongly by 1.7 percentage points year on year in August, but the import growth rate fell 6.7 percentage points, and the trade surplus for the month was 91.02 billion US dollars.

• From January to August, imports of iron ore, coal and natural gas increased, and crude oil imports decreased. In August, soybean imports reached a record high; imports of refined oil products and integrated circuits rose sharply; imports of iron ore both fell month-on-month; imports of unwrought copper and copper fell 12.3% year on year to a 16-month low; steel imports plummeted by more than 20% year on year.

• Guo Lei of Guangfa Macro said that exports continue to be biased, and the structural inclination towards high-end manufacturing is quite obvious, but the weak domestic demand situation has not changed. Looking back, the implementation of a “batch of incremental policies” is the key to breaking the current state of affairs. There is further room in areas such as downgrading, adding new credit, cutting interest rates, adjusting interest rates on existing mortgages, first-tier real estate policies, and storage policies.

The Huawei Mate XT starts at 19999 yuan, and the stocking volume is about 1 million units. “If you fold it in three and unfold it, the Xiaohongshu becomes the Big Red Book”. The five-seat version of the M9 was released, and the Huawei ADS 3.0 was upgraded, starting at 0.4698 million yuan. Yu Chengdong: Zhijie R7 opens small orders, with a pre-sale price starting at 0.268 million yuan.

• The 256GB version costs 19999 yuan, the 512GB version costs 21999 yuan, and the 1TB version costs 23,999 yuan. The Huawei Mate XT has about 1 million units in stock. Netizens: The three-fold phone “feels like the emperor criticizes and reverses”. Yu Chengdong said that the Zhijie R7 will start small orders. The pre-sale price starts at 0.268 million yuan, and the Zhijie R7 will compete for the Model Y across levels by surpassing the Model X specifications.

On Tuesday, September 10, at 9 p.m. EST, current US Vice President Harris will have his first televised debate with Republican candidate Trump.

• The latest poll results show that the approval ratings of the candidates from the two parties are still not consistent. The Financial Times analyzed that as far as the debate is concerned, Harris is undoubtedly facing greater pressure than Trump.

• The focus of stock remittance and debt includes: the stock market is concerned about tax and tariff plans; the bond market is concerned about fiscal plans; the foreign exchange market looks at Trump's tariff remarks, and whether it involves pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more actively. During the debate, if Bitcoin rises, the audience thought that Trump, who publicly supported the coin community, performed better.

Wall Street Review Apple Press Conference: Large-scale switching will wait until the iPhone 17. Early supply chain feedback will determine the “life or death” of this round of sales. Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest research report that the iPhone 16 series did not have any surprises from pricing, large-scale promotions, or AI features. J.P. Morgan said that in the short term, Apple Intelligence will not help iPhone 16 sales much. With the upgrading of AI features, the iPhone 17 series will sell better, and it may trigger a new wave of Apple's “switching waves.”

Apple lost a multi-year legal battle with the European Union and was ordered to pay $14.4 billion in taxes to Ireland. In 2016, the EU competition commissioner accused Ireland of providing illegal tax benefits to Apple, causing investment to be unfairly transferred from other countries to Ireland.

OpenAI's “strawberry” model, which focuses on inference, may be released within two weeks, and is the next major breakthrough in artificial intelligence. Earlier rumors claimed that the fall release of “Strawberry” could solve complex problems and tasks beyond the capabilities of current artificial intelligence models, or represent a solid step towards general artificial intelligence (AGI) for humans. However, the exact form of delivery and pricing are uncertain, and there have been reports that OpenAI plans to increase the price by 100 times.

The US oil market plummeted by about 5% to a new low of nearly three years. OPEC once again lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next two years. Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs, Damo, Citibank, and HSBC are strongly bearish, and even long-term bullish Tock Group has given rare warnings.

• Both US oil and oil hit their lowest levels since December 2021, and Brent crude oil fell below the $70 mark. Adequate supply in the crude oil market, demand concerns, and speculative short selling are rampant, all causing oil prices to plummet in this round.

• OPEC predicts that global oil demand will grow by 2.03 million b/d this year and 1.74 million b/d in 2025, lower than the previous forecast of 2.11 million b/d and 1.78 million b/d.

• Wall Street Investment Bank believes that there will be a serious oversupply of crude oil in 2025, and oil prices may drop to the level of 60 US dollars at that time. OPEC+ agreed to suspend production increases or to support oil prices for a short time, but bears now dominate, and the rebound in oil prices is weak.

Domestic macro

Ministry of Commerce: The situation in the electric vehicle countervailing case is complicated, and China is committed to properly resolving it through dialogue and consultation with the European side. On September 9, Vice Minister of Commerce Li Fei and his entourage held talks with European Commission Trade Director General Wayne, and once again expressed to the European side their desire for dialogue and consultation to properly resolve economic and trade frictions between China and Europe and reasonably accommodate each other's concerns.

“24 Renewal Special Treasury Bonds 01” appeared in the bond trading market for 4 consecutive trading days. What signals did the Central Bank of China send when entering the market to sell long-term bonds? Analysts believe that the central bank has been selling 24 consecutive special treasury bonds 01 through primary market traders for many days, indicating that the central bank has continued to buy and sell for a long time since August. On the one hand, it has guided a gradual and reasonable recovery in long-term treasury bond yields, and on the other hand, it has driven the yield curve on long-term and short-term treasury bonds to become steeper, preventing the yield curve on long-term and short-term treasury bonds from being too flat, causing the financial market to worry about economic recovery.

Gao Shanwen: Real estate is undergoing three major adjustments; consumer activity should be the ultimate goal of all economic activity. The ultimate goal of all economic activity is to give people and consumers a better life. People's desire for a better life, and driven by consumer activity, is the ultimate force of economic activity.

Domestic companies

Ma Yun said on the intranet: Ali is not a protected company; he believes in the power of the market. Ma Yun said that many of Ali's businesses are facing challenges and being surpassed. “This is to be expected, because no company can always maintain first place in any field, and only competition can make itself stronger and the industry healthier. What's more, Ali has never been a protected company. Ali believes in the strength of the market and the value of innovation.”

TSMC's sales in August surged 33% year over year, and iPhone 16 orders may boost performance to the next level. Benefiting from strong demand for AI and smartphones, TSMC's sales increased to NT$250.866 billion in August. The report said that the increase in chip orders for the Apple iPhone 16 will drive TSMC's 3nm process revenue to increase sharply by more than 30%.

Overseas macro

American small business optimism declined the most in more than two years, and companies became more pessimistic about sales and economic prospects.

The US Treasury sells three-year treasury bonds. Demand is strong, and key indicators have reached record highs. The US Treasury auctioned off 58 billion US dollars of three-year treasury bonds. The bid interest rate was 3.440%, a new low since August 2022. The percentage of indirect bidders to measure overseas demand was 78.2%, a record high. “Succession Man”. The allocation ratio for Tier 1 traders was 10.5%, the second-lowest in a record, which also indicates strong real demand.

US stock bear Wilson: If the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts interest rates, the yen arbitrage position will close or make a comeback. Michael Wilson, the biggest US stock bear on Wall Street, pointed out that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by more than 25 basis points, the yen may appreciate, making dollar assets unattractive. This will cause the global stock market crash in early August to occur again, and US technology stocks will further be put under pressure.

Europe cuts interest rates, and Damo expects the euro to fall by 7%, which is not far from being parity with the US dollar. Dama expects the euro will depreciate to 1.02 US dollars by the end of this year as the ECB increases its efforts to cut interest rates to cope with the recession, and the US election in November may boost the dollar.

Thirty years of Japan's monetary policy: interest rate cut to zero interest rate - QE - negative interest rate, quantitative regulation switched to price type. Zhongtai Securities said that after the mid-1990s, Japan basically completed interest rate marketization reform and established a transmission mechanism from policy interest rates - interbank market interest rates - bond interest rates/loan interest rates. In terms of regulation, it transitioned from quantitative regulation to price regulation, and the trend was to remain relaxed.

Overseas companies

“Polaris Dawn” is launched, and the first commercial spacewalk in human history is imminent. The success of SpaceX and Tesla has also boosted founder Musk's worth. According to reports, the success of SpaceX, especially the upcoming listing of Starlink, may make Musk the world's first trillionaire in 2027.

Goldman Sachs: Nvidia's sell-off “went too far,” and “calculating short-term cost returns is futile” during a period of major technological transformation. Goldman Sachs believes that the focus is on long-term gaming. It is expected that by the second half of 2025, generative artificial intelligence will begin to make substantial contributions to the growth of the industry.

Gambling on OpenAI, Thrive Capital wants to be a tiger fund for the AI era. The amount of capital required for OpenAI is so huge, and Thrive Capital's investment strategy is to “go all out.”

Google lost the EU lawsuit and was fined 2.4 billion euros. Google, which is riddled with antitrust lawsuits, lost the EU's final ruling. The European Court of Justice announced that it upheld the original ruling and fined 2.4 billion euros to punish Google for displaying its own shopping services through high rankings in search engines, while lowering competitors' rankings and abusing monopoly power to crack down on competitors.

J.P. Morgan's intraday dive surpassed 7%, making it the worst day in four years. The president warned Wall Street that expectations were too optimistic. J.P. Morgan Chase President Pinto said that analysts predict that the bank's net interest income (NII) of $89.5 billion next year is unreasonable; in fact, it will be even lower. Two months ago, the bank's own guidance was about 91 billion dollars. The day before Pinto's speech, Goldman Sachs CEO said that trading business revenue is expected to drop 10% in the third quarter.

Dragged down by the braking system recall incident, BMW lowered its annual performance forecast, and European stocks fell by more than 8%.

Industry/Concept

1. Charging piles | According to the latest data from the China Charging Federation, in August 2024, the number of public charging piles increased by 0.054 million compared to the previous month, an increase of 436% over the previous month. Member organizations within the alliance have reported a total of 3.263 million public charging piles, including 1.461 million DC charging piles and 1.801 million AC charging piles. Over the past year, an average of 0.083 million public charging stations were added each month.

Comment: According to the Shanghai Securities Report, on September 10, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a notice on promoting pilot work on large-scale interactive vehicle networks, comprehensively promoting orderly charging of new energy vehicles, expanding the scale of bidirectional charging and discharging (V2G) projects, and enriching vehicle network interactive application scenarios. The research institute said that the current domestic electric vehicle ownership and bicycle charging capacity are gradually increasing, leading to an increase in the utilization rate of single charging piles and an improvement in the profits of charging operators. Considering that the vehicle network integration policy was officially introduced at the beginning of this year, China's V2G development has natural advantages, and the related industrial chain is actively following up.

2. Agricultural machinery | According to the Shanghai Securities Report, three departments including the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently issued the “Supplementary Notice on Increasing Efforts to Continue to Implement the Agricultural Machinery Scrap Renewal Subsidy Policy”, which will expand the scope of scrapping subsidies. On the basis of the 9 types of agricultural machinery stipulated in the previous policy, provinces can determine no more than 6 new types of machinery and tools to be included in the scope of scrapping subsidies on their own. The notice also proposed raising the end-of-life subsidy standard. For example, for scrapping tractors with less than 20 horsepower, the maximum scrapping subsidy amount for a single unit will be raised from 1,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan.

Comment: Dongwu Securities believes that although the agricultural mechanization rate in China has now reached a high level, the agricultural machinery market is flooded with a large number of old and broken agricultural machinery due to the lack of mandatory scrapping mechanisms and poor farmers' willingness to replace it. The replacement policy will push for a new cycle of agricultural machinery replacement. The tractor sector's scrapping and replacement subsidies and declining purchase subsidies go hand in hand, benefiting high-end large-scale products in the long term.

3. Internet of Vehicles | According to the China Securities News, four departments including the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Promoting Pilot Work on the Interactive Application of Vehicle Networks”, which proposes to comprehensively promote orderly charging of new energy vehicles, expand the scale of bidirectional charging and discharging (V2G) projects, enrich interactive application scenarios for vehicle networks, improve large-scale and sustainable vehicle network interaction policy mechanisms with cities as the main body, and use the V2G project as the main body to explore technologically advanced, clear models, and replicable and promoted business models. Chemical development.

Comment: Media reports point out that the so-called vehicle network interaction refers to the intelligent connection and collaborative work between new energy vehicles and the power grid, that is, the use of new energy vehicles as “mobile power banks” to flow energy in both directions with the power grid. This can not only be charged from the grid, but also discharged (V2G) to the grid, enabling the transfer of energy in time and space. At the same time, it is also possible to establish supporting pricing mechanisms and market-based mechanisms to guide NEV users to participate in vehicle network interaction, provide two-way flexible adjustment capabilities for the power system, promote the consumption of new energy sources, and ensure the safe supply of electricity, which is of great practical significance for the construction of new power systems.

4. Commercial aviation | According to China Securities News, the American Space Exploration Technology Company (SpaceX) launched “Polaris Dawn” (Polaris Dawn) on September 10, local time, to carry out the first private spacewalk with four US citizens. The spacecraft mission will carry four passengers from different countries and backgrounds. They will conduct a series of scientific experiments and technical tests in space, and complete a spacewalk mission for the first time under the protection of a spacesuit designed by SpaceX.

Comment: According to media reports, this feat will not only open a new chapter in commercial space exploration, but will also lay a solid foundation for future emerging industries such as space tourism and space resource development. Space technology is fundamentally changing our lives. Applications in fields such as communications, navigation, and remote sensing continue to be deepened, and will be extended to almost all industries, bringing great value to the global economy and society. The World Economic Forum and McKinsey & Company jointly released an in-depth report stating that the global space economy is expected to reach 1.8 trillion US dollars by 2035, becoming an important engine for global economic growth in the next ten years.

5. Carbon fiber | According to CCTV reports, on the morning of September 10, the first batch of carbon fiber heavy-duty railway trucks independently developed by China officially went offline in Qiqihar, Heilongjiang. A total of 6 railway wagons have been rolled off the line this time, and new materials, mainly carbon fiber, were used for the first time. According to information, traditional railway trucks are mainly made of steel and aluminum alloy. The trucks that went offline this time have also integrated and innovated many new technology components. The technical performance and indicators of the vehicles are superior to those of similar cars in North America, and the overall vehicle technology is world-leading.

Comment: Media reports indicate that after being compounded with resin, metal, ceramics, carbon, glass, etc., it has characteristics such as high modulus, high strength, light weight, fatigue resistance, corrosion resistance, etc., and is widely used in aerospace, aviation, military, navigation, chemicals, electronics, construction, sports and leisure fields. In 2021, mainland China surpassed the US for the first time and became the world's largest production capacity country.

6. Optical Communications | According to the Securities Times, the 25th China International Optoelectronic Expo (CIOE China Optical Fair) will open on September 11-13 at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center (Baoan). As the top event for the optoelectronics industry, academicians, experts, scholars, industry leaders and heads of relevant government departments in the field of optoelectronics gathered in Shenzhen. More than 3,700 high-quality companies from more than 30 countries and regions, including international pavilions from the United States, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, etc., will bring the latest optoelectronics achievements and innovative products, and promote international technical exchanges and cooperation through bridges connecting global optoelectronic resources.

Comment: Media reports indicate that at this exhibition, many manufacturers will display products related to 1.6T optical modules. Zhongji Xuchuang will conduct a live demo of 1.6TOSFP 2xDR4; Huagong Zhengyuan will also launch a new 1.6 TOSFPDR8 optical module (DSP and LPO); Guangxun Technology will also release a new generation 1.6T high-end module product - 1.6TOSFP224 DR8. The electrical interface rate will be fully increased to meet the next generation 200GSerDes application scenario. GF Securities pointed out that with the maturity of silicon light technology and the increase in yield of domestic optical module manufacturers, the shipment ratio of silicon optical modules is expected to increase. The penetration rate of silicon optical modules in the 1.6T era will be significantly higher than in the 400G and 800G era.

Today's news preview

US presidential candidate Harris debates with Trump.

US CPI for August.

US EIA crude oil inventories changed last week.

<全文完>