Futures Morning Rush - Audio Edition
Macro highlights
1. According to customs statistics, in the first eight months of 2024, China's total import and export value of goods trade was RMB 28.58 trillion, an increase of 6% over the same period last year (same). The trade surplus rose 13.6% to 4.32 trillion yuan. In US dollars, in the first 8 months, China's total import and export value was 4.02 trillion US dollars, an increase of 3.7%.
2. The notice on work arrangements for the 2024 Mid-Autumn Festival was issued in the previous issue. It was mentioned that from the closing settlement period on September 12, 2024 (Thursday), the rise and fall of hot-rolled coil and stainless steel futures contracts was adjusted to 6%, the margin ratio for hedging transactions was adjusted to 7%, and the margin ratio for speculative transactions was adjusted to 8%. The fluctuation margin for natural rubber and pulp futures contracts was adjusted to 7%, the margin ratio for hedging transactions was adjusted to 8%, and the margin ratio for speculative trading was adjusted to 9%.
3. During the 2024 Mid-Autumn Festival market closure period, the fluctuation and trading margin standards for various types of futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange remained unchanged. All member units are requested to do a good job of alerting customers to risks, strengthen market risk prevention, and ensure the smooth operation of the market.
4. The Canadian government announced on September 10 that it will open a 30-day consultation on potential new tariffs on Chinese products in the fields of batteries and battery components, semiconductors, solar energy products, and key minerals. Stakeholders can provide feedback on potential measures before October 10. Earlier, the Canadian government announced on August 26 that it would impose additional tariffs and other restrictions on electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products imported from China. Prior to that, it also initiated a consultation on opinions.
Changes in the global futures market
1. International oil prices fell across the board. The October contract for US oil fell 3.49% to 66.31 US dollars/barrel; the November contract for oil fell 2.92% to 69.74 US dollars/barrel.
2. COMEX gold futures closed up 0.51% to $2545.7 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures closed up 0.26% to $28.725 per ounce.
3. Most of London's basic metals closed down. LME phase copper fell 0.86% to 9019 US dollars/ton, LME phase zinc fell 0.88% to 2707 US dollars/ton, LME phase nickel fell 1.06% to 15,735 US dollars/ton, LME phase aluminum fell 0.36% to 2,342 US dollars/ton, LME phase tin fell 0.32% to 30720 US dollars/ton, and LME lead rose 0.1% to 1,955 US dollars/ton.
4. The Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) agricultural futures main contract closed with mixed ups and downs. Soybean futures fell 2.04% to 997.25 cents/bushels; corn futures fell 0.8% to 404 cents/bushels; wheat futures rose 0.88% to 573.5 cents/bushels.
5. Domestic futures closed at night. Styrene and staple fiber fell nearly 5%, bottle flakes fell 3.99%, PTA, paraxylene, asphalt, and ethylene glycol fell more than 3%, and crude oil, glass, LPG, soybean, and fuel fell more than 2%. Most basic metals closed down, with Shanghai nickel down 1%, alumina down 0.96%, stainless steel down 0.83%, Shanghai tin 0.65%, Shanghai zinc down 0.48%, and Shanghai copper down 0.47%. Shanghai Gold rose 0.4% and Bank of Shanghai rose 0.03%.
Black hot information
1. According to Mysteel, steel mills in the Hebei market reduced the purchase price of coke by 50/55 yuan/ton on September 10, while mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market reduced the purchase price of coke by 50 yuan/ton for wet quenching and 55 yuan/ton for dry quenching, all of which will be implemented from 0:00 on September 10, 2024.
2. According to Mysteel, Australian mineral development company Gold Valley (Gold Valley) and Australian railway company Arc Infrastructure (hereinafter referred to as Arc) signed a railway transportation agreement for iron ore. Under the agreement, the Golden Valley is expected to transport 1.2 million tons of iron ore each year through the Arc rail network to the iron ore export port Esperance (Esperance).
3. According to Mysteel, Ningxia's two-round circuit maintenance began. Zotye Metallurgy overhauled 2 silicate furnaces at 24:00 on September 9, affecting 180 tons per day, and the maintenance time was 10 days; Yue Xin overhauled 2 silicate furnaces at 24:00 on September 10, affecting 180 tons per day, and the maintenance time was more than 15 days.
4. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's iron ore imports in August were 0.10139 billion tons, compared with 0.10281 billion tons last month and 0.10642 billion tons in the same period in 2023; from January to August 2024, China's iron ore imports were 0.81,495 billion tons, up 5.2% year on year.
5. According to the Nishimoto Shinkansen, on the basis of the “September 2024 Product Price Policy”, Benko will adjust the October 2024 product price policy as follows: Of these, hot rolling was reduced by 250 yuan/ton. Cold rolling reduced by 200 yuan/ton. Electrogalvanizing was reduced by 200 yuan/ton. Unoriented silicon steel was reduced by 200 yuan/ton. The wire was reduced by 200 yuan/ton. Rebar reduced by 200 yuan/ton. Special steel was reduced by 200 yuan/ton.
Hot information on agricultural products
1. According to MPOB data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Authority, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August was 188,3214 tons, up 7.34% month on month; palm oil exports in August were 15,25,115 tons, down 9.74% month on month; palm oil production in August was 18,3859 tons, up 2.87% month on month.
2. According to a report released by the Overseas Agriculture Service (FAS) under the US Department of Agriculture, Brazil's cotton production in 2024/2025 is expected to be a record high of 16.6 million packs (1 pack = 480 pounds) or (3.6 million tons), an increase of 11% compared to the country's 2023/24 cotton output.
3. According to data from the shipping research agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1-10 were 4,48,985 tons, down 4.61% from 4,706 tons exported in the same period last month.
4. According to AmSpec, an independent Malaysian inspection agency, Malaysia exported 412,771 tons of palm oil from September 1 to 10, a decrease of 5.2% from 4,35,413 tons exported in the same period last month.
5. According to Mutian Technology, the price of white sugar from the Xinjiang Group factory is 5,700 to 6150 yuan/ton, and the price of white sugar is 5,950 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 400 yuan/ton in less than a month. As of the end of August, the sugar production and sales rate in Xinjiang was 88.22%, and the industrial inventory was 0.0658 million tons. There are still about 10 days until the first sugar factory in Xinjiang starts pressing during the 2024/2025 season, and the clean-up efforts at reduced prices have not abated.
6. As of September 9, 2024, the total cotton inventory in the Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 0.0549 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% from the previous month; among them, 0.0511 million tons of bonded cotton, a decrease of 2.44% from the previous month, and 0.0038 million tons of non-bonded cotton, a decrease of 12.37% from the previous month.
7. Bloomberg announced the US crop production data forecast for the USDA's September supply and demand report. Analysts average that the US soybean production for 2024/2025 will be 4.596 billion bushels, with an estimated range of 4.477-4.74 billion bushels, and the US 2024/2025 soybean yield will be 53.3 bushels/acre, with an estimated range of 52-54.9 bushels/acre.
8. According to the weekly press report issued by the US Department of Agriculture, for the week ending September 6, 2024, the profit of pressing soybeans in the US was 2.88 US dollars per pot, up 3.4% from a week ago, and had improved for three consecutive weeks before.
9. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's soybean imports in August increased 29% from 9.43 million tons in the same period last year. From January to August this year, China's soybean imports were 70.48 million tons, an increase of 2.8% over the previous year.
10. According to the research and decision of the Zheng Commercial Institute, the transaction fee standard for rapeseed meal futures 2411 and 2501 contracts and rapeseed oil futures 2411 and 2501 contracts will be adjusted to 5 yuan/lot, and the transaction fee standard for closing current positions within the day will be adjusted to 5 yuan/lot.
11. According to the European Commission, as of September 8, the EU imported 2.45 million tons of soybeans in 2024/2025, compared to 2.57 million tons last year. Rapeseed imports were 0.94 million tons compared to 0.64 million tons last year. Palm oil imports were 0.45 million tons compared to 0.8 million tons last year.
12. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in September will be 5.51 million tons, compared to 5.63 million tons the previous week. Brazil's soybean meal export volume in September was 2.02 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 1.67 million tons. Brazil's corn exports in September were estimated at 6.47 million tons, and the previous week's forecast was 5.98 million tons.
Hot news in energy and chemical industry
1. According to the official website of the Osaka Exchange (OSE) on September 10, as of August 31, 2024, rubber (RSS) inventory in warehouses designated by the exchange was 3,894 tons, a decrease of 242 tons from 4,136 tons as of August 20.
2. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's crude oil imports in August were 49.1 million tons, up from the lowest level of 42.34 million tons in July 2022; the average daily crude oil import volume in August was the highest level since August 2023; China's crude oil imports fell 36.1% year on year to 0.367 billion tons in the first eight months of this year.
3. Some investors ask questions on the interactive platform. Does your company's soda ash and caustic soda meet the delivery grade of Zheng Shang? If I meet the delivery grade, can I apply for a delivery factory warehouse? Yuanxing Energy responded that product delivery requires product inspection and other relevant procedures in accordance with delivery requirements, and the company will decide whether to apply for the delivery of the factory warehouse according to market needs and business conditions.
4. OPEC slightly lowered its expectations for oil demand growth in its latest monthly report. Global crude oil demand is expected to grow by 2.03 million b/d this year and 1.74 million b/d in 2025, compared to 2.11 million b/d and 1.78 million b/d, respectively. Total global crude oil demand is expected to reach 0.1042 billion b/d in 2024 and 0.106 billion b/d the following year.
Metal hot information
1. According to data from the China Automobile Association, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.092 million units and 1.1 million units respectively in August, up 29.6% and 30%, respectively. Sales of new energy vehicles reached 44.8% of total sales of new vehicles.
2. Malaysian raw aluminum manufacturer Press Metal said that a fire broke out at its Phase III smelter in Samalaju Industrial Park on the evening of September 9, and 9% of its smelting capacity was affected by the fire. The company expects it to take about four months to resume operation of the damaged furnace. Looking at the whole year, the fire affected about 3% of the company's annual smelting capacity. Press Metal's total raw aluminum production capacity is 1.08 million tons.
3. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper materials in August were 0.415 million tons, down 12.3% from 0.47333 million tons in the same period last year, and 5.3% from July.
4. According to London Metal Exchange (LME) futures and options data, speculators have reduced the net long position of LME copper by 3,540 lots to 6,4877 lots in the week ending September 6. Long positions that only went long were reduced by 16,093 lots to 36,104 lots, the lowest level in six months. Short positions that were only short were reduced by 12,553 lots to 296,327 lots, the lowest level in six months.
5. According to the Chilean Copper Commission, Chile's copper production in 2024 is expected to be 5.41 million tons, up 3% from last year; it is expected to reach 5.7 million tons in 2025, up 6% from last year.
Exaggerating the “period” -- the big secret of commodity trading logic!
1. India's export ban has been extended, and Zheng Tang's bullish sway up?
According to Zhonghui Futures analysis, the market will continue to evaluate the impact of the Brazilian fire. After a sharp rise in raw sugar last week, the fire incident has receded, the profits of the bulls have come to an end, crude oil has weakened sharply, and raw sugar has declined slightly. India plans to extend the sugar export ban for a second year in a row to cope with the prospects of declining sugar production in the country, according to Indian government sources. There are also plans to increase the price of ethanol purchased by oil companies from sugar mills as part of increasing the supply of biofuels. The market relies almost entirely on exports from Brazil. The press data for the first half of August showed that sugar production was 3.11 million lower than market expectations. Sugar market prices continued to rebound at the bottom in the short term, and the fundamentals still need to be continuously assessed in the medium to long term.
2. Asphalt has yet to see clear signs of stabilization. What aspects should the market pay attention to in the future?
According to an analysis of Everbright Futures, production was low due to poor production profits. The average monthly profit of domestic asphalt processing in August was -553.4 yuan/ton, and the total output of domestic asphalt manufacturers was 2.061 million tons, an increase of 0.2% over the previous year and a decrease of 39.8% over the previous year. For September, domestic asphalt refining and discharge production was 1.276 million tons, up 14.23% month on month and 35.5% year on year. Looking at this week's data, as of September 9, the domestic asphalt plant warehouse was 0.996 million tons, a decrease of 12.6% from the previous month. Traders had 2.169 million tons in stock, and 14.7% were removed from the warehouse compared to the previous month. The production and inventory of asphalt itself declined, but production cost support was weak due to the continuous decline in raw material prices. On the demand side, the traditional consumption season is currently shifting from the peak season to the off-season, and the consumption of downstream enterprises is decreasing. The fall in crude oil prices has reduced production costs. In addition, demand for asphalt has weakened, and the downward momentum in the market has increased. No clear signs of stabilization have been seen, but keep in mind that the cost performance ratio of shorting is also declining.
List of recent important futures data and events
1. At 20:30 on September 11, the US announced the annual CPI rate without seasonal adjustment and the monthly CPI rate after the seasonal adjustment for August. Previously, the US unseasonally adjusted CPI rate in July was 2.9%, falling for the fourth month in a row. This is the first time since March 2021 that it has returned to the “beginning of 2”, and the market is expected to be 3%. Watch to see if the consumer price index continues to decline in the current period.
2. At 16:00 on September 12, the IEA released its monthly crude oil market report. The August monthly report shows that global oil demand will increase by 0.97 million b/d this year and 0.953 million b/d next year, slightly lower than the previous estimates of 0.974 million b/d and 979,000 b/d. Watch to see if demand forecasts will continue to be lowered this month.
3. At 20:00 on September 12, Conab announced the results of the 12th Brazilian 2023/24 cereal production survey. According to previous survey results, Brazil's soybean production in 2023/24 was 0.1474 billion tons, lower than the expected 0.1481 billion tons, slightly higher than the previous value of 0.14734 billion tons, while the yield remained unchanged at 3,202 kg/ha. Pay attention to the report's adjustments to Brazil's soybean production estimates.
4. On September 12 at 20:15, the ECB announced the interest rate decision. At 20:45 on the same day, ECB President Lagarde held a press conference on monetary policy. Citi believes that the ECB is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, but it may be a euphemistic reminder that unlike the Federal Reserve, the ECB does not have the dual mission of employment and inflation.
5. At 0:00 on September 13, the USDA released the September monthly supply and demand report. Previously, in August, the US soybean yield for 2024/2025 was expected to be 53.2 bushels/acre, and the market forecast was 52.5 bushels/acre. Recently, StoneX raised its 2024 US yield estimate from 52.6 bushels per acre estimated on August 1 to 53.0 bushels per acre. Pay attention to whether the current USDA monthly supply and demand report raised yield expectations.