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美国CPI驾到、金价冲击历史新高的机会来了!FXStreet首席分析师黄金技术前景分析

The opportunity for US CPI to arrive and the gold price to hit a historical high has come! FXStreet Chief Analyst's analysis of the technical prospects of gold.

FX168 ·  Sep 11 11:07

#Gold Technical Analysis# On Wednesday, September 11, in the Asian market session, spot gold maintained a strong trend, and the current price of gold is trading near $2519 per ounce. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, wrote an analysis of the technical outlook for gold.

Bednarik pointed out that the gold price consolidated above $2500 per ounce with a neutral short-term technical stance. Pay attention to Wednesday's U.S. CPI data.

Spot gold closed up $10.29, or 0.41%, at $2516.38 per ounce on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, gold traders will closely watch the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August. The year-on-year increase in the U.S. CPI for August is expected to decrease from 2.9% to 2.6%, while the year-on-year increase in the core CPI is expected to remain at 3.2%.

Carlo Alberto De Casa, Market Analyst at Kinesis Money, said, "If inflation data is far below expectations and triggers hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut, then the price of gold may hit a new all-time high."

The price of gold reached a historical high of $2531.60 per ounce on August 20th.

The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on September 17th to 18th. CME's "FedWatch" tool shows that the market currently expects a 67% possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut at that meeting, and a 33% possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut.

Due to gold not earning interest, an interest rate cut can reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and increase its investment attractiveness.

Peter A. Grant, Vice President and Senior Metal Strategist at Zaner Metals, predicts that the price of gold will reach a new all-time high.

Short-term technical outlook for gold

Bednarik states that the daily chart of gold provides a neutral to bullish stance. The price of gold encountered buyers near the bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). At the same time, the technical indicators lack directional strength, with the momentum indicator lingering around the 100 level and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) consolidating near 58. Lastly, the 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA continue to rise well below the current price of gold, which limits the downside potential of gold from a broader perspective.

Bednarik adds that the 4-hour chart provides a neutral stance in the short term. The price of gold is trading above the 20-period SMA and 100-period SMA, while the 200-period SMA is rising well below the current price of gold. The technical indicators have turned flat, reflecting a lack of directional conviction, although the fact that the RSI is at 56 suggests that bears have no interest in gold.

(Spot gold 4-hour chart source: FXStreet)

Bednarik gave the latest important support and resistance levels for the gold price:

Support levels: $2507.60/ounce; $2489.60/ounce; $2475.70/ounce

Resistance levels: $2519.75 per ounce; $2531.60 per ounce; $2545.00 per ounce.

At 11:00 Beijing time, spot gold was priced at $2518.76 per ounce.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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