Harris confronts Trump head-on for the first time!

At 9:00 on September 11th, Beijing time, vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party of the usa and former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, had their first showdown in the presidential debate held by the American Broadcasting Company (ABC) in Philadelphia. This high-stakes confrontation is only eight weeks away from the election day in November, and opinion polls show that the competition is very intense.

Unlike the last debate with President Biden, this time, Trump shook hands at the beginning. This is the first meeting between Harris and Trump. Harris always maintained a smile. They debated on multiple topics such as economy, immigration, tax rates, and abortion.

According to a national opinion poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College on September 8th, in the final weeks of the campaign, Trump and Harris have similar levels of support. The poll shows that Trump's support rate is one percentage point higher than Harris, at 48% to 47%. However, due to the margin of error within three percentage points, either candidate has the possibility of winning.

Showdown

Vice President Harris spoke first. She said she has a plan to help American families who worry about the economy and cost of living. She said, "I believe in the ambition, aspirations, and dreams of the American people." She strongly advocated for a "opportunity economy" plan, including proposals to make housing more affordable and expand child tax credits. Harris also criticized former President Trump's proposals, such as reducing taxes for businesses, and believed that these proposals would harm middle-class American families.

Trump's response was to reiterate his intention to impose tariffs on other countries. Taking advantage of his first speaking opportunity, Trump launched a familiar attack on immigration when answering questions about the economy, accusing immigrants from "mental institutions" of taking away job opportunities from African Americans and others. Trump also claimed that Harris has no plans and that she copied Biden's plans.

Regarding the tariff issue, Harris stated that Trump's proposal to impose a comprehensive tariff of up to 20% on all imported goods is "taxing everyday necessities that you rely on to survive." Harris claimed that Trump "unleashed a trade war."

When talking about the immigration issue, Harris said that due to Trump's lobbying of the Republican Party, the bipartisan immigration bills were rejected in Congress. She said, 'Our former president preferred to solve problems rather than raise them.' Trump was also asked how he would expel undocumented immigrants. In response to Trump's claim that immigrants eat dog meat, Harris also responded, 'That's why in this election, I received the support of 200 Republicans who have worked with President Bush, Mitt Romney, and John McCain, including the support of former Vice President Dick Cheney and Congresswoman Liz Cheney.'

Later, Harris said that the Biden administration must 'clean up the mess' left by Trump after 4 years in the White House. She criticized Trump for plunging the United States into 'the worst unemployment crisis since the Great Depression,' 'the most severe attack on our democracy since the Civil War,' and 'the worst public health pandemic in a century.' Mainstream economists believe that her economic plan will promote economic growth, while Trump's economic plan will cause economic contraction.

Trump said that his tariff plan would cost 'billions of dollars, trillions of dollars.' He said that there was 'no inflation, almost no inflation' during his presidency. Trump claimed that the Biden administration has overturned this progress. 'These people in our country will definitely die because of what they have done. They destroyed the economy.'

Then, the debate turned to abortion. Harris said that the government and Trump should not tell women how to treat their own bodies. If elected, Trump will sign a nationwide ban on abortion. Trump said last month that he would not support a statewide referendum to expand reproductive rights in his home state of Florida. Trump said, 'Now, I believe exceptions like rape, incest, and life of the mother... Now the states are voting on that... Every state is voting. It's the people's vote. No longer tied to the federal government.'

Trump criticized the Biden administration's crime record. Harris responded that Trump also has legal issues. She said, 'I think that's absurd coming from someone who has been indicted for crimes against national security, economic crimes, election interference, and has been convicted of sexual assault. His next court appearance is in November, to face his criminal sentence.' Trump responded that he has been politically persecuted and called the charges against him 'fake cases.' Trump added, 'They say bad things about me, and I may have suffered a serious head injury as a result.'

Comparison

Harris, 59, won the Democratic nomination after Biden's reelection campaign. She has served as a U.S. senator, California attorney general, and district attorney, and she is the first woman and person of color to serve as vice president. If she wins, she will be the first woman to serve as president in the 248-year history of the United States. Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, is her running mate.

It is expected that Harris will largely follow Biden's foreign policy on key issues. She pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza but also took a tough stance against Hamas. However, some believe that she is more likely to abandon Biden's current moderate and centrist approach and embrace or even promote the more radical Democratic Party policies of the Obama era.

Harris has formulated an economic plan, including a proposal to cut taxes for most Americans. She also proposed to increase the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Her position on climate and energy is also similar to Biden's, who prioritizes addressing climate change.

Harris promises to increase child tax deductions, add a $6,000 deduction for newborns, provide a $25,000 tax deduction for first-time homebuyers, increase the tax relief for new small businesses tenfold to $50,000, and maintain the income tax relief policy for families with incomes below $400,000.

78-year-old Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt at a campaign rally in July. His support surged as a result and a few days after the attempt, he received the Republican presidential nomination. This is also his third presidential campaign.

Due to his actions during his tenure from 2017 to 2021, he faced four criminal cases and was indicted. He believes this is a political attack on him and his supporters. In May of this year, he became the first former U.S. president to be convicted, and is currently facing charges in the U.S. and the state of Georgia for attempting to undermine the 2020 election. He is also the first president to be impeached twice. Ohio Senator JD Vance is his running mate. Trump is also one of the oldest presidential candidates in the U.S. If elected, he will be the second oldest president after Biden.

In terms of foreign policy, Trump pledged to fundamentally change the U.S.'s relationship with NATO and resolve the conflict in Ukraine. He made immigration a top domestic campaign issue, including a commitment to mass deportations. He also pledged to reverse most of the Biden administration's efforts to address climate change. Meanwhile, Trump faced criticism from Republican colleagues and others for personal attacks on Harris, including racially charged attacks.

Trump promises to make the tax cuts he pushed for during his presidency in 2017 permanent. These tax cuts disproportionately benefit the wealthiest families and large corporations, otherwise they will expire in 2025; further reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 20%, and the tax on companies producing goods in the U.S. to 15%; impose higher tariffs on imported goods.

Impact

After Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate, Trump's previously lead quickly reversed, even entering a defensive position at one point. However, a poll published by The New York Times and Siena College on September 8th showed that Trump's recent support has rebounded, leading Harris by a slight margin of 48% to 47%. This is the first time in nearly a month that Trump has led Harris in a mainstream poll. Gambling odds are also very close, with Trump's chances rebounding to surpass Harris, with 52% and 51% respectively. Trump and Harris are neck and neck in different swing states.

China International Capital Corporation believes that at present, Harris does not significantly shake Trump's voter base, and his lead may come mainly from mobilizing more Democratic, independent, and swing voters. The control of Congress, especially the House of Representatives, will directly affect the progress of fiscal and tax-related policies, and currently the Republicans are still leading. Against this background, the debate on September 11th is crucial, as previous experiences, especially the last debate between Trump and Biden, have shown that in such a stalemate, the debate may directly influence the outcome of the election.

Currently, Harris's policies may support US bond yields and the US dollar, but are not favorable for US stocks. On the other hand, Trump's policies are beneficial for US stocks, cyclical goods, and bitcoin, but may involve intervention in the US dollar. From the perspective of the market and its impact on assets, Harris's policy of maintaining the status quo to a certain extent is likely to have a smaller impact on the market compared to Trump. His approach of directly subsidizing residents through fiscal expansion may lead to an increase in short-term bond issuance and even bring temporary demand-driven inflationary pressure, which is unfavorable for bond assets but supportive of the US dollar. His tax policies are also unfavorable for US stocks, and the bulk supply may continue to be limited.

Under Trump's policies, there is limited downward space for US bond yields due to inflationary constraints. US stocks are supported by tax cuts and are more favorable for cyclical goods. The US dollar benefits from interest rate cuts and policies that may strengthen it, unless administrative intervention promotes competitive devaluation. Bulk supply may increase as well.

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