The finance alliance reported on September 11th (Editor: Hu Jiarong) that affected by the "plunge" in the international oil price overnight, most petroleum stocks weakened today. As of the time of publication, PetroChina (00857.HK), CNOOC (00883.HK), Sinopec Corp (00386.HK), and China Oilfield (02883.HK) fell by 5.45%, 5.32%, 4.99%, and 3.75% respectively.

Note: Performance of petroleum stocks.

On the news front, on the evening of September 10th, the international oil price experienced a sharp decline, with Brent crude oil futures falling by 3.69%, to $69.19 per barrel, hitting a new low since December 2021.

Note: Trend of Brent crude oil futures since December 2021

As of the time of publication, Brent crude oil futures rose by 0.53%, reaching $69.56.

Furthermore, OPEC has released its latest monthly report, in which the organization lowered its forecast for global petroleum demand growth in the next two years for the second consecutive time.

OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 2.03 million barrels per day this year and 1.74 million barrels per day next year. Last month's forecast was 2.11 million barrels per day and 1.78 million barrels per day respectively. Total demand is expected to reach 10.42 billion barrels per day in 2024 and 10.6 billion barrels per day in 2025.

Furthermore, relevant reports indicate that the current record-low level of net long positions in crude oil held by speculators suggests that the downward pressure on oil prices is partially driven by significant financial position changes.

How do institutions view the current softening trend of oil prices?

Goldman Sachs pointed out in its report that the market's expectation of excess crude oil supply may be the catalyst for the softening of oil prices, and it predicted that the crude oil market may transition from tight supply to oversupply by 2025.

Morgan Stanley expects the market to transition from tight supply to balance by the end of 2024, and believes that there may be an oversupply situation in 2025.

Citi's forecast, however, is even more pessimistic, suggesting that oil prices may drop to around $60 per barrel by 2025. It also pointed out that the delay in OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical factors, such as disruptions to Libyan supply, may provide some support for Brent crude at a price of $70-72 per barrel.