The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a research report stating that the export boom may still prevail, with a balanced allocation of dividends and growth. Currently, judging from macroeconomic indicators such as domestic consumer confidence, PMI, and fixed asset investment, domestic automobile demand may not yet have reached an upward inflection point; in terms of industry comparative advantage and corporate export layout, the export boom is expected to continue. Based on performance delivery, segments with a high share of exports and a stable industry pattern are relatively dominant; individual stocks are recommended to select targets with high dividends and undervaluation in the short term, with new growth curves or flexible valuation targets in a timely manner.

Recovery: Exports support the boom, commercial vehicles are relatively dominant, and the dividend style is superior to growth. At the economic level, domestic automobile sales growth slowed from January to August 2024, equipment renewal and trade-in policies supported the total volume, and exports contributed to growth elasticity.

Passenger cars: As domestic demand slows down, competition intensifies, the potential of new cars diverges, and exports contribute more. In 2024, the domestic and export boom in the automotive sector was divided, and the new vehicle product cycle and brand potential of OEMs were also different. The investment logic is as follows: 1) Consumer demand in the domestic passenger car market weakens in stages, competition is still intensifying. OEMs' new car sales performance is fragmented, and at the same time, trade-in to support domestic demand. As of 8.31, the number of subsidy applications has exceeded 0.8 million vehicles; as of 8.31, the number of OEMs with strong cost control capabilities, new platform technology and strong new vehicle cycle potential continued to increase their domestic market share. The sales growth and performance of Huawei continued to increase their domestic market share. Smart Choice, Xiaomi ( 01810), Ideal Auto (02015), etc.; 2) Passenger car exports continued to be booming, but performance elasticity and overseas progress were divided, such as BYD, Zero Sports, and Great Wall Motor (02333).

Commercial vehicles: Export volumes and prices have risen sharply and the pattern is stable. The implementation of subsidy rules will support the recovery of the industry and ease the pressure on leading profits. As the domestic cycle of the commercial vehicle industry weakens (bottoming out), exports benefit from comprehensive competitive advantages and customer expansion to achieve rapid volume growth. At the same time, the implementation of policy rules and subsidies that exceed expectations will further support the recovery of the industry and ease pressure on the profit side of leading companies. In addition, the pattern of the commercial vehicle industry is relatively stable and highly concentrated. Industry chain leaders such as Weichai, Yutong, and Sinotruk have bargaining power, have achieved a high degree of incremental structural performance over 24 years, and undervaluation and high dividends are in line with the current market style under shrinking capital expenditure.

Auto Zero: Performance continues to be high, valuation flexibility is suppressed, and the new growth curve dominates. The auto parts sector benefits from the trend of electric intelligence, incremental business and customer contributions; in 2024, this trend was not reversed, and individual stock performance growth was still relatively high, but declining sector valuations suppressed the overall market, and (medium- to long-term) demand growth declined &; supply expansion or the main reason for the downward valuation of the automotive zero sector, investment targets should be selected to deliver strong performance and high valuation flexibility. The performance side grasps incremental customer projects and new product business contributions. The valuation side preferred new growth curves (smart driving, robots & low white, etc.) horse.